Welcome to our Week 15 Beasts and Busts. Our Week 14 NFL projections was a great week of NFL forecasting by StatsGuru. Let’s review them first.

RAIDERS 7 @ CHARGERS 34

Week 14 started with the Chargers rout of the Raiders. We expected the Raiders to put up some sort of a fight here but they basically lied down and let the Chargers have their way with them. RB LT2 was recommended as a must-start RB1 and had 91 rush yards and 1 TD. The Chargers passing offense did more damage than we expected as QB Philip Rivers and WR Vincent Jackson both had a huge day. TE Antonio Gates was a bust has he was held without a catch. As suggested, the Raiders struggles on offense continued in this one. TE Zach Miller, as predicted, was a good low-end TE1 with eight catches for 64 yards.

JAGUARS 10 @ BEARS 23

For the most part the Jaguars struggled on offense again this weekend as predicted. RB Maurice Jones-Drew was the lone bright spot with 102 total yards and 1 TD. RB Matt Forte had a decent day but came in below expectations with just 106 total yards. QB Kyle Orton and TE Greg Olsen both had a better game than we expected.

BROWNS 9 @ TITANS 28

As suggested, The Titans didn’t have any problems pounding the banged up Browns. We predicted that RB’s LenDale White and Chris Johnson would both have a huge game and that they would both produce double-digit Fantasy points. White had 101 total yards and 1 TD while Johnson had 166 total yards and 1 TD. QB Kerry Colins had the modest game we predicted with 155 pass yards with 2 TD’s offset by 2 INT’s. The Titans receiving core, as suggested, was bad across the board with just nine catches amongst them. The Titans DFST didn’t have the monster game we predicted but they did hold the Browns to just 178 total yards. Hopefully you followed our suggestion and sat any Browns player, as their top producer was RB Jason Wright who had just 41 yards of offense.

EAGLES 20 @ GIANTS 14

We have to admit; we weren’t really sure just how things were going to shake out in this game. The Eagles won but the Giants still clinched a playoff spot. The Giants were horrible in this one and produced the low end #2 numbers that we expected. Eagles QB Donovan McNabb produced the 15 points we predicted. RB Brian Westbrook continues to produce amazing numbers and had 203 yards of offense with 2 TD’s. We suggested the Eagles receiving core would be mediocre at best in this one and they were.

VIKINGS 20 @ LIONS 16

We expected a monster game from RB Adrian Peterson in this one. What we got was a mediocre 117 total yards and no touchdowns. At this crucial time of the Fantasy season, those are very disappointing numbers indeed. QB Gus Frerotte was, as suggested mediocre again and left the game with a back injury. That made WR Bernard Berrian a bust as well. The Lions put up a good fight but their lone producer was, once again, WR Calvin Johnson who had 84 yards and 1 TD. Stats Sleeper, RB Chester Taylor, had 53 total yards and 1 TD.

TEXANS 24 @ PACKERS 21

We expected lots of passing from the Packers in this game and QB Aaron Rodgers produced decent low-end QB1 numbers with 295 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT. WR’s Greg Jennings and Donald Driver had 74 and 75 receiving yards but were held out of the end zone. RB Ryan Grant played through his hand injury and had a big game with 104 yards and 1 TD. TE Donald Lee was, as suggested, a good start with 48 yards and 1 TD. The Texans offense got a boost with the return of QB Matt Schaub and we missed by not discussing his possible impact on this game. RB Steve Slaton was a good suggested start with 160 total yards. WR Andre Johnson had 55 yards and 1 TD. TE Owen Daniels had six catches for 65 yards. WR Kevin Walter led all Texans with 146 yards and 1 TD. With Grant starting Stats Sleeper, RB Brandon Jackson, was a bust.

FALCONS 25 @ SAINTS 29

As suggested, this game was shootout and produced the second most points of the week at 54. Saints QB Drew Brees produced as expected with 230 yards and 2 TD’s. RB Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush were both the good starts we recommended as they combined for 215 yards and 3 TD’s. The Saints WR core however was very mediocre in this one. The Falcons trio of QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White all produced at the high level we predicted. TE Justin Peelle was the bust we predicted with just one catch for nine yards. Stats Sleeper, WR Michael Jenkins, had five catches for 69 yards.

