Last week, we gave Mother Nature a little more credit than we should have and the result was a mixed bag of success. Let’s review our Week 16 Projections and then move on to the final week of the NFL regular season.

COLTS 31 @ JAGUARS 24

The Colts clinched their spot in the playoffs by scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to beat the Jaguars. We promised you could trust your Colts with your playoff lives and they certainly delivered. QB Peyton Manning and WR Reggie Wayne both had the big game we suggested that they would. WR Anthony Gonzalez didn’t quite reach the high end WR2 numbers we predicted with just four catches for 38 yards. Dallas Clark produced TE1 numbers better then we predicted, but we did tell you tell you to make sure you started him.

With nothing to play for, the Colts will be risky starts in Week 17. We expected a decent effort from the Jaguars and we got it for three quarters. QB David Garrard produced well above the low end QB2 numbers we predicted. We suggested that RB Maurice Jones-Drew would score 20 or so points and he produced as expected. WR Dennis Northcutt had another surprisingly good game but everyone else from the Jaguars receiving core were the busts we expected them to be.

RAVENS 33 @ COWBOYS 24

The Ravens spoiled the Cowboys celebrations on SNF with a huge win. We told you there were better options at the QB position than Tony Romo, but also suggested decent numbers from him in this game. If your league is lenient on INT’s Romo produced the 20 points that we forecasted he would. RB Tashard Choice was better than the RB2 we suggested and MBIII was the bust we expected.

WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten both produced, spot on, the numbers we suggested they would. As predicted, the rest of the Cowboys receiving core was a bust. QB Joe Flacco did a good job of controlling the game for the Ravens but produced the Fantasy numbers we predicted with just 149 yards and 1 TD.

The Ravens backfield was stuffed throughout the first 54 minutes of this one as we suggested it would be. They certainly turned it on in the last four minutes though. Through the first 54 minutes RB Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain had a combined 88 yards and no touchdowns. In the last four minutes, and on two rushing attempts, they added 159 yards and two touchdowns. Go figure! We suggested a decent game from WR Derrick Mason and he played through pain to catch six passes for 66 yards and 1 TD. TE Todd Heap was the bust we suggested we would be.

BENGALS 14 @ BROWNS 0

We suggested that the Bengals were still fighting to win games and that there were some sneaky starts in the Bengals lineup this weekend. RB Cedric Benson had the solid game we suggested with 171 yards. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t measure up as he passed for just 55 yards and 1 TD. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh was a total bust as he was held without a catch. We told you that no one from the Browns was worth starting and Cleveland managed just 182 total yards of offense. The Browns haven’t scored an offensive TD in twenty straight quarters now.

DOLPHINS (9-5) @ CHIEFS (2-12)

Despite bitter cold and high winds, this game turned into a shootout. QB Tyler Thigpen produced as the QB1 we suggested he would with 377 total yards and 3 TD’s but his numbers were offset somewhat by 3 INT’s. WR Dwayne Bowe was a bust while TE Tony Gonzalez was a decent start with seven catches for 64 yards and 1 TD. RB Larry Johnson produced better than expected low-end RB2 numbers with 108 yards and 1 TD. For the Dolphins, RB Ronnie Brown didn’t reach our 15 point expectation has he managed just 53 total yards. QB Chad Pennington was better than we expected with 235 yards and 3 TD’s all of which went to his TE’s. The Dolphins WR core was the bust we predicted. TE David Martin produced as mid-range TE2 with 11 yards and a TD but it was TE Anthony Fasano who did the damage with three catches for 47 yards and 2 TD’s. Stats Sleeper RB Ricky Williams had a big day with 84 total yards and 1 TD.

SAINTS (7-7) @ LIONS (0-14)

Despite being out of the playoffs, the Saints pounded the Lions as we suggested they would. The Saints stars, other than WR Lance Moore produced as we predicted. QB Drew Brees passed for 351 yards and 2 TD’s. RB Pierre Thomas had 103 total yards and 1 TD. We told you to start WR Marques Colston as a high-end WR1 and he produced with nine catches for 99 and 2 TD’s. Moore was a disappointment for us though with just 4 catches for 36 yards. Both Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller had the decent mid-range TE2 type numbers we suggested. We didn’t expect the Lions to give up in this game but, for all intents and purposes, they did. QB Dan Orlovsky was horrible with just 125 yards, no touchdowns and 2 INT’s. RB Kevin Smith produced better than the mid-range RB2 numbers we forecasted with 111 yards and 1 TD. WR Calvin Johnson was a mega bust with four catches for 64 yards…. sorry about that recommendation!

CARDINALS 7 PATRIOTS 47

For the second week in a row, the Patriots whipped their opponent senseless. This time it was the Cardinals on the other end of the beat down. We told you to sit your Cardinal players and hopefully you did just that. The Cardinals had just 108 yards of total offense until WR Larry Fitzgerald scored the Cards lone TD on a 78-yard bomb from QB Matt Leinhart. If you started Fitz, that saved your day though we wonder why he was even in the game with six minutes left in a blowout. QB Matt Cassel exceeded our expectations again as he passed for 345 yards and three touchdowns. Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Lamont Jordan all contributed for the Patriots again this weekend with Jordan being the best of the bunch with 78 yards and two TD’s. WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker both produced slightly better than the low double digit points we forecasted. Like Fitzgerald, Moss produced with a swing pass that went for a 76 yard TD.

STEELERS 14 @ TITANS 31

We missed on this game by suggesting it would be a defensive battle as the Titans locked up home field advantage in the AFC by beating the Steelers. If you stuck with your stars in this one, you were rewarded with mid-range, double-digit points.

