Vegas Fantasy Football Picks

Week 13 NFL Projections

November 26th, 2008 · No Comments

Welcome to the Week 13 Beasts and Busts. Week 12 saw the re-emergence of some old Fantasy Studs and record point scoring across the league. We had a good weekend with our forecasts so let’s review our Week 12 NFL projections and then get right to Week 13.

BENGALS 10 @ STEELERS 27

We suggested that the Steelers would roll the Bengals in this one and, despite the misleading score, they did. The Bengals were never in this game after their early touchdown. We predicted a good game from RB Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore but Parker left the game early as he aggravated his knee injury and was a bust. Moore posted 97 total yards. The Steelers O-Line didn’t allow a sack of QB Big Ben for just the second time this season and that lead to a nice game out him. WR Hines Ward was held to one catch for 37 yards. TE Heath Miller ended up starting and caught four passes for 44 yards and 1 TD. That made TE Matt Spaeth a bust. As suggested, the Bengals were a bust across the board as they managed just 208 total yards of offense. Stats Sleeper, WR Santonio Holmes, had it going early with five catches for 84 yards but left the game after having his bell rung in the third quarter.

TEXANS 16 @ BROWNS 6

We expected modest numbers out of QB Brady Quinn and he had a horrible game with just 94 pass yards and 2 INT before being benched. RB Jamal Lewis didn’t have the game we expected with just 68 total yards. As suggested, the Browns receiving core all had a mediocre start in this one. Texans RB Steve Slaton posted 73 rushing yards. QB Sage Rosenfels passed for 275 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. WR Andre Johnson had ten catches for 116 yards while TE Owen Daniels had the mediocre day we suggested,

BUCCANEERS 38 @ LIONS 20

We told you this was a good spot for QB Jeff Garcia and it was as he passed for 165 yards and 2 TD. WR Antonio Bryant was quiet however with four catches for 48 yards. We suggested 100 total yards and at least one score from RB Warrick Dunn and he ended up with 127 total yards and 1 TD. After going up 17-0 in the first quarter this has to be the Lions most disappointing loss of the season. As suggested, WR Calvin Johnson was the only one you should have trusted and he had three catches for 66 yards and 1 TD. Stats Sleeper, TE Jerramy Stevens was good here with 29 yards and 1 TD.

BEARS 27 @ RAMS 3

We suggested a huge game from RB Matt Forte in this one and he responded with 146 total yards and 2 TD. We told you QB Kyle Orton and the Bears receiving core would struggle despite the cupcake matchup. Orton passed for just 139 yards and 1 TD and WR Devin Hester was the top receiver with five catches for 57 yards. Ugly! We thought Rams QB Marc Bulger could be a sneaky start and post good numbers in this one. He was a bust however after suffering a concussion and left the game early. WR Torry Holt had four catches for 84 yards while WR Donnie Avery was a bust with just one catch for 14 yards. The Rams running backs were horrible as suggested and gained just 18 yards rushing yards and had 58 total yards between them.

EAGLES 7 @ RAVENS 36

We expect that this will be smash-mouth football at its brutal best and the Ravens did all the smashing. QB Joe Flacco had a better than expected game with 183 yards and 2 TD. The Ravens RB committee featured RB LeRon McClain this weekend and he posted 88 yards with 1 TD. If you trusted your Fantasy weekend to McClain, good for you! WR Derrick Mason Mason and TE Todd Heap were both busts as we predicted. We told you to bench all your Eagles in this one and we hope you followed our advice. We expected the Ravens defense to be good in this one and they held the Eagles to seven points and just 203 total yards. No one from the Eagles offense managed to crack double digit Fantasy points.

JETS 34 @ TITANS 13

We suggested the Jets would have to commit to the run to win this game and they did. RB Thomas Jones had a good game with 117 total yards and 1 TD. RB Leon Washington was equally as good with 84 total yards on offense and 3 TD’s including a kick return for a TD. QB Brett Favre, as suggested, was a decent QB2 in this one with 224 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. We didn’t predict it but WR Laveranues Coles was very effective with seven catches for 88 yards and 1 TD. Rookie TE Dustin Keller caught six passes for 42 yards. As expected QB Kerry Collins had his third serviceable game in a row passing for 243 yards and 1 TD. WR Justin Gage cooled off as expected with just one catch for 37 yards. We told you to temper your expectations of RB’s LenDale White and Chris Johnson and they struggled for the third week in a row. Stats Sleeper, TE Bo Scaife, had just three catches for 40 yards.