BENGALS 3 @ COLTS 35

Our order of preference in this one was QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne, RB Joseph Addai and TE Dallas Clark. Manning had 277 yards and 3 TD’s. Wayne and Addia were disappointing while Clark had 29 yards and 1 TD. RB Cedric Benson and the rest of the Bengals were all horrible as we suggested they would be.

DOLPHINS 16 @ BILLS 3

We suggested that you should avoid players in this game as we expected a very low scoring game. That was certainly the case as the two teams combined for 19 points and just 458 yards of offense. Hopefully you followed our advice and just stayed away from the players in this game all together.

PATRIOTS 24 @ SEAHAWKS 21

We saw this as a bounce back game for QB Matt Cassel and he had a decent start with 282 total yards and 1 TD. WR Randy Moss was a bust again this weekend despite the good match up. WR Wes Welker produced as suggested with 12 catches for 134 yards. RB Sammy Morris produced 36 yards and 1 TD while Kevin Faulk didn’t and was a bust. We said that you should not be starting anyone from Seattle at this point in the season. Logically, this should have been good advice. In the No Freakin’ Logic entity that is the NFL however, that turned out to be bad advice. QB Seneca Wallace and WR Deion Branch went off in this game. The Patriots have a ton of injuries on defense now and should be ripe for the picking down the stretch.

CHIEFS 24 @ BRONCOS 17

We advised you to get your Broncos started in this one and they all produced as expected. QB Jay Culter and WR Brandon Marshall both had the huge game we suggested. RB Peyton Hillis was on his way to a big game before leaving the game with a season ending hamstring injury. That makes him the sixth Denver RB to be lost for the season. We were right in warning you that WR Eddie Royal is hit or miss weekly and should not be trusted as anything more than a low-end WR2 in this one. TE Tony Scheffler had a decent day with five catches for 61 yards. For the Chiefs, RB Larry Johnson was a bust with just 36 total yards. QB Tyler Thigpen, WR Dwayne Bowes and TE Tony Gonzalez did however post decent numbers as suggested.

RAMS 10 @ CARDINALS 34

We expected a minimum of 20 Fantasy points each from QB Kurt Warner, and his twin towers, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald reached the level while Warner and Boldin did not in what had to be a disappointing day for their Fantasy owners.
We didn’t expect the Rams to put up much resistance in this game and they didn’t. RB Steven Jackson was the Rams top producer with 67 total yards and 1 TD. His two lost fumbles brought down his Fantasy value though. Stats Sleeper, RB Tim Hightower, had 32 yards and 1 TD.

COWBOYS 13 @ STEELERS 20

We warned that weather and tough defense would limit the values of everyone in game and that was certainly the case. QB Tony Romo produced the mediocre numbers we expected with 210 yards and 1 TD but tossed 3 INT’s. RB Marion Barber III didn’t even travel to Pittsburgh and RB Tashard Choice produced a surprising 166 total yards but was held out of the end zone. WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten both posted pedestrian numbers against the stout Steelers defense. The Steelers offensive stars all produced mediocre numbers as well. QB Ben Roethlisberger posted the mid-range QB2 numbers we predicted with 221 yards and 1 TD. The Steelers running back by committee situation was the bust we expected with just 51 rushing yards from three backs. The Steelers receiving core was also very mediocre lead by a game high 82 yards from Santonio Holmes. TE Heath Miller produced the high-end TE2 numbers we expected with 20 yards and 1 TD. Stats Sleeper, WR Roy Williams, was a bust again this weekend with just 2 catches for 16 yards. You have to wonder if Romo even knows this guy is on the field after Williams was wide open in the end zone on a play in the third quarter and Romo still didn’t throw him the ball.

