Vegas Fantasy Football Picks

Week 7 NFL Projections

October 17th, 2008 · No Comments

It was a very solid Week Six, so let’s do a quick review of our Week Six forecasts before moving on to Week Seven.

StatsGuru was all over the Bears @ Falcons game. Bears QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, WR’s Rashied Davis and Devin Hester all posted big numbers. Falcons QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White were also huge as predicted.

StatsGuru was all over the Dolphins @ Texans game. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown had a big day, as did the Texans QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels. Starting RB Steve Slaton put up mediocre numbers.

Stats Sleeper WR Kevin Walter also had a big game. We didn’t see a big game from little know WR Patrick Cobb, but who did? His 138-pass yard 2 TD made QB Chad Pennington a good start as well, but he will always be hit or miss.

StatsGuru had a hit and miss day in The Ravens @ Colts game. We hit on QB Payton Manning and WR Reggie Wayne and warned against starting Ravens QB Joe Flacko and Colts RB Joseph who left the game after two carries. We missed on the Ravens the running backs who failed to produce as well as WR Marvin Harrison and TE Dallas Clark.

The Lions @ Vikings game was a mediocre forecast for us. We missed a big day out of WR Bernard Berrian and RB Adrian Peterson who, while rushing for 111 yards, didn’t have a score. AP continues to be our best bust prediction of the season. Lions WR Roy Williams had a quiet day. Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe continues to be a hit and miss. On the flip side, the Lions running backs were horrible and WR Calvin Johnson produced a solid game before being injured in the fourth quarter.

We were true to form on the Raiders @ Saints game as the Saints scored at will and the Raiders struggled all day. We did miss on RB Fargas as he failed to produce after gaining just 35 yards on 10 carries.

In the Bengals @ Jets game, we totally missed on RB Thomas Jones who had a monster day with 78 total yards and three touchdowns. We should have known better as it is the Bengals he was up against. We hope you didn’t start WR Antonio Chapman for the Bengals, as he was nowhere to be found. QB Brett Favre and WR’s Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Crothery were decent though they didn’t produce the numbers we anticipated. We were spot on in suggesting that you should sit all Bengal players.

We were hit and miss on the Panthers @ Buccaneers game. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had his worst game of the season tossing three interceptions and no touchdowns. Bucs RB Warrick Dunn had 115 rush yards on 22 carries. Despite the poor outing by Delhomme, WR Steve Smith was big with six catches for 112 yards. Other than Dunn, the RBs in this game were horrible as forecasted. WR Antonio Bryant, as suggested, has a horrible one catch, 13 receiving yard game for the Bucs.

The Rams @ Redskins forecast was a good call by us. Even though they lost the game, Redskins RB Clinton Portis continues to shine and TE Chris Cooley was active again. Rams RB Steven Jackson produced a 111 total yard day. As predicted, everyone else in this game produced mediocre stat lines. We did expect a good game out of QB Jason Campbell but were let down by a 208 pass yard no TD performance.

We could not have forecasted the Jaguars at Broncos game any better. RB Maurice Jones-Drew, QB David Garrard, QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall all had big days. Stats Sleepers Denver RB Michael Pittman and WR Brandon Stokley as well as
Jaguars WR Matt Jones and TE Marcedes Lewis all produced as predicted.

The Cowboys @ Cardinals wasn’t quiet the shootout we expected but still saw 54 points scored in a very entertaining game. It was the first game in NFL history to be won on a blocked punt for a score. As predicted, everyone except for WR Terrell Owens and RB Edgerin James had a big day. T.O. has now gone under a 100 yards receiving for 10 straight games. Can you say loud mouth bust? Cardinals WR Steve Breaston was Stats Sleeper in Week 5 but didn’t wake up until Week 6 and then posted an 8 catch 102 receiving yard one TD day.

We had another good forecast in the Eagles @ 49ers game. QB Donovan McNabb didn’t reach 350 pass yards but had a good day with 278 pass yards 2 TD’s and 1 INT. RB Correll Buckhalter had a monster game with 178 total yards and 1 TD while WR DeShean Jackson had a bounce back game with 6 catches for 98 yards. Stats Sleeper TE L.J. Smith had a receiving TD for the Eagles We missed a big day out RB Frank Gore but were 100% on the rest of the 49ers.