VIKINGS 30 @ JAGUARS 12

This was a tough game for us to forecast. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, as expected, didn’t have a huge game but posted a decent 80 yards rushing and 1 TD. QB Gus Frerotte and WR Bernard Berrian were both a bust in this one. We expected a bounce back game from TE Visanthe Shiancoe and he had 3 catches for 60 yards. We expected modest numbers from QB David Garrard and he had 317 yards with 1 TD but threw 2 INT. We suggested that you should ignore the Jags receiving core all together and they were horrible as expected. RB Maurice Jones-Drew was a decent high-end RB2 this weekend with 117 total yards and an amazing 9 receptions. TE Marcedes Lewis didn’t bounce back as we expected and was held to four catches for 41 yards. Stats Sleeper, WR Mike Walker was a total bust.

PATRIOTS 48 @ DOLPHINS 28

From a Patriots perspective, our call here was nearly flawless. QB Matt Cassel and WR’s Randy Moss and Wes Welker all had a huge game against the Dolphins. We suggested the Patriots running game would be mediocre here and, other than RB Kevin Faulk, it was. We weren’t as good with our call on the Dolphins. QB Chad Pennington had a huge game with 341 yards 3 TD and 1 INT. Penningtons play made his receivers better than we suggested they would be. As suggested, the Patriots were stiff against the run again this weekend. They held the Dolphins running backs in check allowing just 58 rushing yards.

BILLS 54 @ CHIEFS 31

The Chiefs faced a team that was desperate for a win for the fifth week in a row and, for the fifth week in a row, the desperate team won again. We expected a modest game from QB Trent Edwards but he exceeded our expectations with 273 yards and 4 total TD’s. RB Marshawn Lynch didn’t exactly have a field day against the Chiefs but did post 104 total yards and 1 TD. The Bills slumping receiving core was mediocre again this weekend. WR Lee Evans did have five catches for 110 yards but was held without a score. The Chiefs continue to rack up the Fantasy points and, as suggested, they had another big game here. QB Tyler Thigpen, WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez all posted big numbers. RB Larry Johnson posted the decent RB2 numbers we suggested with 105 total yards. Stats Sleeper, Bills RB Fred Jackson, posted modest numbers with 76 total yards.

49ERS 22 @ COWBOYS 35

As suggested the Cowboys kept it rolling this weekend and pounded the 49ers. QB Tony Romo and WR Terrell Owens both had the big day we expected. RB Marion Barber III was decent with 109 total yards but TE Jason Witten is still struggling with injured ribs and had a disappointing game with just one catch for 11 yards. We were wrong in suggesting a decent game for RB Frank Gore as he posted just 35 total yards. QB Shawn Hill and WR Issac Bruce both posted better numbers than anyone could have expected. Stats Sleeper, WR Roy Williams, continues to be a bust for the Cowboys has he had just 3 catches for 36 yards.

RAIDERS 31 @ BRONCOS 10

We could not have been any more wrong than we were on this one. Time to take a mulligan, apologize and move on.

PANTHERS 28 @ FALCONS 45

The Falcons bounced back in a huge way this weekend. RB Michael Turner exceeded our decent low-end RB1 forecast with 117 yards and four touchdowns. We expected a modest game from Falcons QB Matt Ryan and his receiving core here and that was certainly the case. We recommended RB’s James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams as low-end RB1’s here but Williams was the only one of the two to produce. In a lopsided loss, QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith both had a better game than we expected.

GIANTS 37 @ CARDINALS 29

We suggested the Cardinals were in tough here and, while they lost the game, they still posted decent fantasy numbers. We suggested that you needed to start QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquan Boldin and WR Larry Fitzgerald in this one but that you needed to temper your expectations. Warner and Boldin had a decent game while Fitzgerald was just average. As suggested RB Derrick Ward picked up the slack with RB Brandon Jacobs out for this game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw was a bust with very limited touches. We suggested QB Eli Manning would be expected to do more if Jacobs couldn’t go and he exceeded our QB2 expectations. WR Plaxico Burress started but left the game early after aggravating his hamstring injury. TE Kevin Boss got back in the end zone this weekend as we suggested. Stats Sleeper, WR Steve Smith had a modest four catch and 45 yard day.