REDSKINS 10 @ RAVENS 24

For the second week in a row we were spot on in suggesting that you should sit your Redskins. The Ravens punishing defense held them in check all game and they were busts across the board. As we suggested, QB Joe Flacco, RB LeRon McClain and WR Derrick Mason all posted good numbers in this game. We also suggested that WR Mark Clayton would come back to earth and he did with just two catches for 19 yards. TE Todd Heap was the mid-range TE2 we suggested with two catches for 54 yards.

BUCCANEERS 23 @ PANTHERS 38

This certainly wasn’t the low scoring, defensive battle that we expected going in. It did in fact end up being the highest scoring game of the weekend. We said RB DeAngelo Williams would be a good start and expected around 75 yards and 1 TD. He more than doubled that yardage with 186 yards and had 2 TD’s. His running mate, Jonathan Stewart was also impressive with 115 yards and 2 TD’s. As suggested the Panthers ran first and passed second. QB Jake Delhomme was mediocre with 173 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s. WR is Steve Smith produced better than we expected though with 117 yards and 1 TD. As for the Bucs, we were right and wrong in our forecast of them. Their RB’s were very mediocre as we suggested but QB Jeff Garcia and WR Antonio Bryant went off in this one. If you started either of them go get yourself a lottery ticket!

That’s a wrap of Week 14. It’s onwards and upwards as we head into Week 15 and what are the semi-finals for most Fantasy Football leagues.

SAINTS (7-6) @ BEARS (7-6)

The Saints traded blow for blow with the Falcons and came out on top while the Bears punished the Jaguars in Week 14.

Week 15 kicks off with a game that features two teams fighting for their playoff lives. These teams currently sit in 10th and 11th and loser will be out of the playoff chase. The Saints will need a big game out of QB Drew Brees if they hope to hope to win on the road. Last year around this time, in the same setting, Brees passed for 320 yards, 3TD’s and 2 INT’s. You can expect more of the same this week as the weather will be cold but there is no precipitation in the forecast. Despite allowing 13 rushing TD’s the Bears defense is holding teams to an average of 91.2 yards a game. Treat RB Pierre Thomas as a high-end RB2 in this one. RB Reggie Bush should be considered as a high-end flex2 player and should be active catching balls out in the flats. Which WR will step up for the Saints has become a guessing game on a weekly basis lately. The Bears are not good against the pass so we suggest that you start WR Marques Colston as a low-end WR1 and Lance Moore as a high-end WR2. The Saints TE position continues to be disappointing. That being said TE Jeremy Shockey is starting to get more looks than Billy Miller and can be safely used as a high-end TE2 this weekend.

The Bears will want to use a balanced attack of rushing and passing against a suspect but improving Saints defense. QB Kyle Orton has matched four TD’s with 4 INT’s in his last two games but appears to be over his ankle injury. With limited receiving weapons though, consider Orton as a high-end QB2 at best this weekend. RB Matt Forte continues to rack up the yards and should be started as a high-end RB1 in this one. WR Devin Hester should be considered as a low-end WR2 and no other Chicago WR should be trusted. Expect TE Greg Olson to produce decent high-end TE2 numbers for the Bears in this one.

Weather: Mostly clear and 31 degrees.

BUCCANEERS (9-4) @ FALCONS (8-5)

The Bucs were run over by the Panthers while the Falcons lost a close one to the Saints.

With both teams coming off a loss it’s time to get back to work in another must win game for both these teams. The Bucs have the upper hand in the playoff race over the Falcons as they beat them back in Week 2 in Tampa. The Bucs started Week 14 as the #9 overall defense against the run but enter Week 15 ranked 18th after the Panthers ran wild on them. The Falcons will look to take a page from the Panthers playbook and run at the Bucs who will be tired in their second straight game on the road and coming off a short week. Before the MNF game last week, starting RB Michael Turner looked to be a risky start here. After the MNF game though Fantasy owners should feel somewhat better about the situation. Start Turner with confidence as a RB1 and expect 20 or so Fantasy points from him. The Falcons will still need to have a balanced attack here but we have a hard time recommending QB Matt Ryan in this pressure packed game. If you have a better option at QB you should consider your options. With Ryan struggling in this game we expect a drop in production from WR Roddy White and recommend him as a high-end WR2 against the Bucs.