The Packers @ Seahawks game was a mixed bag for us. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings both had big games as predicted. The Seahawks receiving core were horrible. We missed on RB Julius Jones as the Packers run defense had their first good game of the season. RB Ryan Grant had a decent 90 rushing yards but did it on 33 carries.

The Patriots @ Chargers game was a very one-sided game. As predicted the Chargers starters all produced at a high level while the Patriots did not. Patriots RB Maroney did not dress in this game and continues to be a major bust. Stats Sleeper Darren Spoles didn’t have the impact we predicted.

The Giants @ Browns finished out the week on MNF and the Browns shocked the Super Chumps! We missed on Browns QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis and WR Braylon Edwards who all posted big numbers. The Giants stars posted decent numbers but nothing like we anticipated.

That’s a wrap of Week Six, on to our Week Seven Beasts and Busts

Teams on their Bye week are the Cardinals, Falcons Jaguars and Eagles, so you might be looking for some help as some studs are sitting this week.

CHARGERS (3-3) @ BILS (4-1)

The Chargers crushed the Patriots while the Bills had the week off in Week Six.

The Chargers had it going right from the start against the Patriots and cruised to an easy victory. It was this point last year that they started to turn it on but this is one of those West to East games that you need to be careful of. The Bills have had an extra week to recover from their trip to Arizona and find themselves alone in first place in the AFC East.

Bills QB Trent Edwards has resumed practice and will start against the Chargers who rank second last in pass defense. Start Edwards and WR Lee Evans along with RB Marshawn Lynch in this trap game for the Bolts.

Despite giving up huge numbers on the road to the Cardinals in Week 5 the Bills rank eight in pass defense. This is a scary game for the Chargers and we expect mediocre numbers across the board for everyone except LT2. Remember how they played on the road at Miami in Week Five?

Stats Sleeper

WR Roscoe Parrish is back at practice and will return to his slot position and should be very active in this game.

STEELERS (4-1) @ BENGALS (0-6)

The Bengals were horrible against the Jets, while the Steelers were off in Week Six.

It doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals this week as they face a rested Steelers team. The Steelers had hoped to get RB Willie Parker back for this one but he aggravated his MCL sprain and will be inactive. RB Mewelde Moore will get the start and will be huge in this one. The Steelers and Bengals rank third and fourth respectively against the pass while the Bengals rank 28th to the Steelers 2nd in rush defense.

Start RB Moore for the Steelers, as they will run all day. Temper your expectations for the rest of the Steelers. The Bengals are decent against the pass and the Steelers won’t need to pass in this one.

With QB Ryan Fitzgerald under center sit your Bengals or, better yet, just cut them loose all together.

Stats Sleeper

The top point scorer in this game could very well be the Steelers DF/ST.

TITANS (5-0) @ CHIEFS (1-4)

Both teams are coming off their bye weeks.

The Chiefs have scored 66 points in five games (33 in Week 4) and the Titans are allowing just 56 and look to remain the lone unbeaten team in the league. With Head Coach Jeff Fisher leading the troops don’t expect the Titans to look past the Chiefs with a showdown against the Colts looming in Week 8.

The Chiefs are dead last in rushing defense and now face the Titans version of Thunder and Lightening. The Titans are a team where everyone contributes in their own little way. That being said we see a huge game here from RB Chris Johnson. RB LenDale White has been dealing with a shoulder injury but will also get his share of touches in this game. The Titans won’t need much of a passing game in this one so we would look elsewhere for a QB and WR’s. TE Bo Scaife has emerged as the pass catching TE in Tennessee and is worth a start in this one.

The Chiefs couldn’t move TE Tony Gonzalez at the trade deadline so he remains a Chief. The Titans have given up just one passing TD on the season though so temper your expectations for Gonzo along with all of the Chiefs starters at all positions.

Stats Sleeper

WR Justin Gage should be back for this game and would lead the Titans receivers if he does play. Check the injury report before penciling him into your lineup though.

