With training camp behind us and the preseason underway, some players have already seen their stock rise, while others have seen their stock fall. Marquee name players are largely held out of the first two preseason games, play extensively in the third game and a quarter or so of the fourth preseason game.
That being said, Fantasy Owners should treat the NFL exhibition games the same way that the NFL coaches do. It’s an opportunity for the coaches to have a look at and evaluate their back up, bench and role players. Fantasy owners need to have an equally strong bench, and year in and year out there are diamonds in the rough out there. They may not shine through in the preseason but you can always find some flashes here and there. On the other side of the coin, players can lose their jobs and injuries are always a part of the preseason games. The first week was busy so we will be reviewing all the happenings over the next few days.
Some teams have a lot of unanswered questions, some not so many. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some players that have moved up or down after the week one preseason games.
UP: RB Chris Johnson relieved White early and was impressive in his first preseason game posting 77 RYD 1 TD and a 13 YD reception. Johnson is already in the “Rookie of the Year” talk and showed why the Titans look at him as a Reggie Bush style RB. His stock is on the rise, but how high it can go with White sharing the rock, remains to be seen. Don’t forget, Johnson is super fast with great hands.
DOWN: As we mentioned in our Pre X Games blog, the Titans are moving to a RB by committee spread offense and that’s not good news for RB LenDale White. White did look good in limited time in the Rams game which is good news from an injury stand point (33 RYD on 6 carries). He is still a valuable low-end #2 RB but he is definitely going to lose touches to Johnson which may slide him to a high-end #3 RB.
ON THE BUBBLE: RB Chris Henry is on the bubble but should make the team as the #3 RB. At this point he does not warrant any consideration and won’t unless there are injuries to White and Johnson. WR Roydell Williams is off the PUP list but, despite being the Titans leading receiver in 2007, is still in jeopardy of being cut.
DON’T BE FOOLED BY: RB Quinton Ganther, as did all the Titans, ran wild in the X Opener but he is a long shot to make the 53 man roster. This is due partly to the fact that the Titans are probably not quite ready to give up on Henry just yet. We’re not sure what they are waiting on.
Stats Slant: If you get White you absolutely need to do your best to get Johnson. You can’t really afford to start them both but one or the other should provide you with decent #2 numbers and, if his touches and production continue to expand, Johnson could be a good flex player if your league allows the position.
DOWN: RB Steven Jackson has been held in limbo on most ranking lists while his contract dispute drags out. The situation is not a good thing but missing time at this point in the season is not always an over all bad thing. Jackson knows the offense and is saving wear and tear on his body. One thing he’s not saving is money because he has now forfeited over a quarter million dollars during his holdout. We can’t see this lasting into the season but until it’s resolved, Jackson certainly isn’t endearing himself to his teammates or prospective Fantasy Owners.
DOWN: We weren’t recommending them to begin with, but after giving up 340 rushing yards, the Rams DF/ST should not be on any list anywhere.
DON’T BE FOOLED BY: Anything that any of the Rams RB’s do in the preseason. This is Jacksons’ gig and the window of opportunity to sign him is still wide open. WR Dane Looker caught 4 passes for 74 YD with a long of 47. Looker will make the team because of his special teams play but is still a long way from the #3 WR spot in St. Louis.
Stats Slant: Jackson is going to sign eventually. It is somewhat alarming though that the negotiations seem to be nonexistent. The coveted #3 WR spot is still being contested and may need all four preseason games before the winner emerges.
UP: RB Kevin Smith has started working with the first team in practice after he out performed Tatum Bell in the Lions opener against the Giants.
UP: WR Calvin Johnson busted out against the Giants with a 4 C 78 PYD 1 TD effort. We said he was going to be a beast and he looked the part in his season debut.
DOWN: Obviously this is not good news for Bell and there are whispers that he may not even make the team as he does not have any special teams value to the Lions. It’s still early but Smith and Bell appear to have swapped the #1 RB role.
INJURY UPDATE: PK Jason Hanson strained his left thigh in the Giants game and was replaced by backup Eddie Johnson who kicked the game winning FG. The Lions have signed journeyman kicker Dave Rayner as insurance.