REDSKINS 23 @ SEAHAWKS 20

We didn’t expect huge numbers from anyone in this game and that was certainly the case. We did say that if RB Clinton Portis was healthy enough to start that you should get him in your lineup and he responded with 159 total yards. QB Mark Campbell and WR Santana Moss both posted the high-end #2 numbers we suggested. TE Chris Cooley wasn’t the high-end TE1 we expected with 5 catches for 54 yards. The Seahawks hung tough at home but posted the mediocre numbers we expected. The lone exception was RB Maurice Morris who got extended playing time after RB Julius Jones left the game early with a calf injury.

COLTS 23 @ CHARGERS 20

This certainly wasn’t the shootout that we anticipated as the teams combined for just 43 points. That being said, there were still 735 yards of total offense and, for the most part, the stars in this game posted decent fantasy numbers.

PACKERS 29 @ SAINTS 51

We expected that this would be a very high scoring and extremely entertaining MNF game and it certainly lived up to the billing. We told you to start all your Saints and we hope you did. QB Drew Brees and WR Lance Moore both had monster games and WR Marques Colston was a decent start as well. We expected more from RB Deuce McAllister and even though he did score and set the Saints new TD record his knee injury held him back. With a suspension looming and his injury problem, Deuce could be done for the season. RB Pierre Thomas was huge as the Saints leading running back. We suggested that QB Aaron Rodgers would be good in this one and he was despite throwing 3 INT. We were perfect in our prediction of WR Greg Jennings as he totaled 101 yards and 1 TD. Even with the nice matchup against a leaking Saints D we cautioned against starting RB Ryan Grant and he was mediocre as predicted.

Most Fantasy playoffs started in Week 12 and we hope our recommendations were helpful in your roster decision making process. Let’s keep it rolling as we move to Week 13 and a big Thanksgiving weekend. There are three games on Thursday that will produce some big fantasy numbers so let’s get at it.

TITANS (10-1) @ LIONS (0-11)

The Titans saw their perfect season end and were crushed by the Jets while the Lions were brutal, yet again, and lost to the Bucs in Week 12.

The Titans were out of sorts against a very aggressive Jets teams and dropped passes all day leading to their first loss of the year. They should be an angry group and will look to crash the Lions annual “Super Bowl” game. The Lions can’t stop anyone, in any facet of the game, so we see the Titans bouncing back in a big way in this one. Expect the Titans to get back to pounding the ball on ground and for big numbers out of RB’s LenDale White and Chris Johnson. They have both struggled for three weeks straight but will feast on the Lions. We suggest Johnson over White but both of them will post decent numbers. QB Kerry Collins will be handing the ball off a lot and we expect modest numbers from him and his receiving core. TE Bo Scaife however should be considered as TE1 in this one.

The Lions certainly don’t have a lot to be thankful for as their “perfect” season continues. After going 6-1 from 1994 to 2000 the Lions have been 1-6 since then on Thanksgiving day. Make that 1-7 and 0-12 on the season after they get run over by the Titans. We keep repeating ourselves but sit every Lion player other than WR Calvin Johnson.

Weather: Indoor game.

SEAHAWKS (2-9) @ COWBOYS (7-4)

The Cowboys crushed the 49ers while the Seahawks hung in but lost to the Redskins in Week 12.

The Cowboys are getting their swagger back and look to continue their push to a wild card berth in the playoffs. This game will be the second blowout of the day as there’s no way the Seahawks will compete with the Cowboys. With a very tough schedule ahead of them this is a must-win game for Dallas. The Seahawks defense ranks 22nd against the run and 31st against the pass. Start QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber III and WR Terrell Owens and enjoy the bountiful harvest. TE Jason Witten has not been a reliable option even with the return of Romo as injuries are taking their toll on the toughest player in the NFL. With a blowout on tap and much tougher games down the road we expect Witten will be used sparingly in this one. WR Roy Williams has been a bust since arriving Dallas and is overdue for a bust out game. Expect decent WR2 numbers out of Williams.

The Seahawks have been competitive the past few weeks but on the road against a desperate Cowboys team is not a good spot for them. Dallas has gotten their act together on both sides of the ball the past couple of weeks and the results have been impressive. If you are desperate at the RB position we suggest taking a flier on Maurice Morris who will start for the Seahawks and is their most prolific Fantasy option. With minimal numbers being posted by TE’s throughout the league TE John Carlson is also worth a flier in this one as the Cowboys will bring the heat on QB Matt Hasselbeck who should not be started in any format.

Stats Sleeper

If the Cowboys limit Witten to help him get healthy for the stretch run, look for a big day out TE Martellus Bennett.