The Bucs will try to regroup after their embarrassing MNF loss and should be an angry and ornery bunch. The problem with the Bucs is that they have a mediocre offense at best. QB Jeff Garcia enjoyed his best Fantasy week of the year against the Panthers but the Falcons have playmakers on pass defense. Don’t expect a repeat of the Week 14 numbers from Garcia and view him as a high-end QB2 in this one. The Bucs are moving closer to a RB by committee system with Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams and that makes them both nothing more than RB2’s in this match up. WR Antonio went off for a career game on MNF but continues to be hit or miss. Keep your expectations in check for him this weekend as we expect him to drop back to single digits in this one. No one in this game can be trusted as your starting TE.

Weather: Indoor game.

REDSKINS (7-6) @ BENGALS (1-11-1)

The Colts pounded the Bengals while the Ravens smothered the Redskins.

The Redskins still have slim playoff hopes while the Bengals look like a team wishing the season was over. A loss here though and the Redskins are done and with the way they are playing, they seem to be done anyway. The Redskins are a team in turmoil after RB Clinton Portis publicly called out head Coach Jim Zorn on national radio early in the week. There has not been any word on whether there will be any ramifications coming from his comments but Fantasy owners certainly have to hope not as the Bengals have a horrible run defense. That being said, the Redskins offensive line took a big hit against the Ravens. Pro Bowl left tackle Chris Samuels is now out for the season as is backup center Justin Geisinger. Starting right tackle Jon Jansen is dealing with injuries as well. We are going to assume that Portis plays a full game and that makes him a must-start RB1 despite everything swirling around in DC. The rest of the Redskins can’t be given the same rating though.

The Bengals don’t have much of a pass rush but the injuries to the Skins O-Line will make it easier for them to get to QB Jason Campbell. We expect that Washington will grind it out on the ground here and Campbell should be reserved despite the cupcake match-up. WR Santana Moss was once considered a stud way back in week 8. Since then he has failed to reach double-digit Fantasy points or had a touchdown in five straight games. In those games he has topped 55 receiving yards just once and that was against the lowly Seahawks where he managed just 72 yards. The Bengals are using second and third string defensive backs so you may be tempted to start Moss. We suggest that you temper your expectations though. Despite recent down weeks, TE Chris Cooley will be a bright spot for the Redskins this weekend and should be started as a low-end TE1 in all formats. The Bengals have given up a TD pass to a TE in each of the past four weeks so Cooley should be next.

The Bengals appear to be playing out the string and have scored just two field goals in their past two games. Trusting any Bengal this weekend is like playing with fire. You will get burned!

Weather: Mostly sunny and 49 degrees.

TITANS (12-1) @ TEXANS (6-7)

The Titans bounced back and destroyed the Browns while the Texans won on the road in Green Bay in Week 14.

The Titans have clinched the AFC South and a first round bye in the playoffs while the Texans have been eliminated from the playoffs despite having won their past three games. Games like this, where one team is trying to just stay healthy while the other is trying to build momentum for next year, are very difficult to forecast. With one more win the Titans can lock up the overall number one seed in the AFC and you know that is something that will motivate them. QB Kerry Collins will be asked to direct a balance attack of run and pass against the Texans but won’t be asked to pass much here. Look for other options for your starting QB as the Texans play good pass defense and rank 18th overall in the category. On the other side of the coin, the Texans run defense has been suspect all season and given up 17 rushing TD’s and ranks 24th overall. RB’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White have been playing lights out the past two weeks and will get a heavy workload again this weekend. Start them both has high-end RB2’s this weekend and expect mid-range double-digit fantasy points from both of them. Since his monster Week 11, WR Justin Gage has dropped back to nothing more than a low-end WR2 in Fantasy. Start him if you must but temper your expectations, as there are definitely better options out there at the WR position. TE Bo Scaife looked as though he had arrived as a Fantasy option after his Week 10 performance but has slipped back again in the Titans run first offense. Consider him as a low-end TE2 in this match up.