49ERS 17 @ RAMS 16

The 49ers made a furious run in the final four minutes and scored twice to beat the hapless Rams. QB Shawn Hill was horrible for most of this game but ended up producing QB2 type numbers with 216 yards and 2 TD’s to offset his 3 INT’s. As we expected, RB Frank Gore was inactive this weekend. RB DeShaun Foster was mediocre with 53 total yards. WR Isaac Bruce produced the high end WR2 numbers we expected with seven catches for 61 yards and 1 TD. TE Vernon Davis was a bust with one catch for 17 yards. For the Rams, QB Marc Bulger produced the QB2 numbers we expected with 227 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. RB Steven Jackson came close to the 15 points we projected with 119 total yards. WR Torry Holt was limited to four catches for 55 yards. Stats Sleeper, WR Donnie Avery had five catches for 56 yards.

CHARGERS 41 @ BUCCANEERS 24

The Chargers did exactly what they had to do and pounded the Bucs to put pressure on the Broncos who then got beat by the Bills. We suggested a big day for QB Philip Rivers and he produced with 287 yards and four TD’s. RB LT2 had 110 total yards but did not score. WR Vincent Jackson produced, as we predicted, with seven catches for 111 yards. TE Antonio Gates lived up to the TE1 recommendation we gave him with four catches for 46 yards and 2 TD’s. We suggested QB Jeff Garcia would be back for this game but warned against starting him. Garcia was average with 232 yards and 1 TD with 2 INT’s but ended up with decent numbers thanks to 45 rushing yards and 1 TD. RB Warrick Dunn and RB Cadillac Williams were both the busts we predicted that they would be. WR Antonio Bryant produced the WR1 numbers we expected again this weekend with 127 yards and 1 TD. TE Jerramy Stevens, as suggested, was a bust with two catches for 21 yards.

BILLS (6-8) @ BRONCO (8-6)

The Bills surprised the Broncos and their win sets up a nightmare rematch for the Broncos against the Chargers for the AFC West title. KARMA! Bet the house on the Chargers! QB Trent Edwards produced the 15 points we forecasted. RB Marshawn Lynch was on his way to a big game before getting injured and had 34 yards and 1 TD. WR Lee Evans was a bust in this one with just two catches for 19 yards. QB Jay Cutler was the good, low end QB1 we suggested with 359 yards passing and 1 INT but he scored twice on the ground and finished with 30 rushing yards to pad his stats. The Denver backfield lost two more backs in RB Selvin Young and P.J. Pope. That makes eight on the year in Denver. It will all be vying for touches again this weekend. We told you to stay away from this situation. We told you that you shouldn’t give up on WR Brandon Marshall and he produced with ten catches for 129 yards. WR Eddie Royal had the WR2 numbers we expected but his bottom line was aided by 71 yards on an end around. TE Tony Scheffler bounced back as a mid range TE2 with 56 yards.

JETS 3 @ SEAHAWKS 13

The Jets lost their fourth game on the West coast this season and looked horrible in doing so. We expected a decent day out of QB Brett Favre but he was horrible with just 187 yards and 2 INT’s. RB Thomas Jones also let down his Fantasy owners with just 96 total yards. We suggested a decent day from WR Jerricho Cotchery as a mid range WR2 and he had six catches for 81. We didn’t expect much from WR Laveranues Coles and he managed 6o yards on five catches. TE Dustin Keller was a bust with one catch for two yards. We expected QB Seneca Wallace to post decent low-end QB2 numbers and he did with 175 yards and 1 TD. RB Maurice Morris produced better than we expected with 116 yards while RB Julius Jones was the bust we predicted. The Seahawks receivers were the busts we forecasted and TE John Carlson had 12 yards and one TD.

TEXANS 16 @ RAIDERS 27

We certainly didn’t see this clunker coming from the Texans. QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton and WR Andre Johnson all failed to live up to expectations. The better Fantasy producers in this game were the Raiders…sorry…. we just missed all together on this one!

FALCONS 24 @ VIKINGS 17

The Falcons win and losses by the Cowboys, Bucs and Eagles earned them a wild card berth and one of the best turn around seasons a team has ever had. We thought that whichever of the leagues dominating backs had the better day would be the determining factor in this game and it was. For the Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson was better than the decent high end QB2 we suggested with 309 total yards and 2 TD’s. He did lose two fumbles but they hurt his NFL team more than his Fantasy owners. RB Adrian Peterson let down his Fantasy owners with just 82 total yards and was held out of the end zone while losing a fumble. We suggested the Vikings receiving core couldn’t be trusted and WR Bernard Berrian and WR Bobby Wade were both a bust. TE Visanthe Shianco had one of his “boom” weeks with seven catches for 136 yards and 2 TD’s making him better than the high end TE2 we suggested. For the Falcons, we expected a bounce back game from QB Matt Ryan but he was mediocre with 134 yards and 1 TD. RB Michael Turner was good as expected with 70 yards and 1 TD. WR Roddy White didn’t come close to our expectations and was a bust with three catches for 24 yards.

EAGLES 3 @ REDSKINS 10

The Redskins defense cooled of the Eagles and QB Donovan McNabb holding him to just 230 yards and no touchdowns. We expected RB Brian Westbrook to bounce back in this game and while he didn’t score he did have 116 total yards. WR DeSean Jackson, WR Kevin Curtis and TE L.J. Smith all had the mediocre games we suggested they would. The Redskins were equally inept at scoring in this one though RB Clinton Portis did come through with 81 total yards and the games lone TD. TE Chris Cooley was a bust with four catches for 28 yards. As suggested, the rest of the Redskins were a bust in this game.

PANTHERS 28 @ GIANTS 34 OT

The Giants and Panthers needed OT to decide the NFC Champ and the Giants got back to what they do best and pounded the ball on the ground. As was the case with a lot of games this past weekend, the weather was miserable and we expected a low scoring game. We were wrong as the two teams combined for 62 points. QB Eli Manning had the modest game we suggested with 181 and 1 TD. RB Brandon Jacobs was better than the high end RB2 we predicted with 87 yards and three touchdowns. The Giants WR core posted the mediocre numbers we expected. TE Kevin Boss produced decent TE2 numbers with 46 yards and 1 TD. QB Jake Delhomme was the bust we predicted with 185 yards and no touchdowns. As we expected, the Panthers wanted to run the ball and they did so with better success than we expected. RB DeAngelo Williams was a Fantasy stud and exceeded our expectations with 108 yards and four touchdowns. RB Jonathan Stewart was the bust we predicted. WR Steve Smith had the clunker we predicted with three catches for 47 yards. It’s not a Fantasy stat but from the Most Amazing Stat Of The Season category comes this nugget: On the Giants game tying drive in the fourth quarter, Panthers CB Ken Lucas was flagged for the teams FIRST defensive pass interference penalty of the year. Amazing!