Weather: Mostly cloudy and 66 degrees.

CARDINALS (7-4) @ EAGLES (5-5-1)

The Cardinals lost to the Giants while the Eagles were humiliated by the Ravens in Week 12.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Eagles who find themselves behind seven teams in the wildcard chase. Their season is basically over and they are a team in turmoil. QB Donavan McNabb was benched for the second half of the Ravens game and seems disinterested and lifeless. RB Brian Westbrook is playing through injury and has been joined on the injury list by Correll Buckhalter who has a strained knee ligament. There is good news however as the Cardinals have to make the west to east trip, on a short week and they have given up 22 touchdowns passes on the season. Without much of a running game this is actually a good spot for McNabb and we rank him has a low-end QB1 on Thursday night. We can’t, because of the injury situation, recommend starting anyone from the Eagles backfield in this one. Someone will have to step up in the Eagles receiving core and there will be a lot of chances for them to do so here. Treat both Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson as a high-end WR2 this week. If you are desperate at TE consider L.J. Smith as mid-range TE2 but temper your expectations.

The Cardinals face another tough task this week as they are coming off a physical game against the Giants, they are playing on a very short week and they are traveling to a cold and hostile venue. The Eagles pressure pass rush defense is still very potent and they lead the league with 39 sacks. QB Kurt Warner has yet to have a clunker game this season but we think it comes in this one. Start him if you must but BEWARE! The Eagles run defense is ranked 11th and have given up just six rushing touchdowns on the season. We suggest looking past the Cardinals running backs in this one. You can’t sit WR Anquan Boldin or WR Larry Fitzgerald but, as with Warner, BEWARE! As bad as the eagles have been, we don’t see the Cardinals winning this game. They will have the NFC West locked up after the Niners get pounded by the Jets and will look to escape Philly with little more than good health. BEWARE!!!!

Weather: Partly cloudy and 43 degrees.

SAINTS (6-5) @ BUCCANEERS (8-3)

The Bucs pounding the hapless Lions while the Saints throttled the Packers in Week 12.

This is a huge NFC South battle with serious playoff implications. A win by the Saints would move them into the thick of the playoff race while a loss would doom their season. Tampa is one of the toughest teams to play against on their home field and QB Drew Brees and Co. will have their hands full against the Bucs swarming defense. Brees in on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season passing yard record and will need to be sharp if the Saints have any hope for a win. Some were doom and gloom for the Saints offense against a tough Packers defense on Monday night and then the Saints shredded them. The Bucs rank 2nd against the pass and 12th against the run and have allowed just one rushing TD. That is amazing stat. On MNF Brees completed passes to seven different receivers and we expect he will spread the wealth in this one as well. Despite the tough matchup expect a decent though not spectacular game from Brees. WR’s Lance Moore and WR Marques Colston should both be considered as high-end WR2’s in this one with Colston being the better of the two this week. RB Pierre Thomas shined on MNF but temper your expectations of him here as RB Reggie Bush is expected back and the Bucs just don’t allow rushing touchdowns. If Bush is back for this one he is a quality, low end #1 at the flex position. The Saints are using a TE by committee system and neither Jeremy Shockey or Bill Miller can be trusted as a TE1.

The Bucs scored 38 points against the Lions on Sunday but they managed just 255 total yards of offense. The Saints have been good at stopping the run but have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. QB Jeff Garcia will be asked to air it out in this one and makes a decent QB2 here. RB Warrick Dunn had his way with the Lions as the Bucs featured back but will lose touches to Cadillac Williams this week and should be viewed as a mid-range RB2 in this one. The Bucs receiving core is a bunch of no-names and it’s impossible to figure out who will lead this squad from week to week. WR Antonio Bryant has had two quiet weeks but we suggest he will this mediocre group against the Saints. At best, consider him a mid-range WR2. TE Jerramy Stevens has been decent foe two weeks in a row filling in for injured TE Alex Smith. Smith could back this week so check the injury report before starting either one of them. Consider whoever starts at TE for the Bucs as a high-end TE2 here.

Weather: Scattered showers and 75 degrees.

GIANTS (10-1) @ REDSKINS (7-4)

The Giants held on to beat the Cardinals while the Redskins struggled but beat the Seahawks in Week 12.