RAVENS (2-3) @ DOLPHINS (2-3)

The Ravens were pummeled by the Colts, while the Dolphins lost a heart breaker on the road against the Texans in Week Six.

Expect a very low scoring game here.

Despite their dismal performance in Week 6 the Ravens still rank first in both pass and rush defense. We aren’t really sure how that’s possible and while the Dolphins aren’t the Colts, we see another big day out RB Ronnie Brown in this one. Don’t look for RB Patrick Cobbs to have another 138 receiving yard 2 TD game anytime soon. No one has stepped up at wide receiver for the Dolphins so keep them and QB Chad Pennington on the bench.

The Dolphins rank 29th against the pass but the Ravens don’t have the weapons to do any damage here. The Ravens RB situation is a mess and should be avoided until it’s stabilized.

SAINTS (3-3) @ PANTHERS (4-2)

The Saints pounded the Raiders and the Buccaneers dismantled the Panthers in Week Six.

The Panthers will try to rebound against a suspect Saints defense and a Saints team that does not play well on the road. The Saints ranked 21st against the pass so look for a big game out of QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith. RB DeAngelo Williams has a good spot here as well as the Panthers will look to get back to a more balanced attack after abandoning the run against the Bucs.

The Saints continue to put up huge offensive numbers behind QB Drew Brees who is the top passer in the NFL. Saints leading WR Marques Colston is expected back for this game and will be needed against the Panthers who rank second in pass defense in the NFL. As mentioned the Saints are not good on the road. It’s impossible to sit Brees but we expect a modest game out him here. With Colston returning, WR Lance Moore should assume the WR2 role and we expect WR’s Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem to battle for the other balls. The Panthers have problems with speedy running backs and RB Reggie Bush does it all so is a must-start in all leagues.

Stats Sleeper

RB Deuce McAllister continues to be more involved in the Saints offense and has his legs back under him. Consider him a high-end RB2 against the Panthers.

VIKINGS (3-3) @ BEARS (3-3)

The Vikings squeaked past the Lions, while the Bears lost on a last second field goal to the Falcons in Week Six.

This is huge game for both teams as the winner gets a leg up in the NFC North. Both teams boast a stout run defense with the Vikings ranked fourth and the Bears ranked fifth. On the flip side, the Bears rank 27th and the Vikings 15th against the pass.

Bears QB Kyle Orton has eight TD passes in his last four games and has become a quality start as a low-end QB1. He has developed a good chemistry with WR/KR Devin Hester and they should both click against the Vikings pass defense. Rookie RB Matt Forte continues to be a must-start. As good as the Vikings have been at stopping the run, they have given up six rushing TD’s and he is a weapon in the passing game as well. Until WR Brandon Lloyd is back and healthy WR Rashied Davis continues to be a nice option for the Bears. Hard to figure which Bears TE will be the most productive so you may want to avoid this situation.

The Vikings struggled against the hapless Lions and continue to look like anything other than a Super Bowl contender. RB Adrian Peterson torched the Bears in Week 15 last year but that was last year. We expect another mediocre game out of this Super Bust. Look for QB Gus Frerotte to air it out early and often with WR’s Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade both posting good numbers. TE Visanthe Shiancoe continues to be a bust for the Vikings with just 13 catches through six games.

49ers (2-4) @ GIANTS (4-1)

The Eagles blew out the 49ers while the Browns in Week 6 thumped the Giants.

After rolling through a cake schedule the Super Bowl Chumps were humbled on Monday Night Football by the lowly Browns. They will not be in a good mood and will take it out on the 49ers that have to make the cross-country trip for this one. SF ranks 22nd in run defense and have given up seven rushing TD’s. Look for RB Brandon Jacobs to have a monster day here. The 49ers are equally inept at pass defense so look for a good day from WR Plaxico Burress. QB Eli Manning had a horrible game against the Browns and is dealing with a chest injury. Expect pedestrian numbers out of him in this one as the Giants may rush 50 times in this game.

The 49ers continue to free fall after their Week 3 pounding of the Lions and have lost three straight. Make it four in a row here and avoid starting anyone from the Niners.