Stats Slant: We like Smith and Johnson and feel both could be in line for a very good, if not, monster season.
UP: QB Matt Leinhart was solid though not spectacular in his first exhibition start. Coach Whisenhunt has said he intends to leave Leinhart in the game once the Cards reach the red zone, where in previous instances, Kurt Warner has come into the game.
DOWN: Warner did not get any reps in the Cards first preseason game, something that he was visibly upset with on the sidelines. It remains to be seen if Warner can continue to be the good soldier through all of this and be a reliable back up.
INJURY UPDATE: WR Anquan Boldin has returned to practice for the Cards. He won’t see much preseason action but that won’t affect his ranking. Expect Boldin to be 100% healthy for the season opener.
Stats Slant: It appears that it’s Leinarts’ job to lose and if he continues to progress and stays healthy, he will be an every down QB. This bodes well for Leinart and should help him surpass his projected numbers. Given the weapons around him, Leinart has the potential to have a big year. We will keep an eye on this as the preseason progresses.
DOWN: RB Willis McGahee has just had his knee scoped and we suspect RB Ray Rice will start on Opening Day in his place. This is the same knee that McGahee has had reconstructed several times and the scope is said to be routine. McGahee showed up at camp out of shape and he will have a lot of work ahead of him once he is healthy. This could have been an UP if he was healthy as the Ravens just signed FB Lorenzo Neal to open holes for McGahee. We will monitor the rehab and keep you posted.
Stats Slant: This goes back to what we said in June, try your best to avoid virtually every Raven on Draft Day ‘08
UP & DOWN: RB Maurice Morris won round one in the battle for the starting RB role over RB Julius Jones. Mo looked good. Julius did not. We expect a RB by committee here as well but Morris could have the upper hand heading into Week One. It should be noted that Duckett fumbled twice in the Hawks first preseason game and could find himself released or just inactive on most Game Days. That should be a small boost to both Morris and Jones’ numbers. Neither are consistent enough at this time though and we still say that you should try to avoid this situation all together.
INJURY UPDATE: The Seahawks lost starting WR Bobby Engram in their Week One preseason game to a cracked shoulder. Engram is expected to be out until the Seahawks return from their Week Four bye at the earliest. We see this as optimistic given that Engram is 35 and his history of injuries. This is a prime example of why teams don’t like to renegotiate contracts. Engram is a classy vet and deserves to be paid better than what he is scheduled to make in ‘08. The Seahawks however must feel some sense of relief that they didn’t send a Brink’s truck to Engram’s front door. This could draw more coverage over to Burleson and that should be monitored. The Seahawks may try to rush Deion Branch back from his ACL rehab but he still hasn’t done anything more than individual drills so far in training camp.
Stats Slant: We didn’t have Engram penciled in as anything more than a #3 WR to begin with, but his injury will reverberate throughout the Seahawks starting rotation. What was a battle for the starting slot position has now turned into a battle for the flanker spot between Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor with the loser getting the slot position. Obomanu, who caught 4 balls for 63 YDS in the Seahawks Divisonal Playoff game, looks to be the more obvious choice here. We will watch this situation.
UP: The Packers VRS QB Brett Favre saga finally came to an end when the Packers traded Favre to the Jets. The deal is loaded with conditions and performance clauses that could end up in the Packers receiving a few rolls of tape and a couple of footballs in the end. The NFL is usually 100% bullet proof. However, this whole deal was handled poorly on all sides and the NFL can’t be happy about it. Even the most common observer knows Favre, and even they think the whole saga is just plain sad. One has to wonder if EA Sports thought they had a collectors item on their hands by putting the then retired Favre on the cover of Madden NFL 09. What about the Madden Curse?? Sorry, we digress!
UP: QB Chad Pennington has moved on to the Dolphins and we will touch on that later.
Stats Slant: It’s hard to move any way other than up when your last level of ranking was retirement. We are going to reserve our Fantasy opinion on Favre and the impact he will have on the Jets and the players around him until we see him in game action. That action will be when the Jets are at home hosting the Redskins in the second week of preseason (16/08/08).
