Vegas Fantasy Football Picks

2008-09 NFL Wild Card Weekend

January 2nd, 2009 · No Comments

Welcome to a review of our Week 17 Beasts and Busts and a preview of Wild Card Weekend. We saved our best for last and had an outstanding Week 17. Many of you play in Playoff Fantasy Pools, so we will review our Week 17 NFL Projections and then move on to the four playoff games occurring this weekend.

RAMS 27 @ FALCONS 31

We expected a huge game out of RB Michael Turner in this one and that’s just what we got. Turner ran wild for 208 yards and 1 TD. QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White posted the QB2 and WR2 numbers we forecasted. Ryan passed 160 yards and 1 TD but also threw 2 INT’s. White had 48 yards and 1 TD. We expected a mediocre day from QB Marc Bulger but he posted decent numbers with 230 yards and 1 TD. RB Steven Jackson got to the 1,000 rushing mark as we expected and was the RB1 we forecasted. In fact, he went off with 215 total yards and 2 TD’s. As predicted, everyone else from the Rams was a bust. Stats Sleeper, RB Jerious Norwood was huge with 78 yards and 2 TD’s. We are looking forward to the Falcons V Cardinals first round playoff game!

PATRIOTS 13 @ BILLS 0

The Patriots put an end to the Bills once promising season by shutting them out in wicked winds at Orchard Park. The wind forced both teams to stay on the ground and QB Matt Cassel was a total bust with just eight pass attempts, six completions and 78 yards. If we had access to a live feed on Sunday morning, we would have advised you to sit Cassel and everyone else in this game. Hopefully you did. RB Sammy Morris had 85 yards, RB Lamont Jordan had 64 yards and 1 TD while RB Kevin Faulk was a bust. Once we saw the weather on Sunday morning we would have suggested sitting WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker as well and they combined for three catches for 39 yards.

We told you that the Bills wouldn’t put up much of a fight in this one and they didn’t. QB Trent Edwards fell below the QB2 numbers we expected with just 128 yards. As suggested, RB Marshawn Lynch didn’t play this weekend due to injury. RB Fred Jackson posted the RB2 type numbers we forecasted with 136 yards. WR Lee Evans produced exactly as we predicted. He got the 46 receiving yards he needed to top the 1,000 mark and finished with 63 yards on the day. WR Josh Reed was the bust we forecasted he would be. As suggested no TE from either team produced any Fantasy numbers

CHIEFS 6 @ BENGALS 16

This was an ugly game from start to finish. We tried to find some positives Fantasy wise in this game and, for the most part we did. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t produce as we expected and was held to 158 total yards. The Chiefs had one QB sack and set a new all time record low at ten. RB Cedric Benson produced as expected and closed out the season strong with 130 total yards and 1 TD. Neither WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh or WR Chad Johnson played in this one. WR Chris Henry was the bust we predicted with two catches for 19 yards. We expected a better effort but the Chiefs were surprisingly flat in this game. QB Tyler Thigpen produced the QB2 numbers we expected with 191 yards and 1 TD. We missed on RB Larry Johnson who was a total bust with just 18 yards on 10 carries. WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez both reached the double digit points that we suggested they would.

BEARS 24 @ TEXANS 31

As expected, the Texans gave it their all at home and finished at .500 for the season. We told you a couple guys would have bounce back weeks and they did. QB Matt Schaub reached 3,000 passing yards as we suggested and finished with 328 yards and 2 TD’s. WR Andre Johnson also produced as we forecasted and had 146 yards and 2 TD’s. RB Steve Slaton finished stronger than we expected with 128 total yards and 1 TD. We told you to start him but certainly didn’t expect those kind of numbers. TE Owen Daniels was a bust with three catches for 37 yards. For the Bears, QB Kyle Orton produced way higher than expected numbers with 246 pass yards, 2 TD passes and one rushing TD. RB Matt Forte, on the other hand, was disappointing with just 75 total yards. No one else from the Bears posted any high end or meaningful Fantasy numbers