PACKERS 17 @ BEARS 20

The Bears kept their slim playoff hopes alive with win in overtime as the Packers let another late game lead slip away. This game was played in the coldest conditions ever recorded in a game at Soldier Field. QB Kyle Orton was the bust we predicted with 142 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s. With the Bears needing a win to stay in contention, RB Matt Forte played in this one and produced 101 yards and 1 TD. The Bears receiving core was the bust we predicted. TE Greg Olsen was their best receiving option with 49 yards and 1 TD. QB Aaron Rodgers had the low end QB1we expected with 260 yards and two TD’s with 1 INT. RB Ryan Grant produced the mid range RB2 numbers we suggested with 81 total yards and 1 TD. WR Greg Jennings caught 6 passes for 38 yards and 1 TD. The rest of the Packers were busts as predicted.

That’s a wrap of Week 16. Let’s move on to the always unpredictable Week 17 and see who’s going to naughty and who’s going to be nice during the Holiday Season. Several teams still have something to play for this weekend so get to it.

RAMS (2-13) @ FALCONS (10-5)

The Rams gave up two late scores and lost to the Niners while the Falcons cashed in on the Vikings “giving” spirit to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16.

The Falcons completed their improbable run to playoffs by forcing four fumbles by the Vikings last week. Their win, coupled with the Panthers loss puts them in position to win the NFC South and a first round bye. The Panthers and Falcons both play a morning game and will both need to play their starters throughout as the winner gets the bye. That’s very good news for Fantasy owners. We expect the Falcons to pummel the Rams in this one and they should score at least 41 points. Expect a huge game out of RB Michael Turner who should play for three quarters of the game. He will feast on the Rams 28th ranked run defense that has given up 23 rushing touchdowns. Only the Chiefs (24) and Lions (30) have given up more rushing touchdowns this season. The Rams pass defense isn’t much better and ranks 23rd in the league. We expect that QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White will want to get back on the same page as the two have failed to connect in the past two games. They want to be sharp heading into the playoffs so expect decent numbers out of both of them. They should both be started as a high end QB2 and WR2 at their position.

The Rams have lost nine straight and don’t have much to play for here. They can play a bit of a spoiler role but lack the weapons to do so. QB Marc Bulger will be running for his life as DE John Abraham looks to add to his sack total that leads all defensive ends at 16.5 in total. Look elsewhere for your starting QB. RB Steven Jackson has been a huge bust this season but still has a chance to get to 1,000 rushing yards if he can manage 119 against the Falcons 21st ranked run defense. With little else to play for, we expect the rams will try to get him there. Double check the injury report to make sure Jackson is starting though as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. Start him as a low end RB1 as long as he plays. Other than Jackson, no one from the Rams should be in your starting rosters this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

This game should be well in hand early on for the Falcons so expect them to rest Turner in the second half. If you are stuck for a #2 RB or flex position player, you should consider Jerious Norwood against the hapless Rams.

Weather: Indoor game.

PATRIOTS (10-5) @ BILLS (7-8)

The Patriots crushed the Cardinals while the Bills shocked the Broncos in Week 16.

The Patriots need a win and a loss by either the Dolphins or the Ravens to make the playoffs. The Bills, after a huge start to the season, are done. No one has scored more points than the Patriots over the past two weeks as they have racked up 96 points in those games. We expect them to continue to lay it on the hapless Bills this weekend as they win and hope for the best. QB Matt Cassel has been a Fantasy Playoff MVP with seven TD’s in his past two games. The Bills rank 16th in pass defense but were torched for 359 pass yards by Denver last week. Even with inclement weather forecasted, expect Cassel to produce mid range QB1 numbers in this one. As good as the Patriots passing game has been of late, their running game has set them up for victory. That shouldn’t change this weekend as the Bills rank 19th against the run and have given up 17 rushing TD’s. The problem here is trying to determine which of the three Patriot backs will produce the best. RB Sammy Morris, RB Lamont Jordan and RB Kevin Faulk have all posted good Fantasy numbers in the past two weeks. They should all post low-end double-digit Fantasy points so start them if you have them. The same goes for WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker. Start them both and enjoy the 15 or so points.

The Bills put up a surprisingly good fight and played the spoiler against the Broncos last week. Can they do the same this weekend? We doubt it. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Bills for weeks now and the Patriots have too many weapons for the Bills to compete with in this game. They will most likely be playing from behind in this game and that is not their strong suit. QB Trent Edwards posted decent QB2 numbers last week and we expect similar results this weekend. One thing he has going for him is that, barring injury, he should play the whole game whereas several other QB’s won’t this weekend. With nothing on the line we don’t expect the Bills to start RB Marshawn Lynch this weekend. Lynch was forced out of their game in the second half last week because of the shoulder injury that has plagued him for a couple of weeks now. RB Fred Jackson should get the start here and he was impressive in carrying the load in the second half last weekend. The Patriots do have a solid run defense though so expect Jackson to produce modest RB2 type numbers in this one.

WR Lee Evans has left his Fantasy owners high and dry over the past several weeks but needs just 46 receiving yards to top the 1,000 mark for the second time in his career. He should get and a few more but treat him as a mid range WR2 in this one. WR Josh Reed had a season high nine catches and 79 yards last weekend. He is however to inconsistent to trust as anything more than a WR3 in any game. No TE, from either team, should be started in this game.