OK OK…..the Giants are the class of the NFL and we apologize for our pre-season doom and gloom forecast. There……we said it! This is a rematch of the season kickoff game that was won easily by the Giants. We expect a similar result here. By the time this game is played, the Cowboys will have already pounded the Seahawks and that will bring added to pressure to the Redskins. We don’t think they’ll be able to cope with the pressure as they’ve been anything but impressive over the past six weeks. QB Jason Campbell has been a serviceable start in each of his games this season but expecting a big game from him in this one would be a pipe dream. Look elsewhere if you have better options as the Giants will bring a heavy pass rush and add to their 32 sack and 15 INT totals. RB Clinton Portis has proved to be one tough back as he has been playing through injury for the past four weeks. Now he faces the Giants 6th ranked pass defense that is giving up an average of 84 rush yards a game and has yielded just six rushing touchdowns. You can’t sit Portis but expecting anything more than 12 or so Fantasy points would be stretch. The Redskins have gotten very little out of their wide receivers in recent weeks and that trend will continue against the Giants. WR Santana Moss can’t be trusted as anything more then a mid-range WR2 in this one. The rest of this group should not be started in any format. TE Chris Cooley will be a low-end TE1 but with the Redskins passing game in flux, you need to temper your expectations.

The Giants were without RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Plaxico Burress against the Cardinals last week and still racked up 37 points and 321 yards of total offense. With Jacobs sidelined QB Eli Manning attempted 33 passes and had one of his best games of the year. The Redskins rank 4th against the pass so consider Manning as a mid-range QB2 as the Giants will get back to more running than passing here. The status of Jacobs is still up in the air at the time of writing this so you need to monitor his progress and check the pre-game active lists before starting him. We expect he will start but we also expected he would start last week and was then pre-game scratch. The Redskins are stingy against the run and the committee system the Giants use make all the Giants RB’s nothing more than high RB2’s this weekend. Burress will also be a game decision for the Giants and with their receiving core very crowded, we suggest you look elsewhere for your starting WR this weekend. TE Kevin Boos continues to mature into a top flight TE and has caught a TD in four of his past five games. Start him with confidence as a low-end TE1 against the Redskins.

Stats Sleeper

If Burress can’t go in this game consider WR Domenik Hixon as a decent starter in the flex position. Hixon is a dual threat receiving and returning kicks.

Weather: Mostly cloudy, possible showers and 48 degrees.

49ERS (3-8) @ BILLS (6-5)

The 49ers were crushed by the Cowboys while the Bills rolled over the Chiefs in Week 12.

It doesn’t get much uglier than this. The Bills put in their first complete game in six weeks while dismantling the Chiefs but don’t get too excited about them. This will be a nice spot for them again this weekend though as the 49ers have to make the dreaded west to east trip and play in the early time slot. QB Trent Edwards had his best game of the season and maybe his career last week. He now faces the 49ers who rank 29th against the pass and have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. Start Edwards as a low-end QB1 and take the 20 or so Fantasy points. RB Marshawn Lynch had another good game last week as the Bills have finally figured out that he needs the ball if they are going to enjoy any success at all. The Niners have been decent against the run but you need Lynch in your line-up as a low-end RB1 in this one. WR Lee Evans had a bounce back game of sorts last weekend though his 11 (standard scoring) Fantasy points had to be disappointing considering the Bill put 54 points on the board. Start Evans with confidence as a low-end WR1 and expect better numbers from him this weekend. Don’t trust TE Robert Royal on your Fantasy roster this weekend or any weekend for that matter.

This is a very tough spot for the 49ers as they are a battered and bruised bunch and are facing a desperate Bills team on the road. The Bills rank 20th against the run and have surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns. RB Frank Gore had his worst game as a pro against the Cowboys last week and we expect a bounce back game of sorts from him this weekend. The Bills are hurting at key positions on defense and Gore will surely be the focal point of the Niners offense. Start Gore as a low-end RB1 and expect decent numbers from him in this one. The Bills are very mediocre against the pass and QB Shaun Hill has been impressive in his last two starts. If you are hurting at the QB position consider plucking Hill from the waiver wire if he is still out there but temper your expectations of him this weekend. Recommending anyone from the Niners receiving core is risky proposition but if you have to start any of them we suggest you go with WR Isacc Bruce. The cagy veteran finally has a QB to get him the ball. That being said, temper your expectations here as we don’t see Bruce repeating his Week 12 performance.

Weather: Light snow and 41 degrees.

COLTS (7-4) @ BROWNS (4-7)

The surging Colts won on the final play against the Chargers while the Browns were horrible in losing to the Texans in Week 12.