Stats Sleeper

Aging WR Amani Toomer has become an after thought for the Giants and that’s opened the door for second year WR Steve Smith. If he were available on waivers now would be the time to grab him.

COWBOYS (4-2) @ RAMS (1-4)

The Cowboys lost in OT to the Cardinals and the Rams shocked the Redskins in Week Six.

The Cowboys lost more than the game as QB Tony Romo suffered a broken finger in OT and lost RB Felix Jones to a strained hamstring injury. On Tuesday the NFL suspended DB/PK Adam Jones for detrimental conduct. The Cowboys made the biggest splash at the trade dealing by acquiring WR Roy Williams from the Lions. There was talk that Romo could play on Sunday but we just don’t see it, as they can’t risk further damage to their star QB. 40-year-old QB Brad Johnson will be under center and expect the Cowboys to have him manage the game with short passes and a ton of handoffs. RB Marion Barber and TE Jason Witten will both have a huge game in this one. Despite the match up, look for mediocre numbers from all other Cowboys.

Despite their Week 6 win, this is still the Rams and the Cowboys will bring it against QB Mark Bulger and Co. You can’t sit RB Steven Jackson but temper your expectations as OT Orlando Pace is dealing with a grade 2-quadriceps strain. You can’t start any other Rams in this game.

Stats Sleeper

With WR Tory Holt getting double and even triple coverage from opposing defenses, space has opened up for WR Donnie Avery. The Cowboys are thin at the DB position with the loss of Jones so this is a nice spot for Avery.

LIONS (0-5) @ TEXANS (1-4)

The Lions hung with the Vikings but lost late while the Texans game from behind and beat the Dolphins.

The Lions waved the white flag earlier this week as they traded star receiver Roy Williams and placed starting QB Jon Kitna on injured reserve. This is another “wait til next year” situation for the toothless Cats. The Texans are the best 1-4 team in the NFL.

This is the first ever meeting between these two teams. It could get ugly fast as the Lions rank 31st against the rush, 30th against the pass and have given up 19 touchdowns in 5 games. Start QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson and TE Daniel Owens.

With the loss of Kitna and the trade of Williams, it’s tough to trust any Lions until they solidify their QB situation. You have to start WR Calvin Johnson but he will get lots of coverage, as he doesn’t have any support on the other side now. Temper your expectations for CJ.

Stats Sleeper

The Texans have given up a league high ten rushing touchdowns. RB Kevin Smith is dealing with a shoulder injury so this is a nice spot for RB Rudi Johnson, as the Lions will try to control the clock and keep the Texans potent offense off the field while protecting their horrible defense.

COLTS (3-2) @ PACKERS (3-3)

The Colts destroyed the Ravens while the Packers crushed the Seahawks in Week 6.

The Colts are starting to roll with back-to-back wins in games that they scored 31 points in each. They did lose RB Joseph Addai who had a slight hamstring tear and will be lost 2-4 weeks. RB Dominic Rhodes stepped up and had 73 rush yards and a TD against the stout Ravens D. The Packers rank 27th against the rush, so expect another big game from Rhodes. The Packers rank 7th in pass defense but QB Peyton Manning and WR Reggie Wayne are in a grove and are must starts.

If Packers RB Ryan Grant were ever to step it up, this would be the game to do it. The Colts rank 29th against the rush and the Packers will look to control the clock in this one. The Colts rank 6th against the pass but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings are also in a nice grove so start them both in a game that should be a shoot out.

JETS (3-2) @ RAIDERS (1-4)

The Jets handled the Bengals while the Saints in Week Six blew out the Raiders.

All signs point to this being a blowout. Jets QB Brett Favre is 4-0 against the Raiders and has thrown for 11 touchdowns against them. Jets WR Lavernanues Coles will be gunning for his third straight games of over 100 receiving yards versus the Raiders. The Raiders rank 25th against the pass, so start Favre, Coles and WR Jerricho Crotchery. We said RB Thomas Jones would be a bust last week and responded with a career game. Once this gets out of hand expect the Jets to feed Jones the ball and he is a good start here as the Raiders have given up eight rushing TD’s and rank 19th against the run. Our only caution in this game would be the fact that it’s being played in Oakland and the Jets don’t travel well. Still, get your Jets active in this one.