CHIEFS (2-13) @ BENGALS (3-11-1)

The Bengals shutout the Browns while the Chiefs battled the Dolphins but came up short in week 16.

This is a battle of two teams that have been playing out the string for quite some time. It’s a meaningless game in the standings but there is some Fantasy to be had. The Bengals have won two straight games and would love to close out the season, at home, on a high. The Chiefs still rank 30th on both sides of the ball so look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to put up decent numbers in this. Start him as a low end QB2 and expect 15 or so points. The Chiefs have just nine QB sacks all season and will break the all time record low of 13 set by the 1981 Baltimore Colts so Fitzpatrick will remain upright for most of this game. RB Cedric Benson has had back-to-back solid weeks and should make it three in a row as he looks to get a contract extension with the Bengals and have a home in 2009. He is battling a bit of a sore ankle so check his status closer to game time.

The Bengals had just nine pass attempts last weekend in very windy conditions. The wind won’t be as much of a factor this weekend so we expect WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh to close out a disappointing season on a high note. He isn’t a tier one receiver with Fitz at QB but should post 60 or so yards with a possible touchdown. It looks like WR Chad Johnson will miss his second straight game as he deals with a slight hamstring injury and should not be started in any format even if he plays. WR Chris Henry has made the most of his chances with Johnson out and has a TD in back to back games. That being said, Henry can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR3 in this one. Stay away from anyone at the TE position for the Bengals.

The Chiefs have battled hard the past few weeks but have nothing to show for it. This could be a bit of a shoot out so there is some value on the Chiefs offense. QB Tyler Thigpen tried to force the ball a bit much last week and offset his 2 TD’s with 3 INT’s. We expect he will be much more accurate in somewhat better weather conditions this weekend. He has been lights out on the road in his last four games and can trusted as a high end QB2 in this one. RB Larry Johnson needs 144 yards to reach 1,000 on the season. It’s not the watermark it once was but it’s still a level backs try to reach. The Bengals struggle on run defense so start Johnson as a low end RB1 here. WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez should both be started as #1’s at their position in this game and should reach decent double-digit points.

Weather: Mostly sunny and cold at 40 degrees.

BEARS (9-6) @ TEXANS (7-8)

The Bears beat the Packers in overtime while they had their four game wining streak snapped by the lowly Raiders.

The Bears still have a shot at making the playoffs but need a win and help to get there. The Texans have been eliminated from contention for several weeks now. The Texans are a different team at home as is evident by their 5-2 home field record. We expect they will give it their all as they try to finish at .500 for the season. QB Matt Schaub can reach 3,000 passing yards for the first time in his career with 285 against the Bears. With WR Andre Johnson averaging 134 yards per game at home, he and Schaub should both bounce back here. Start Schaub as a high end QB2 and Johnson as a high end WR1. Since a huge Week 13, RB Steve Slaton has seen his point production drop in each of the past three games. He faces a very stout Bears run defense this week and seems to have worn down in his rookie season. You probably have to start him but we suggest that you temper your expectations, as we don’t see much production from the Texans ground game. TE Owen Daniels should be very active in this game as well and should be started as a low end TE1.

The Bears offense continues to hold them back from being a serious contender and we still feel they are frauds because of it. The Bears are winning despite QB Kyle Orton and he should not be started in any format this week. RB Matt Forte should be started as a high end RB1 as the Bears will lean on him heavily with their playoff lives on the line. The Texans rank 25th against the run so start Forte and enjoy. No one else from the Bears should be trusted in your starting roster this weekend.

Weather: Sunny and 60 degrees.

GIANTS (12-3) @ VIKINGS (9-6)

The Giants beat the Panthers to secure home field advantage while the Vikings fumbled away their chance to win the NFC North with a loss to the Falcons in Week 16.

The pressure is squarely on the shoulders of the Vikings as a win would clinch the NFC North and make them the #3 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Giants will get a week off after this game to rest up but it will be interesting to see how much of an effort they put in here. We don’t see the Giants starters playing a complete game and would be surprised to see QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs or WR Domenik Hixon playing much more than a half. We suggest you look for other options for all of these guys. RB Derrick Ward needs 52 yards to reach the 1,000 mark for the season. He would join Jacobs at that level and the tandem would be just the fourth in history to achieve the mark. The others are the ‘72 Dolphins, the ‘76 Steelers and the ‘85 Browns. The Giants would like to join that club and, despite going against the leagues #1 run defense, they will. Start Ward as a high end RB2 and expect 70 or so yards and a possible TD. TE Kevin Boss can also be trusted in this game as a low end TE1 but after that, you should sit your Giants.

The Vikings will have to go all out and they need to hang onto the ball. They had four fumbles against the Falcons and were never able to sustain a drive because of them. For some reason, defensive players seem to play more in meaningless games than offensive players so a win in this game is far from a lock for the Vikings. The Giants run defense has been gashed in three consecutive weeks and the Vikings will need a big game from Adrian Peterson if they stand any chance to win this game. His lack of TD’s and fumbles lost have been a source of disappointment for his Fantasy owners but AP needs to be started as a high end RB1 here and he should produce high end, double digit Fantasy points.

QB Tavrvaris Jackson has been a stud the last two and a half weeks but will find things a little more difficult this weekend. With so much on the line we expect the Vikings will shorten their play book and pound away on the ground. This will limit Jackson somewhat and we expect him to drop back to the 15-point range. The Vikings receiving core will also be limited in this one and no one should be considered as much more than a low end WR2. TE Visanthe Shiancoe had a career game last weekend and has caught 13 passes and three TD’s since Jackson took over. Start him as a low end TE1 and hope the chemistry continues.

Stats Sleeper: With the Vikings pounding away on the ground, consider RB Chester Taylor as a high-end flex2 in this game. He doesn’t get many carries, but he’s a goal line threat and catches balls out of the backfield. Expect 60 or so total yards and 1 TD from Taylor in this one.

Weather: Indoor game.