The Colts have rattled off four impressive wins in a row and look to keep their playoff push rolling against the lowly Browns. We would love the stars from the Colts if this game was being played in Lucas Oil Stadium but still expect decent game out of them in the chilly conditions in Cleveland. QB Peyton Manning has been hot of late with nine touchdowns and just 1 INT in his past four games. Start Manning with confidence in this one as the Browns secondary has been torched in recent weeks. The Browns rank 28th against the rush and RB Joseph Addai has turned the corner and is starting to produce as a low-end RB1. Start Addai in this one and expect solid double digit fantasy points. Manning uses all his weapons at wide receiver but WR Reggie Wayne is still your best option from this group. He had a down week last week but we expect much better numbers here. TE Dallas Clark continues to be a must-start TE in all formats.

The Browns offense is in turmoil after QB Brady Quinn was benched last week in favor of Derek Anderson. QB Brady Quinn has been placed on injured reserve with a broken finger on his throwing hand. RB Jamal Lewis appears to have a lost a step as the season wears on and has had back to back horrible games. The Colts have been better against the run in recent weeks and even though they still rank 25th we can’t recommend Lewis here. In fact, just avoid the Browns all together in this one.

Weather: Light snow and 34 degrees.

RAVENS (7-4) @ BENGALS (1-9-1)

The Ravens destroyed the Eagles while the Bengals were thrashed by the Steelers in Week 12.

The Ravens continue to be one of the best teams that no one is talking about. Once considered a team with great defense and no offense, the Ravens have now scored 170 points in their past six games. Take away the clunker against the Giants in Week 11 and they have been one of the best teams in the league over the past six weeks. It’s no coincidence that the Ravens resurgence has been coupled with the play that they are getting out QB Joe Flacco. This rookie is no ordinary Joe and his 21 or more Fantasy points in five of his last six games backs that up. If your regular starting QB has a tough matchup this weekend consider starting Flacco who will produce high-end QB2 numbers. The Ravens running back situation is still impossible to figure out. One week it’s Willis McGahee, the next it’s Ray Rice and then last week it was Le’Ron McClain. If you can figure out which one to start you are brilliant. We suggest that it will be back to Ray Rice this weekend against the weak Bengals run defense but admit that it’s more of an educated guess than a fact. Keep your expectations in check but start WR Derrick Mason who will rebound after two subpar performances.

Do not, under ANY circumstances, start any Bengals this weekend as we are going to call for a Ravens shutout against the Bungles.

Weather: Mostly cloudy and 40 degrees.

PANTHERS (8-3) @ PACKERS (5-6)

The Panthers were run over by the Falcons while the Packers were passed over by the Saints in Week 12.

The Panthers and Packers limp into this game after being soundly beaten in Week 12. Both teams are struggling on defense and this a huge game for each of them. The Packers get back to the comfortable confines of Lambeau Field where they are 3-2 while the Panthers are 2-3 on the road. After abandoning the run after getting down in their game against the Saints on MNF the Packers will bring a more balanced attack into this one. Carolina ranks 17th against the run and a solid 9th against the pass. Consider QB Aaron Rodgers as a high-end QB2, RB Ryan Grant as a low-end RB1 and WR Greg Jennings as a mid-range WR1 in this one.

The Panthers have not had a solid, overall offensive showing in recent weeks. That should continue against the Packers who are weak against the run but should be much better against the pass in this one. The Panthers will establish the rush early with RB DeAngelo Williams and then take their shots down field with WR Steve Smith. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is questionable for this game as he wearing a walking boot following the game against the Falcons. We suggest starting Williams and reserving Stewart. QB Jake Delhomme has been brutal in two of his past three games with just 569 passing yards 3 TD and 4 INT in that stretch. You can’t trust him against the Packers pass defense that will be angry and come out fired up after the MNF embarrassment. We suggest that you look elsewhere for your starting QB this weekend. Delhommes’ struggles also make WR Steve Smith a risky play this weekend as well. Consider him no better than a WR2 against the Packers. We see this as a stumble for the Panthers and suggest that you trust no one past Williams from Carolina.

Weather: Light snow and 32 degrees.

DOLPHINS (6-5) @ RAMS (2-9)

The Dolphins came back to earth getting pounded by the Patriots while the Bears ran all over the Rams in Week 12.