GIANTS 19 @ VIKINGS 20

The Vikings did as they had to do and beat the Giants on a last second 50 yard field goal. As we expected QB Eli Manning and WR Domenik Hixon didn’t play much in this game and RB Brandon Jacobs didn’t play at all. The Giants got RB Derrick Ward the 52 yards he needed to reach the 1,000 mark for the season and he finished with 77 (we had him getting 70 yards). TE Kevin Boss was also inactive for this game. We said the Vikings would need a big game from Adrian Peterson if they were to win this game and they got it. AP rushed for 103 yards and 1 TD. We expected a slight drop off by QB Tavrvaris Jackson and a day in the 15 point range. That’s exactly what we got as Jackson had 239 yards and 1 TD with 1 INT. The Vikings receiving core also produced as we expected though WR Bernard Berian did have a 54 yard TD catch that bumped up his overall total. TE Visanthe Shiancoe went from beast to bust and has been frustrating for his owners all season long. Stats Sleeper. RB Chester Taylor was a bust with just 29 total yards.

PANTHERS 31 @ SAINTS 30

We said this game would be a shoot out and it certainly was. As suggested, the Panthers ran, then ran, than ran some more in this one as they had 42 rushing attempts. RB DeAngelo Williams had 178 yards and his performance locked up the RB Fantasy MVP title. Despite some off weeks recently, we told you to trust rookie RB Jonathan Stewart as an RB2 in this one. Stewart produced with 56 yards and 1 TD. As suggested, QB Jake Delhomme played the entire game and produced as predicted with 250 yards and 1 TD. We said WR Steve Smith would rebound from a subpar outing in Week 16 and he did with 134 yards though it was disappointing that he did not score. We said the Saints would do everything they could to get Brees the NFL passing record and they did. Brees finished his QB Fantasy MVP season with 386 yards and 4 TD’s with 1 INT. He had a chance to break the record on the final play of the game but threw his worst pass of the year and missed the record by 16 yards. RB Pierre Thomas sat out this game due to wrist and back injuries. We told you to start WR Marques Colston and WR Lance Moore and they both had a monster game. Colston had 7 catches for 123 yards and 1 TD while Moore hauled in 8 passes for 91 yards and 2 TD’s. We told you to sit TE Jeremy Shockey and start TE Billy Miller and that was the right thing to do as Shockey did not play and Miller had 3 catches for 56 yards. Stats Sleeper, TE Dante Rasario, was a bust as he failed to register a catch.

BROWNS 0 @ STEELERS 31

The Steelers regrouped and pounded on the Browns. We warned you to stay away from the Steelers QB crew and that was good advice as they combined for just 193 pass yards and no touchdowns. We were very surprised by the amount of playing time RB Willie Parker had and he produced huge numbers with 116 yards and 1 TD. RB Mewelde Moore was a surprise bust and the Steelers WR core were the busts we predicted. As suggested, the Steelers top Fantasy point producer was their defense in this one as they shutout the Browns as we predicted they would. The Browns were held to just 126 net yards and a despicable 26 of them came via the pass. We told you to sit your Browns and hopefully you did.

RAIDERS 31 @ BUCCANEERS 24

The Bucs free fall hit rock bottom as they lost for the first time at home this season to the lowly Raiders. QB Jeff Garcia had a typical game with 267 total yards and 1 TD with 1 INT. We said that the Bucs would lean on RB Cadillac Williams more than RB Warrick Dunn in this one and they did. Williams responded with 115 total yards and 2 TD’s before leaving the game with a knee injury. That made Dunn a bust as he didn’t even reach the RB2 numbers we suggested and finished with just 37 yards. WR Antonio Bryant cooled off some in this one and had three catches for 77 yards. The Bucs TE situation was a bust as we suggested. The Bucs defense didn’t put in the type of effort we expected in this one and made some of the Raiders look like Fantasy Studs. RB Michael Bush led the way with 183 total yards and 2 TD’s. That being said, if you were still starting any Raider player, we’re pretty sure your Fantasy season was over a long time ago. The Raiders had a nice finish to their season so hopefully it’s a sign of things to come.