The Raiders have said that they are going to try out the “Wild Cat” option the Dolphins has been using in recent weeks. RB No Raider can be trusted in this game or any game for that matter the rest of the way.

Stats Sleeper

TE Dustin Keller has a TD reception in back to back games and looks to be Favres’ favorite target when the Jets use the short pass. Take a flier on him if your starting TE is off or slumping.

BROWNS (2-3) @ REDSKINS (4-2)

The Browns shocked the Giants while the Redskins suffered an embarrassing loss to a previous winless and very bad Rams team in Week Six.

This is a very difficult game to forecast as both teams played surprising games last week. The Redskins hadn’t committed an offensive turnover heading in the game and then had three last week. The Browns were averaging 11 points a game and then scored 35 against the Giants.

The one thing that does stand out is the fact that the Browns are 25 against the run. Skins RB Clinton Portis leads the league in rushing yards with 643 yards. Look for Washington to pull back some and run early and often leading to a big game from Portis. The Browns rank 11th against the pass and have given up just 4 TD passes on the year. This is a good spot to sit Redskins QB Jason Campbell as well as his wide receivers. You can’t sit TE Chris Cooley but temper your expectations.

Browns QB Derek Anderson had his best game of the year against the Giants. The Redskins rank 6th against the rush, so the Browns will need to pass. Expect good numbers from Anderson in this one. WR Braylon Edwards draws Redskins CB Shawn Springs who is one of the best cover corners in the league. Being as such we don’t expect a huge game from Edwards here. We don’t recommend RB Jamal Lewis in this one against the tough Redskins rush D.

Stats Sleeper

With WR Edwards drawing coverage from Springs, this could be a break out game for WR Donte’ Stallworth who makes his second start for the Browns. Stallworth had seven targets in his debut last week.

SEAHAWKS (1-4) @ BUCCANEERS (4-2)

The Seahawks were never in their Week 6 loss at home to the Packers while the Bucs made a statement in defeating division rival Carolina.

The Seahawks make their third West to East trip of the season and that’s just brutal. The Bucs are winning without any superstars but with a strong team game and excellent defense.

Seattle has been decimated by injuries and is looking at a lost season. QB Charlie Frey will split time with QB Seneca Wallace and the Seahawks receiving core is a mess. The Bucs are the only team in the league that has yet to give up a rushing TD. Stay away from the Seahawks at all costs.

The Bucs have shown a very balanced attack but no one puts up any kind of Fantasy numbers you can write home about. They did sign a full back this week so RB Earnest Graham will move back to his normal RB position for this one and is a good RB1 start in this position. After that, there is not much of anything in this game other than the Bucs DF/ST unit.

Stats Sleeper

TE Alex Smith came to life somewhat in Week 6 and seems to have a good connection with QB Jeff Garcia at the helm. He is worth a flier as the Bucs receiving core is a mess.

BRONCOS (4-2) @ PATRIOTS (3-2)

The Broncos committed three turnovers and lost the Jaguars while the Patriots got pummeled on the road in San Diego in Week Six.

The Broncos defense has been suspect all year and rank 26th against the rush and are last against the pass. Look for the Patriots to throw early to open up some running lanes for RB Sammy Morris who will start for the Patriots. We haven’t mentioned his name all year but this is a good spot for WR Randy Moss and QB Matt Cassels is a decent start at QB in this one.

The Patriots were torched by QB Philip Rivers last week and the Broncos will look to pass first as their running core is suspect and injured. Aging RB Michael Pittman looks to start for the Broncos and the Patriots are giving up an average of 119 rush yards a game. That being said we can’t recommend any of the Broncos RB’s in this game. Starting QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall with confidence in this one.

Stats Sleeper

WR Eddie Royal looks to be back for this game and the speedy WR will have room to roam with so much attention being paid to Marshall.

That’s it for Week Seven! As always, StatsGuru hopes your week is injury free and point prosperous!

StatsGuru

Tags: NFL Weekly Projections

0 responses so far ↓

  • There are no comments yet...Kick things off by filling out the form below.

Leave a Comment