PANTHERS (11-4) @ SAINTS (8-7)

The Panthers lost in OT to the Giants while the Saints rolled over the Lions in Week 16.
The Panthers are still playing for the NFC South division title and a first round bye. A loss sends them out on the road on Wild Card Weekend. With the Falcons playing the lowly Rams, the Panthers won’t be able to let up in this game. The Saints want to get Drew Brees the single season passing record so there’s a lot on the line for both teams. Expect this game to be a shoot out. The Panthers will continue to do what they do best and that’s run, run and then run some more. The Saints have played decent run defense for the most part this season but did give up 111 yards last week to the Lions Kevin Smith. No one has been better at running the ball in the last eight weeks than Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams. Coincidence or not, Williams hot streak started after he was held to 66 yards against the Saints back in Week 7. Since then he has scored 16 touchdowns in eight games on the ground. Start him and enjoy.

Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart has fallen off the pace somewhat in recent weeks but should be trusted as a mid range RB2 or high-end flex2 in this game. While some QB’s may not play the entire game this week, Jake Delhomme will. That adds some value to him and he can be trusted as a low end QB1 this weekend against the suspect Saints pass defense that ranks 21st. WR Steve Smith will rebound from a sub par outing in Week 16 and should be started as a high end WR1 in this game.

The Saints coaching staff has stated that winning the game is more important than Brees individual record chase. That’s towing the line in what is a team sport but is nothing more than just lip service at this point. Expect the Saints to do everything they can to get Brees one of the most coveted records in the NFL. Brees is a slight tick above Chargers QB Philip Rivers as the Fantasy MVP at the QB position and he can solidify the top spot with a monster game against the Panthers. We are torn between Brees and Rivers as the #1 QB start this weekend but give a slight edge to Rivers. That being said, you need to start Brees and you can expect over 300 pass yards and at least 2 TD’s.

It should be noted that the Panthers expect to be without both their starting defensives end this week and that will make Brees an even better starter. RB Pierre Thomas has been lights out over his past six games but did not practice on Wednesday due to wrist and back injuries. The Panthers rank 22nd against the run and were gashed by the Giants last week. Provided that Thomas is healthy and starts, he can be trusted as a low end RB1 in this game. WR Marques Colston should be active as a high end WR1 and WR Lance Moore can be started as a high end WR2. With TE Jeremy Shockey dealing with an ankle injury we would sit him down and start TE Billy Miller as a low end TE1 for the pass happy Saints this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

TE Jeff King could be limited in this game with a knee injury. If he can’t go or is limited, you may want to consider TE Dante Rasario. Rosario hasn’t done anything since his Week One heroic effort against the Chargers but, who knows, the Panthers could need another late game miracle in this one.

Weather: Indoor game.

BROWNS (4-11) @ STEELERS (11-4)

The Browns were shutout by the Bengals while the Titans in Week 16 blew out the Steelers.

This is a meaningless game for both teams but the Steelers may want to regroup a bit here after getting crushed by the Titans last week. The Browns streak without an offensive TD has now stretched to five games. They are also down to recently signed, fourth string QB Brad Gradkowski as Ken Dorsey has been very ineffective and is dealing with a slight concussion and a rib injury. The Steelers will not play their starters for very long in this game as they are locked into the two seed in the AFC. Both QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Willie Parker will play about half the game and should not be started. QB Byron Leftwich will do mop up duties once Big Ben sits down but should not be considered as your starting QB in this one. RB Mewelde Moore should be considered as a low end RB1 here as we expect that he’ll get the most work of any Steeler in this game. The Browns give up and average of 150 yards a game on the ground. The Steelers won’t be passing much in this one so you want to avoid their receiving core all together. The Steelers top Fantasy point producer will most likely be their defense this weekend.

There’s no value on offense for the Browns as we expect them to just go through the motions and continue their lackluster play. What was a promising season back in August has turned into a disaster and the Browns will just want to get out of Pittsburgh with their health. The Browns will make it six straight games without a TD on offense when all is said and done in this one.

Weather: Partly sunny and 36 degrees.

RAIDERS (4-11) @ BUCCANEERS (9-6)

The Raiders beat up on the Texans while the Bolts in Week 16 battered the Bucs.

Going into Week 14 the Bucs were 9-3 and talking about winning the NFC South. Three weeks and three straight loses later they’re now fighting just to make the playoffs. They need to win and a loss by the Cowboys to get in. This is a morning game and the Cowboys play in the afternoon so the Bucs have everything to play for. Meanwhile, the Raiders go West to East and try to win two straight to close out another dismal season. The Raiders are hurting on defense and could be without CB Nnamdi Asomuga for this one as he is dealing with a neck injury. That bodes well for QB Jeff Garcia and we see this as a good spot for him. He will play the entire game and can be started as a low end QB1 in this one. The Bucs split touches nearly 50/50 between RB Warrick Dunn and RB Cadillac Williams last week but that could change this week. With so much on the line and Williams the fresher of the two backs, look for him to produce better numbers. That being said, neither of them can be started as a RB1. Consider Williams a high end RB2 and Dunn as a low-end flex2 here. WR Antonio Bryant has been one of the hottest receivers in football over the past three weeks and should be considered as a low end WR1 again this weekend. The Bucs TE situation can’t be trusted again this weekend.

The Raiders showed some fight last week and played their best, all around, game of the season. Just how much they have left in the tank while making the cross-country trip is the big question. We don’t expect much from the Raiders this weekend. The Bucs defense has been brutal over the past three weeks but we see them putting up a strong effort here. Not only are the Bucs fighting for their playoff lives but this is the final regular season game for Monte Kiffin as the Bucs defensive coordinator. Kiffin is the architect of the Tampa 2 cover defense and has been with the team for 13 years. You know the defense will be up for this one with all facts considered. Sit any Raider who may still be lingering on your roster.

Weather: Mostly sunny and 78 degrees.