TITANS 0 @ COLTS 23

This one went exactly as we predicted it would. The Colts got their record by becoming the first team in NFL history to have 12 or more wins in six consecutive seasons. QB Peyton Manning got 95 yards (we said he would get 94) to put him over 4,000 on the season and that was it for him as we predicted. We told you there wasn’t any value in the Colts backfield and there wasn’t. We suggested that you had to sit WR’s Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and hopefully you did as they combined for 46 yards. WR Anthony Gonzalez was also a bust in this one. As predicted, TE Dallas Clark got the 41 yards he needed to break the single season receiving record for a Colts TE and then sat out the rest of the game. As we predicted, everyone from the Titans saw even less work than the Colts players and sitting them was the way to go. Stats Sleeper, RB Chris Henry, was a bust…sorry about that one!

LIONS 21 @ PACKERS 31

The Lions finished off their “perfect” season but, to their credit, they didn’t go down without a fight. QB Dan Orlovsky had 225 yards with 2 TD’s but that was offset by 2 INT’s. RB Kevin Smith produced the low end RB1 numbers we predicted with 99 total yards and 1 TD. WR Calvin Johnson was a stud again catching nine passes for 102 yards and 2 TD’s. The Packers played as we expected as many of them were chasing individual career marks. QB Aaron Rodgers reached 4,000 yards in his first year as a starter and finished with 308 yards and 3 TD’s. RB Ryan Grant rushed for 106 yards and reached 1,200 rushing yards on the season as we said he would. WR Greg Jennings barely missed the 1,300 receiving yard mark as he finished with 101 yards and came up seven yards short. WR Donald Driver had 111 yards and 1 TD to get him over 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season. TE Donald Lee was a bust as he failed to register a catch. We told you to start your Packers and expect them to produce and they certainly did.

JAGUARS 7 @ RAVENS 27

This was another game that went exactly as we suggested it would. The Ravens pounded the ground with 34 rushing attempts. LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee both produced as we expected as they combined for 139 yards and 3 TD’s. QB Joe Flacco produced the QB2 numbers we expected with 297 pass yards. As suggested, WR Derrick Mason reached 1,000 yards for the seventh time in eight years with six catches for 77 yards in this one. WR Mark Clayton produced the low end WR2 numbers we predicted with 128 yards. TE Todd Heap was the bust we predicted again this week. We suggested that the Ravens had a shot at a shutout here and while it didn’t happen, thee Jags were only able to put seven points on the board. We told you to sit your Jags and hopefully you did as none of them reached double digit Fantasy points.

SEAHAWKS (21) @ CARDINALS (34)

The beat goes on as we were nearly flawless in our forecast of this one as well. We expected a big effort from the Cardinals in this one and they delivered. As suggested, QB Kurt Warner bounced back big time in this one and finished with 293 yards with 4 TD’s and 1 INT. As we predicted, WR Larry Fitzgerald reached new career highs for receiving yards and TD’s and finished the day with 130 yards and 2 TD’s. We warned you about starting WR Aquan Boldin and he did not play in this one. WR Steve Breaston filled in and produced the double digit points we forecasted with 91 yards and 1 TD. We suggested that the Cards would try to get some production out of the backfield in this one and they certainly did. The production however came from an unlikely source in the form of RB Edgerrin James who rushed for 100 yards on 14 carries. Maybe the Cardinals knew what they were doing all along by keeping Edge fresh for the playoff run. We didn’t expect the Seahawks to mail it in this weekend and they put up a decent fight. QB Seneca Wallace was the mid range QB2 we predicted with 250 yards, 2 TD’s but he threw 2 INT’s. RB Maurice Morris produced the low end RB2 numbers we suggested with 73 total yards. WR Deion Branch had a better than expected day with 90 yards and 2 TD’s. Bobby Engram was the WR3 we forecasted with six catches for 50 yards. Rookie TE John Carlson had a disappointing finish with just two catches for 14 yards. Expect bigger and better things from him in 2009.