The Dolphins get back to playing a bottom feeder this weekend and will take their frustrations of their Week 12 loss out on the hapless Rams. Everyone has their way with the Rams and teams can pick and choose which way they want to beat up on them. The Dolphins will do it with their running game and RB Ronnie Brown. The Rams rank 30th against the run and Brown will have a field day in this one. QB Chad Pennington won’t be asked to throw as much as did last week but he should be considered as a high-end QB2 this weekend. Consider WR Ted Ginn Jr and his speed on the fast track as a mid-range WR2 against the Rams.

After the Lions, the Rams are next in line as the worst team in the NFL. Injuries have played a big part in their demise this season. We told you back in August to be leery of RB Steven Jackson because of his contract hold out and he has been the bust of the year. Things don’t get any easier for the Rams this weekend as they face what is sure to be an angry Dolphins team. With QB Marc Bulger dealing with another concussion Trent Green will be under center for the Rams this weekend. This is not a good thing. Jackson is back at practice and should play this weekend but the Dolphins have the 9th ranked run defense and have allowed just eight rushing touchdowns. Jackson will be rusty so sit him out another week and watch his progress. Do yourself a favor and just stay away from the Rams all together this weekend.

Stats Sleeper

The Dolphins lost WR Greg Camarillo for the season last week and that promotes rookie WR Devon Bess to the #2 receiver role in Miami. The speedy receiver out of Hawaii has been very active in the #3 role over the past few weeks so look for him to get even more looks this weekend.

Weather: Indoor game.

FALCONS (7-4) @ CHARGERS (4-7)

The Falcons ran over the Panthers while the Chargers lost on a last second field goal to the Colts in Week 12.

This is one of the most intriguing match-ups of the week between two teams that have seen their seasons head in totally opposite directions. The Falcons are in the thick of the NFC South playoff race and, because the AFC West is so brutal, the Chargers still have playoff aspirations as well. Falcons RB Michael Turner is coming off a four touchdown performance and faces the team he spent his first four season with for the first time. The Chargers defense has been decent against the run but that’s only because they are horrible against the pass. Expect the Falcons to bring a balanced attack on offense and score a bunch here. QB Matt Ryan, Turner and WR Roddy White are all in for a big game here as this will be a shootout. Get them all started and enjoy.

The Chargers are desperate for a win after dropping two straight games but a total of just four points. RB LT2 has been overshadowed in a big way by his former backup this season but we see him having a big game in this one. As mentioned this will be a shootout style game so start QB Philip Rivers (18-3 with 29 TD’s at home), WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates with confidence and watch the points roll in.

Stats Sleeper

The Falcons extended the contract of WR Michael Jenkins this week and he is overdue for to catch another TD bomb. Expect it to happen here when the Chargers roll too much coverage to Roddy White.

Weather:
Always perfect!

BRONCOS (6-5) @ JETS (8-3)

The Broncos were embarrassed by the Raiders while the Jets steamrolled the previously undefeated Titans in Week 12.

The Jets have won five straight games and look to get it rolling against the Broncos. You would be hard pressed to find a more balanced team than Gang Green who are getting it done on both sides of the ball. Weather could be a factor here but we expect the Jets to score early and often. QB Brett Favre has tossed five touchdowns with just 1 INT in his past three games and you can expect a couple more against the Broncos 25th ranked pass defense. As bad as the Broncos are against the pass, they are even worse against the run with a 27th ranking. RB Thomas Jones is one of the best running backs that no one is talking about. Jones has posted double digit Fantasy points in seven straight games and is averaging almost 19 points a game in that stretch. Get him started! The Jets wide receiving core has been frustrating for Fantasy owners on a weekly basis. Expect low range double digit points from WR Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery in this one. TE Dustin Keller has cooled off since his big game in Week 10 but still makes for a good low-end TE1 this weekend.

The Broncos must be wondering what hit them after they got run over by the Raiders last weekend. The Raiders had gone 15 quarters without an offensive touchdown before RB Darren McFadden scored in the third quarter last week. What is even more shocking is the fact that the Broncos scoring machine could only muster 10 points in this game. It doesn’t get any easier for the Broncos this weekend as they make the cross country trip to the Meadowlands. The Jets have been playing very solid defense but they are suspect against the pass. The Broncos won’t be able to run on the Jets so look for a big game here out of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall. RB Peyton Hillis has stepped up for the Broncos filling in the void left by a rash of injuries but can’t be trusted this weekend against the Jets #3 ranked run defense. TE Tony Scheffler has been working through injuries and has been a bust to this point in the season. Consider him as a high-end TE2 this weekend.

Weather:
Mainly cloudy, chance of rain and 44 degrees.