TITANS (13-2) @ COLTS (11-4)

The Titans dismantled the Steelers while the Colts came from behind to beat the Jaguars in Week 16.

We’ve tried to find any reasons why either of these teams would play their starters beyond the first quarter but there aren’t many. The Titans are locked in as the #1 seed while the Colts are locked in as the #5 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Titans get a week off while the Colts will go on the road to Denver or San Diego for their Wild Card game next weekend. Knowing they have a week off may make the Titans want to keep their starters in a little longer to stay sharp but seeing any of them playing beyond the first half would be a shock. With the Colts having to get right back it next week so playing their stars beyond the first quarter is even more remote. A win would make the Colts the first team in NFL history to have 12 or more wins in six consecutive seasons.

QB Peyton Manning is also a candidate for league MVP but, with a much bigger prize still out there, we doubt either of those factors will hold much weight. Manning will play until he passes for 94 yards to put him over 4,000 on the season and that will be it for him. After that, it’s Jim Sorgi who hasn’t played a down in the regular season this year. Both Manning and Sorgi should be benched here. You also can’t trust any of the Colts running backs this weekend either. Dominic Rhodes won’t dress, Joseph Addai will get ten carries at the most, and then Chad Simpson and Najeh Davenport will split the rest of the carries. Figure in the Titans run defense and there is no value here at all. You will also have to sit WR’s Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison as neither of them will play much, if at all.

Since someone has to line up at WR for the Colts, Anthony Gonzalez could get a lot of work here and can be started as a high end WR2. TE Dallas Clark has been the best TE in Fantasyland over the past two weeks. Clark needs 41 yards to break the single season receiving record for a Colts TE that was set by John Mackey in 1964. Expect him to reach that mark, possibly get a TD and then sit out the rest of the game. Starting anyone from the Colts is a risky move in the over all scheme of things.

The same can be said for the Titans as they come off a very physical game against the Steelers, they’re on the road and they have nothing to play for. QB Kerry Collins isn’t a reliable Fantasy QB when he plays a full game so you aren’t going to get much out him in the quarter or so that he plays. Collins will then hand the ball over to Vince Young and that’s certainly nothing to hang you hat on. VY will get some snaps in, get some rushing yards and complete a few passes. Double-digit Fantasy points from him would be a surprise. How the Titans use Thunder and Lightening in this game is hard to forecast. We don’t see either of them getting much work and suggest that you should avoid them both. The Titans will also rest their mediocre receiving core and TE Bo Scaife so these are situations to avoid as well.

Stats Sleeper

Against a porous Indy run defense you should consider Titans back up RB Chris Henry as a high end RB2. Henry should see extensive action and possibly 20 touches or so in this game.

Weather: Indoor game.

LIONS (0-15) @ PACKERS (5-10)

The Packers gave up another lead late and lost to the Bears in OT while the Lions mailed it in and got thrashed by the Saints in Week 16.

Last week was one of the few weeks that Lions didn’t put up much of a fight and one has wonder how they will react on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. The Lions have not beaten the Packers in Green Bay since 1991. They already have the dubious distinction of being the first team to go 0-15 can 0-16 be much worse? We honestly don’t see these Cats having much fight in them this weekend regardless of pride and the desperation of the situation. They do have to play the game however so there are some Fantasy points to be had from the Lions. QB Dan Orlovsky will not be a source of many of them though. Don’t even consider starting him. RB Kevin Smith needs 116 rushing yards to reach 1,000 in his rookie season and faces a Packers defense that ranks 26th against the run. Consider Smith as a low end RB1 this weekend. WR Calvin Johnson had his best game of the season back in Week 2 against the Packers with 129 yards and 2 TD’s. That was in the friendly confines of Ford Field though. CJ needs 71 yards to reach 1,3000 for the season. You can’t sit him but you do need to temper your expectations of him in this game. After that, move along, there’s nothing to see here.

The Packers played hard in trying to beat the Bears and knock them out of playoff contention on MNF last week. Will they play with the same intensity and try to keep the Lions winless? We don’t see it as a huge motivating factor but it certainly could be. The Packers do have some individual marks they would like to set. QB Aaron Rodgers needs 270 yards to reach 4,000 in his first year as a starter. Rogers is a good start as a low end QB1 this weekend. Ryan Grant can reach 1,200 rushing yards with 103 on the ground in this one and we fully expect he will. Start him as a low end RB1 against the Lions last ranked run defense. WR Greg Jennings can reach 1,300 receiving yards with 108 here and should be started as low end WR1 against the Lions 26th ranked pass defense. WR Donald Driver needs 100 yards to get over 1,000 for the fifth straight season. Driver is dealing with a knee injury and has been limited in practice this week. If he starts, consider him as a low end WR2 this weekend. TE Donald Lee can match his career high, six-touchdown mark he set last season with one TD in this one. Lee can safely be started as a high end TE2 in this one. In short, start your Packers and expect them all to produce.

Weather: Partly sunny and cold at 28 degrees.

JAGUARS (5-10) @ RAVENS (10-5)

The Ravens ran all over the Cowboys while the Jaguars gave up 17 fourth quarter points and were beat by the Colts in Week 16.

The Ravens are playing for a playoff spot. If they win, they get in. A loss coupled with a Patriots loss would also get them a playoff berth. The Jaguars once promising season has been over for a while now. The Jaguars have been playing stout defense against the run but have allowed 25 TD passes on the season, which is third worst in the league. Look for the Ravens to stick with got them this far and continue to pound the ground with their power running backs. It’s hard to tell from week to week which one will shine but we would start LeRon McClain as a high end RB2 this weekend. Consider Willis McGahee as a low-end flex2 and bench RB Ray Rice who is dealing with a calf injury. QB Joe Flacco is another of many game managers at QB in the NFL this season. He does enough to help his NFL team to win but not enough to help his Fantasy team win. His last three games have been particularly erratic but in this must win situation, look for Flacco to post decent high-end QB2 numbers. You could certainly do worse at the QB position with guys other than Flacco.