REDSKINS 24 @ 49ERS 27

The 49ers finished strong with 4-1 run to close out the year and won with a field goal as time expired. We expected the 49ers to finish strong and get Coach Singletary the full time Head Coaching job and they did. We didn’t spend a lot of time on this game as we didn’t see much Fantasy value from anyone here. That was certainly the case as the top producer was RB Clinton Portis who had 80 yards and 1 TD. After that, everyone from both teams posted mediocre numbers at best.

DOLPHINS 24 @ JETS 17

The Dolphins took care of business and went from a 1-15 team to AFC East Champs. QB Chad Pennington put in the solid effort we expected and finished with 200 yards and 2 TD’s. As we forecasted, both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams were shut down in this game. WR Davone Bess was targeted all day and had six receptions but couldn’t break lose and finished with just 39 yards. TE Anthony Fasano produced the TE2 numbers we expected with 39 yards and 1 TD. TE David Martin was a bust though with just one catch for eight yards. We warned against starting QB Brett Favre and he had a dismal day with 233 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT”s. RB Thomas Jones was also a disappointment after a huge year with just 23 rushing yards. Apart from 88 yards and a TD from WR Coles, the Jets receiving core was a bust in this one. So to was TE Dustin Keller who finished with two catches for 24 yards. Stats Sleeper, RB Leon Washington, had a big day with 89 total yards and 1 TD.

COWBOYS 6 @ EAGLES 44

The Eagles crushed Dallas to earn the final playoff spot in the NFC and embarrassed the Cowboys in the process. QB Donovan McNabb produced as we expected with 175 yards and 2 TD’s. He also ran one in for a TD. RB Brian Westbrook produced the mid range RB2 numbers we warned you he would with 62 total yards and was pulled once the game out of control. The Eagles receiving core was the bust we predicted that they would be. Our lone clunker of the week came in this one. We were wrong, way wrong, about the Cowboys as they embarrassed themselves and us in this one.

BRONCOS 21 @ CHARGERS 52

We told you to bet the house on the Bolts and hopefully you did. The Chargers battered the Broncos all game and won the AFC West title. Coach Mike Shanahan was fired this week because of the Broncos collapse down the stretch. Karma Baby, Karma! We should have been a little more specific on this one as things didn’t turn out, scoring wise, quite as we expected. QB Phillip Rivers finished his amazing ‘08 season with 207 yards and 2 TD’s. RB LT2 had 96 yards and 3 TD’s before leaving the game in the third quarter with a tight hamstring. The Chargers receiving core put up less than expected numbers and disappointed their Fantasy owners. The Chargers didn’t need to pass much though as they gashed the Broncos for 289 yards on the ground. RB Darren Sproles had a huge game with 132 total yards and 2 TD”s. The Broncos crushed the dreams of their Fantasy owners with a basic no show. Their most productive starter was the guy we least expected to have an impact. RB Tatem Bell finished with 117 total yards and 2 TD’s. TE Tony Scheffler was also good in this one with 75 yards and 1 TD. The rest of the Bronocs were busts.

There’s your wrap of Week 17 as we saved our best for last. It’s playoff time and many of you play in Fantasy Playoff drafts so let’s take a look at the four games that will be played on Wild Card Weekend.