STEELERS (8-3) @ PATRIOTS (7-4)

The Steelers rolled the Bengals while the Patriots got revenge against the Dolphins in Week 12.

The Patriots and Steelers meet at Gillette Stadium in what should be a very low scoring game. The Steelers are well rested after playing on Thursday last week and are trying to separate themselves from the pesky Ravens. Even with a win here they won’t do it this weekend however because the Ravens get their shot at the Bengals and will roll them. That makes this a must-win game for the Steelers. The Patriots have been solid against the run all season so the Steelers best chance for a win will rely on a solid passing game. QB Ben Roethisberger has been a shell of his former self this season and has managed to top 20 Fantasy points in just three games this season. Expect another mediocre game from Big Ben here and treat him as QB2 against the Pats. RB Willie Parker is still dealing with injuries and, if he plays at all, can’t be trusted against the stout Patriots run defense. RB Mewelde Moore will more playing time again this weekend and should be considered as a high-end RB2 in this one. The Steelers receiving core should not be trusted this weekend. TE Heath Miller returned from injury in Week 12 and had a good game against the Bengals. Consider Miller as a low-end TE1 against the Patriots.

The Patriots are looking to keep pace with the Jets in the AFC East but face a tough challenge against the leagues top ranked defense. QB Matt Cassel has been on fire the past two weeks but he will cool down considerably this weekend. We suggest that you look elsewhere for your starting QB this weekend. The same can be said for everyone from the Patriots offense as points will be hard to come by in this one. Give your Patriots the week off and then enjoy their final four weeks.

Weather: Mix of rain and snow and 43 degrees.

CHIEFS (2-9) @ RAIDERS (2-9)

The Chiefs were pounded by the Bills while the Raiders embarrassed the Broncos in Week 12.

This is a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chiefs offense has been on fire of late but you should know that the Raiders rank 10th against the pass and just shut down the potent Denver passing game. QB Tyler Thigpen has thrown eight touchdowns in his past three games. We do however suggest that you temper your expectations of Thigpen this weekend. Expect all-word cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha to blanket WR Dwayne Bowe and limit his catches and yards. TE Tony Gonzalez remains a must-start TE1 in all formats. With a couple of games under his belt, to get back into playing shape, this should be a breakout game for RB Larry Johnson. Consider him as a low-end RB1 with upside in this one as the Raiders rank 29th against the run.

The Raiders scored 31 points last weekend but don’t let that fool you into thinking that their offense is on the rise. This is still a horrible offense. Other than using Justin Fargas at running back and Darren McFadden as a possible flex position starter, stay away from the Raiders again this weekend.

Weather: Mostly sunny and 67 degrees.

BEARS (6-5) @ VIKINGS (6-5)

The Bears rolled the Rams while the Vikings beat the Jaguars in Week 12.

This is a battle for first place and a leg up in the NFC North. Both of these teams have been mediocre at best the past couple of weeks. We are having a tough time forecasting this game. Both teams should have a tough time running the ball here as the Vikings rank 2nd and the Bears rank 5th against the run. Both teams have a stud at running back and Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte will both put up decent though not huge numbers in this game. Consider them both as a low-end RB1 option. QB’s Gus Frerotte and Kyle Orton have both been risky options in recent weeks and, despite the poor pass defense they both face, they are risky again this weekend. If we had to choose one over the other, we would go with Frerotte as he has better options at receiver. Vikings WR Bernard Berrian has been invisible for the past three weeks but we think he will have a big game here. No one from the Bears receiving core can be trusted in this game.

Weather: Indoor game.

JAGUARS (4-7) @ TEXANS (4-7)

The MNF game features two teams that have struggled in recent weeks. Under the bright lights however, we expect a shootout here. Combined, the Jags and Texans have allowed 35 passing touchdowns while the Texans have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns. Consider Sage Rosenfels and David Garrard both as a high end QB2 this weekend. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew is in line for another big week here and is a low end RB1 against the soft Texans run defense. RB Steve Slaton is a good RB2 in this one and should be started in all formats. When these teams air it out, and they will, look for a big game from WR Andre Johnson and a bounce back game from WR Matt Jones. This could be the last week you can start Jones for the next three as his suspension appeal will be heard on December 4 and we expect it will be upheld. Start TE Owen Daniels as a low-end TE1 in this game and expect double digit Fantasy points.

Weather: Clear and 56 degrees.

Enjoy the games everyone!

StatsGuru

Tags: NFL Weekly Projections

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