The Texans have been playing inspired football over the past three weeks but are in tough against the Titans tough defense here. QB Matt Schaub had a career high 414 yards in his return from injury last week against the Packers but now faces the Titans #3 ranked pass defense. This is not a good spot for Schaub and a 1:3 TD to INT ratio here will sink your season if you start him. RB Steve Slaton got his first career start in Week 3 against the Titans and posted 124 total yards and 1 TD in that game. A similar performance here would not be a surprise and Slaton should be started as a low-end RB1 in this game. WR Andre Johnson sees double coverage on a weekly basis but still manages to put up decent numbers game in and game out. This guy is a beast who could beat triple coverage. Johnson should be started as a WR1 despite the tough match up against the Titans.

The beneficiary of the double teams Johnson sees has been WR Kevin Walter but his stat trend is very alarming. From Week 4 on, Walter has produced 14 or more Fantasy points on even numbered weeks and seven or less Fantasy points on odd numbered weeks. Get this; from Week 4 on, in five even numbered weeks Walter has 87 Fantasy points. On odd number weeks, in the same period, he has just 19 Fantasy points. A quick look at the calendar shows that this is an odd numbered week and you know what you should do. TE Owen Daniels is certainly happy Schaub is back under center has his best games have come with him at the helm. Daniels has posted 66 points in nine games with Schaub at QB and just 10 points in four games without him. With the Titans bringing constant pressure look for Daniels to act as a safety valve for Schaub and produce decent TE1 type numbers in this one.

Weather: Scattered cloud, chance of showers and 72 degrees.

PACKERS (5-8) @ JAGUARS (4-9)

The Texans at home upset the Packers while the Bears in Week 14 buried the Jaguars.

Both of these teams were considered to be playoff teams when the season started but they have both been a major disappointment. The Jaguars have lost four straight games while the Packers are on a three game losing skid. They are now both out of playoff contention and searching for answers. The Packers don’t have to look any further than their defense to figure out what went wrong as they have given up 110 points and 1,263 total yards in their past three games. That spells must start status for RB Maurice Jones-Drew in this game. Jones-Drew has come on as a dual threat the past few weeks and will see even more touches as RB Fred Taylor is out for the year and the suspension to WR Matt Jones has been upheld and he is done for the season as well. After that, you should stay away from everyone else from the Jaguars.

The Packers have produced on offense during their recent skid and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue against the Jaguars who have given up 21 TD passes. QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Greg Jennings are both good starts as #1 at their position. The Jaguars have played solid run defense all season so expect modest numbers out of RB Ryan Grant and start him as mid-range RB2 in this one. TE Donald Lee has had back-to-back good games and should be considered as a low-end TE1 against the Jags.

Stats Sleeper: With the Packers expected to pass more than run this is a good spot to start Donald Driver as a high-end WR2.

Weather: Mostly sunny and 65 degrees.

49ERS (5-8) @ DOLPHINS (8-5)

The Dolphins went to Canada and beat the Bills while the 49ers shocked the Jets in Week 14.

The Dolphins control their own destiny. If they win out they win the AFC East and would complete what has been an amazing turn around season for them. The Niners have been playing inspired football under new Coach Mike Singletary. Don’t expect much scoring here as both teams have been playing very good defense down the stretch. Starting anyone in this game as anything more then low-end #2 would be a very risky move with Fantasy playoffs on the line. Do yourself a favor and just sit everyone involved in this game. If you were forced to start anyone here we would start RB Ronnie Brown as a high-end RB2 in this one. WR Devon Bess has posted decent games and now the go to receiver in Miami. Consider him as a low-end WR2 if you are desperate at the position. RB Frank Gore is questionable for the 49ers and Fantasy owners should expect to be without him in Week 15. QB Shaun Hill has been impressive of late but is a risky start against Joey Porter and Co. as the 49ers rank 31st in pass protection and that will have Hill running for his life all game. As mentioned, try to avoid this game all together.

Weather: Mostly sunny and 74 degrees.

StatsGuru