WR Derrick Mason has been dealing with a shoulder injury for two month now and was in pain with every catch he made last week. This is one tough dude and we expect him to be on the field this Sunday. Mason needs 40 yards to reach 1,000 for the seventh time in eight years. Expect him to get a possible TD and start him as a mid range WR2. WR Mark Clayton has disappeared, again, over the past three weeks. With the Jaguars suspect against the pass though, he can be started here as a low end WR2. TE Todd Heap is the making tough catches when he has to but is far too inconsistent to start as anything more than a low end TE2.

The Jaguars will be playing out the string on the road and we wonder how much fight they will have against the physical Ravens defense. QB David Garrard has been a Fantasy stud over the last two weeks but things get tougher for him in this one. The Ravens are ranked third in pass defense so you should consider other options for your QB this weekend and treat Garrard as a low end QB2. RB Maurice Jones-Drew suffered a bruised knee in Week 16 but was back at practice on Friday and says he will play. Jones-Drew has been very productive over the past three weeks but, like all the Jaguars, he is tough in this one. If you have better options at the RB position you need to consider them and treat Jones-Drew as a mid range RB2. Since the suspension to WR Matt Jones, Dennis Northcutt has stepped up big time for the Jaguars and has 228 yards and 2 TD’s in his past two games. That being said, we can’t recommend anyone from the Jags receiving core in this one. If you are starting a Jag, do so with your expectations in check as we see the Ravens coming close to shutting them out.

Weather: Cloudy, chance of showers and 60 degrees.

SEAHAWKS (4-11) @ CARDINALS (8-7)

The Seahawks shocked the Jets while the Cardinals didn’t even show up and were crushed by the Patriots in Week 16.

The Cardinals are locked in to the 5th seed in the NFC while the Seahawks season has been over for quite some time now. In their past two games, both loses, the Cards have been outscored 69-24. This is something that has to be alarming to the coaching staff and we expect the Cardinals to finish out the season on a high note with a convincing home victory. Expect the Cardinals starters to play most of this game and put up good numbers. The Seahawks rank dead last in pass defense so QB Kurt Warner & Co. will use this as a tune up and momentum building game heading into the playoffs. Expect Warner to bounce back from his horrible performance last week and start him as a mid range QB1 this weekend. WR Larry Fitzgerald needs 109 yards and 1 TD to post new career highs in both categories. We fully expect that he will reach both of them and recommend him as a high end WR1 this weekend.

Be careful when considering WR Aquan Boldin as he did not play last weekend due to a shoulder injury. Boldin could be one of the few Cardinal starters that don’t see extensive playing in this game. Check the active list on Sunday and start him with caution. With Boldin limited expect a decent game out of WR Steve Breaston this weekend. Start him as a mid range WR2 and expect double-digit Fantasy points. With their pass defense being so bad teams haven’t had to run much against the Seahawks and that accounts for their 20th ranking in run defense. The Cardinals running game as been atrocious for weeks now and we wonder if the coaching staff will concentrate on trying to get it going this weekend. We think they will. RB Tim Hightower should see somewhere in the range of 25 touches and can be started as a mid range RB2. No one else in the Cards running game should be trusted in this game.

We don’t expect the Seahawks to mail it in this weekend but their home win against the Jets was the high point of their season and they simply don’t have the firepower to stay with the Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed a league high of 34 touchdowns through the air this season so that makes QB Seneca Wallace a bit of a sleeper pick here. If you don’t have any better options, start Wallace as a mid range QB2 and expect decent numbers out of him. Like the Seahawks, the Cardinals are much better against the run than they are against the pass. RB Maurice Morris has taken over as the lead back in Seattle but we don’t recommend him as anything more than a low end RB2 on the road this weekend. Both WR Deion Branch and Bobby Engram should be considered as WR3’s this weekend. Rookie TE John Carlson leads the Seahawks in receiving and has played solid with Wallace under center. Start Carlson as a mid range TE1 and expect his production to continue.

Weather: Sunny ad 60 degrees.

REDSKINS (8-7) @ 49ERS (6-9)

The Redskins squeaked past the Eagles while the 49ers rallied late, on the road, and beat the Rams in Week 16.

The Niners will be playing to help Coach Mike Singletary get the interim tag taken away and be their head coach next season. The Redskins make the cross-country trip and are playing for nothing. We won’t waste much time here, as there isn’t much to hang your hat on from either team in this game. Both teams are playing decent defense and horrible on offense. That trend will continue this weekend and there isn’t anyone in this game that we would recommend as a starter in your Fantasy roster. Do yourself a favor and just avoid this game all together.

Weather: Rain and 50 degrees.

DOLPHINS (10-5) @ JETS (9-6)

Te Dolphins won a shoot out against the Chiefs while the Jets were held to a field goal and lost to the Seahawks in Week 16.

The Dolphins control their own fate in this one. If they win, they are the AFC Champs. They can still get in with a loss but would need loses by the Patriots and Ravens to snag the final wild card spot. It’s very unlikely that both the Pats and Ravens will lose so the Dolphins know they have to win. This is one of the biggest games of the week and is filled with intrigue and various story lines. The biggest story line has to be QB Chad Pennington returned to face his former team after they dumped him in favor of Brett Favre. We think that athletes live for moments like this and Pennington should continue his solid play in this one. Start him as a high end QB2 if your other options are limited. The once vaunted Jets run defense has been dismal over the past couple of weeks and they gave up 116 yards to Maurice Morris last weekend.

The Dolphins RB by committee system is one of the least productive in the league. It serves them well in their games against NFL teams but is useless in Fantasy football. Consider both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, as nothing more than mid range RB2’s in this game. The Dolphins will want to attack the Jets through the air and test their 29th ranked pass defense. The problem here though is that their WR options are limited. If you have to start a Dolphin receiver your best option is rookie WR Davona Bess who’s averaging six catches a game over his last five. We expect Bess to get his second receiving TD of his career in this one and recommend him as a high WR2 in this game. The Dolphins have one of the most productive TE tandems in the league with David Martin and Anthony Fasano. Either of them can be started as a high end TE2 this weekend as they both have the potential to score against the Jets pass defense.