FALCONS (11-5) @ CARDINALS (9-7

The Wild Card Week kicks off in the desert where the Cards and their fans get their first playoff game ever. For the first time since the Wild Card format was instituted, all four home teams are the underdogs this weekend starting with the Cardinals. This game features two prolific offenses and two middle of the road defenses so it should be a high scoring affair. The Cardinals backed into the playoffs by winning just two of their last six games while the Falcons went 5-1 down the stretch. These two teams have met just three times in the last four years. The Falcons hold a 2-1 advantage with two of the games being decided by three points. The latest meeting was Week 16 last year and the Cards won that one 30-27 in OT.

RANKINGS

On defense, the Cardinals rank 22nd against the pass and gave up a staggering 36 passing touchdowns which was the most in the league in 2008. They rank 16th in run defense and gave up just 13 rushing touchdowns. That ranking however has more to do with teams playing shootouts with the Cards or taking advantage of their weak secondary than it does the Cards playing stellar run defense. The Cards registered 31 sacks and had 13 INT’s. On offense, the Cardinals rank 2nd in passing and scored 31 touchdowns through the air. They are a dismal, dead last, in rushing offense having gained an average of just 73 yards per game while scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Falcons rank 21st against the pass and gave up 20 passing touchdowns. They rank 25th against the run and allowed 17 rushing touchdowns. The Falcons registered 28 sacks and had 15 INT’s. On offense, The Falcons rank 14th in passing and scored 16 touchdowns through the air. They are 2nd in rushing offense and scored 23 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 152 yards per game.

We like the Falcons in this one as we feel that they are the more balanced team in this game. For the Falcons, it all starts with RB Michael Turner who was lights out in his first year as a starter. The Falcons know going into this game that they will have to run the ball. They need to control the time of possession while keeping the Cards air show grounded and on the sidelines. Turner rushed for 1,699 yards with a 4.5 yards per carry average and scored 17 rushing touchdowns this season. We expect over 100 yards and 2 TD’s from Turner in this one. When the Falcons take shots down the field, they will do so with Associated Press Rookie Of The Year QB Matt Ryan. We think it should have been Bears RB Matt Forte but whatever. Ryan had a stellar rookie season and showed great poise and leadership.

The Falcons have been playing in meaningful games all season and Ryan has not shown any cracks in his game. We don’t expect a monster game from Ryan in this one but somewhere in the range of 225 yards and 2 TD’s would not be a surprise. The Cardinals have to be aware of where WR Roddy White is at on the field at all times. White had 1,382 receiving yards with a 15.7 average and seven touchdowns this season. He will draw double coverage from the Cards in this one but we expect him to post 80 yards and 1 TD. The fringe players for the Falcons can show up and hurt you at any point in the game. RB Jerious Norwood and WR Marty Jenkins are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Expect 60 yards from Jenkins and 70 yards out of Norwood who should also score in this one. The Falcons don’t have a reliable TE from a Fantasy stand point.

The Cardinals have been a one dimensional team all season but if they are going to have success in this one, that will have to change some. The Cards clinched the weak NFC West weeks ago and they basically backed into the playoffs. QB Kurt Warner was in the running for league MVP but subpar efforts from Week 13 on ended that speculation. Make no mistake, with 4,583 yards and 30 TD’s, Warner had an outstanding season.

The Falcons are well aware of the Cardinals inability to run the ball though. They will bring constant pressure and Warner is prone to mistakes in those situations. We see him passing for 300 yards and 2 TD’s but the TD’s will be offset by a couple of INT’s. As mentioned, the Cards rushing attack has been non-existent this season as RB’s Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower combined for just 913 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. James had 100 rushing yards in Week 17 and you have to wonder if that was a preview of what the Falcons can expect in this one. James had just 133 carries this season so he is fresh and he could do some damage here. There are better running backs out there this weekend but expect James to register 80 rushing yards and for Hightower to vulture the Cards lone rushing TD.