UP: WR James Hardy appears to be winning the battle to start opposite Lee Evans as we suggested back in June. He had a spotty game against the Redskins but did catch one ball for 16 YD and a TD. Roscoe Parrish has been lining up in the slot and caught 3 balls for 60 YD. Josh Reed appears to be the odd man out as his recovery from back surgery has been slow.
Stats Slant: The Bills needed a big body opposite Evans and they appear to have found him in the 6′ 7″ Hardy. He is relatively unpolished by NFL standards and we are still not sold on QB Trent Edwards but we will monitor his progress as he could turn in to a super sleeper.
UP: QB Jason Campbell was impressive in his short stint against the Bills. He looked poised and confident in the Washington’s new West Coast offense. He is not being challenged in camp and that has to be a huge boost to his confidence.
Stats Slant: We still aren’t prepared to move him up to a #1 QB status but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
The battle for the backup RB role in SD is extremely competitive and didn’t show any signs of letting up in the Chargers Week 1 exhibition game against Dallas. Darren Sproles plus rookies Jacob Hester and Marcus Thomas all made an impact as Hester rushed for 2 TD (one while both first teams were on the field), Sproules rushed for 1 TD and Thomas carried 13 times for 48 YD.
DOWN: TE Antonio Gates did not dress for the Cowboys game and his recovery from toe surgery has been slow and very painful. He still hasn’t participated in any team drills and continues to work out on the side. Gates has said he expects to be ready for Week One but has also stated he won’t start until he is 100%.
INJURY UPDATE: LT2 has been battling a slight groin sprain and did not dress for the Dallas game. It’s nothing serious and LT2 rarely plays in the exhibition season. QB Philip Rivers was sharp in leading the Chargers on two TD drives in the four series that he played. His rehab from offseason knee surgery appears to be 100% complete.
Stats Slant: We don’t see Sproles losing his roster spot because of his value on Special Teams but the handcuff for LT2 probably won’t be determined until Week 4 of the exhibition season. The slow recovery by Gates should be a major concern for Fantasy Owners as it has been way longer than originally anticipated. At this point, we have moved him out of the Top Five at the TE position. Moving him back up again won’t happen until he can prove he is 100% healthy.
UP: The Cowboys were looking for someone to step up to fill the role of flanker and the #3 WR position. They may have found him in 6′ 3″ 3rd year man Miles Austin. In the Week One preseason game against the Chargers, Austin caught 5 balls for 64 YD. A couple of them came in heavy traffic and left a lasting impression on Cowboys WRs coach Ray Sherman. Austin has spent the last three years primarily on Special Teams.
LOST IN SPACE: The Cowboys cut WR Terry Glenn before the start of the preseason games apparently ending what turned out to be a very bad “grocery shopping” trip by Bill Parcells. The Cowboys may still bring him back, but at this point, Glenn should be removed from all WR lists as he is out of football all together.
Stats Slant: Should Austin win the #3 WR role, he would have instant sleeper value in the Cowboys vaunted offense. It is still early, but we will be keeping a close eye on the #3 WR competition in Dallas.
DOWN: RB Ryan Grant is on a fast train from being a Fantasy Sleeper Stud in ‘07 to possibly being a Fantasy Dud in ‘08. First he held out in camp, then he lost his starting QB when Favre went to the Jets and now he has a hamstring injury. He is listed as day to day and is expected to get past it, but he has disaster written all over him. Keep in mind that until Rodgers can prove that he can spread the field, Grant will see a lot of eight man fronts which may lead to a rocky start and reduced numbers.
UP: QB Aaron Rodgers looked very confident and poised in his first start against the Bengals. Several Packer players had miscues that lead to a couple hits and the INT Rodgers threw, but none of it seemed to phase him. The Packers clearly looked like Rodgers team while he was in there.
Stats Slant: We already had Grant as a #2 RB and while he hasn’t slipped much, his start to the ‘08 season has not been a good one. Start out behind, stay behind! Temper your expectations of Grant in ‘08. Rodgers on the other hand should be drafted with confidence as a reliable #2 QB.
Stay Tuned!
StatsGuru
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