Since their huge win against the previously unbeaten Titans in week 12, the Jets have gone into the tank. They have one win in their last four and the win was a gift from the Bills on a fumble return for a TD. Brett Favre looks old (well, he is old) and he is dealing with a shoulder injury. In his last four games Favre has tossed just one TD and six INT’s. The Dolphins rank 25th against the pass but we see them generating enough pressure in this game to force Farve into making mistakes. They rank 5th in sacks with 40 and Favre should be a sitting duck here. Look elsewhere for your starting QB. The Dolphins enter this game with the leagues 10th ranked run defense but gave up 101 yards and 1 TD to RB Thomas Jones back in Week 1. With Favre struggling, we expect the Jets to lean on Jones heavily in this one and he should be started as a mid range RB1. With the recent play of Favre, we can’t recommend anyone in the Jets receiving core as anything more than WR3 option in this one. TE Dustin Keller should be considered as high end TE2 as we see the Dolphins bringing the blitz early and often this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

Since his breakout games in Week 11 and 12, RB Leon Washington has been relatively quiet. He is on the field in a lot of situations though so consider him as a decent flex2 in this one.

Weather: Showers and unseasonably warm at 55 degrees.

COWBOYS (9-6) @ EAGLES (8-6-1)

The Cowboys were embarrassed, at home, by the Ravens while the Eagles could only muster a field goal and lost to the Redskins in Week 16.

Surprisingly the Cowboys still have a grip on a wild card spot despite losing to the Ravens last weekend. They need to win to secure the six seed in the NFC. The Eagles need to win and losses by both the Bears and Bucs. The Eagles will know exactly where they stand heading into this game as both the Bucs and Bears play early games. If either of them win (the Bucs host the hapless Raiders) their season is done and they are playing the spoiler role. Either way, the Eagles and Cowboys hate each other so this should be a good game. The Eagles were on a roll heading into last weeks game and then managed just 275 yards on offense and scored three points. QB Donovan McNabb will need to rise up if the Eagles stand any chance to win this game but he’ll be on the run all day against DeMarcus Ware & Co. Ware needs three sacks to top Michael Strahan’s single season league record which stands at 22.5. If the Eagles are still playing with a chance to make the playoffs, we recommend McNabb as a low end QB1. If they don’t have a shot, we would bump him down to a mid range QB2. We expect the latter to be the case, so start McNabb with caution.

RB Brian Westbrook ripped out the hearts of his Fantasy owners with back-to-back clunkers over the past two weeks. How much Westbrook plays in this one will depend on what happens in the morning games. In their Week 2 match up Westbrook had 103 total yards and scored 3 TD’s. We don’t see those types of numbers out of him here in what should be a meaningless game for the Eagles. Consider Westbrook as mid range RB2 and hope he proves us wrong. We can’t recommend anyone from the Eagles receiving core in this game as anything more than a low end WR2/TE2.

The Cowboys will have to treat this game as a playoff game and are desperate for a win. Wins in December have been hard to come by for the Cowboys in recent years. This gut check time for a team that makes headlines for all the wrong reasons. Despite all the turmoil, we expect Dallas to suck it up, do a gut check and put a win on the board in this one. QB Tony Romo has never faired well in cold weather games but he gets a break here as the weather is expected to be decent in Philadelphia. The forecast calls for scattered showers but unseasonably warm at about 60 degrees. Start Romo as a low end QB1 and expect fantasy points in the high 20’s. The running back situation is still cloudy in Dallas but we expect that Tashard Choice will get carry the load again this weekend over Marion Barber.

The Eagles rank 6th in run defense but gave up 70 yards and a TD to a banged up Clinton Portis last week. Choice has run well against tough defenses in his last three weeks facing the Steelers, Giants and Ravens. He has also been active catching balls out of the backfield and we expect another decent game form him in this one. Start Choice as a low end RB1 and bench MBIII. WR Terrell Owens needs 51 yards to reach 1,000 on the season and, while that’s not important in the overall scheme, he will get there in this game. Start T.O. as a low end WR1 and expect close to 100 yards and a score. WR Roy Williams made headlines this week by pulling a T.O. and demanding more attention in the offense. Williams’s impact has been minimal since coming over the Cowboys from the Lions and that trend will continue this week. Treat Roy E. as a low WR2 at best. TE Jason Witten is listed as probable for the Cowboys with and ankle injury but is expected to play. The Eagles blitzing schemes make it hard for them to cover the TE position. If Witten is good to go, start him as a high end TE1 in this one.

Weather: Scattered showers but unseasonably warm at about 60 degrees.

BRONCOS (8-7) @ CHARGERS (7-8)

The Bills embarrassed the Broncos while the Chargers rolled over the Bucs in Week 16.

Wow! It doesn’t get much better than this to close out the regular season. The AFC West title is on the line, memories of the infamous Week 2 games are still fresh and these two teams absolutely hate each other. Throw in a clear, slightly chilly evening in San Diego and everything is set for will be one of the best games of the year. We hope the person operating the scoreboard gets a good rest Saturday night, as he will busy for this one. You know what you have to do here. Sit whoever is running the ball for the Broncos, (most likely Tatum Bell) and start anyone else from both teams. With the scenario being as simple as it is, two high-powered offenses against two suspect defenses, our only forecast here is a 45-35 Chargers win. Many Fantasy Championships could have their outcome decided in this game. We repeat, if you own ‘em, start ‘em, sit back and enjoy!

Weather: Clear and 60 degrees.

That’s it for the regular season Fantasy Freaks! We will continue to post blogs through the playoffs along with wrapping up the season that was in the coming weeks. In the meantime, Good Luck if you are playing for your league Championship this weekend and we hope your week is point prosperous and injury free!

Enjoy the games everyone!

StatsGuru