The Cards have the best trio of wide receivers in the league in Larry Fitzgerald, WR Aquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. All three of them had over a 1,000 yards receiving and combined for 26 touchdowns. We expect around 100 yards and a TD from both Fitzgerald and Boldin while Breaston should pitch in with 70 yards receiving. Cardinals TE Jerheme Urban had 448 yards and scored four TD’s in the regular season but is too unreliable from a Fantasy perspective. Expect a modest 40 or so yards out of Urban in this one.

BOTTOM LINE: This will be close game. If the Cardinals can find their running game, the edge swings to home team. If they don’t, the Falcons crash the party and move on to Carolina.

STATS SCORE: Falcons 28 Cardinals 24

COLTS (12-5) @ CHARGERS (8-8)

The late game on Wild Card Saturday features two of the hottest teams in football right now. The Colts have won nine straight games while the Chargers have won four straight. The Chargers have been playing in playoff style games over that four game stretch as they were fighting for their playoff lives while the Colts have been locked into the 5th seed for several weeks now. Neither team has faced very stiff competition over the past few weeks. The Colts won the Week 12 matchup between these two in San Diego by a 23-20 score on a 51 yard field goal as time expired.

RANKINGS

On defense, the Chargers rank 31st against the pass and gave up 25 passing touchdowns. They rank 11th in run defense and gave up 11 TD’s on the ground. The Chargers registered 28 sacks and had 15 INT’s. On offense, the Chargers rank 7th in passing and scored 34 touchdowns through the air. They rank 20th in rushing and scored 13 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Colts rank 6th against the pass and gave up a league low six passing touchdowns. No one else was even close to that number as 12 was the next lowest given up by the Steelers and Titans. They rank 24th against the run and gave up 18 TD’s on the ground. The Colts registered 30 sacks and had 15 INT’s. On offense, the Colts rank 5th in passing and scored 27 touchdowns through the air. They rank 31st in rushing and scored 13 touchdowns on the ground while averaging a dismal 79 yards per game. We find it amazing that the Cards and Colts are both playoff teams while ranking last and second last in rushing offense.

Of the four games this weekend, this one should be the one with the most points on the board. Like the Falcons, the Chargers will want to run the ball and keep the Colts offense on the sidelines. RB LT2 has had a down year, by his standards, but still managed 1,100 rushing yards and 11 rushing TD’s. He came out of the game early in the second half last week with a sore groin but has said he is ready to go. He is not the stud of recent years but, if healthy, we expect a big game from LT2 and pencil him for 130 total yards and 2 TD’s. QB Phillip Rivers had an outstanding 2008 with 4,009 yards and 34 TD’s. With the Colts run defense in shambles for most of the season teams ran all day and didn’t force the pass.

The Chargers will need to take some shots downfield in this game though and we expect a decent game of 280 yards and at least 1 TD out of Rivers. The Chargers have a good receiving core in WR Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. Jackson had a career year with 1,098 yards and seven touchdowns while Chambers battled through injuries and managed just 462 yards but scored five touchdowns. They are both healthy for this game and should produce decent numbers. Expect 80 yards and a TD from Jackson while Chambers should pitch in another 70 yards. TE Antonio Gates had 704 yards and 8 TD’s on the season but is dealing with an ankle injury.

It’s difficult to predict how effective Gates will be in this game. We do think he will play however and expect 60 yards with a possible TD. The sleeper for the Chargers is RB/KR Darren Sproles whose playing time will depend on the health of LT2. If Tomlinson can’t go or is ineffective, look for Sproles to pick up the slack. He’s a risky start but could be used as flex starter in this one.

The Colts will come out firing at the Chargers suspect secondary. QB Peyton Manning had a slow start to the season but finished very strong and passed for 4,002 yards and 27 touchdowns. Apart from his offseason surgery, Manning had to deal with injuries to his offensive line early in the season. The starters come into this game healthy and have allowed just two sacks in the last five games. That’s not good news for the Chargers and we expect Manning will be the top passer this weekend. We forecast 320 yards and three Manning TD passes in this one. The Colts running game has been limited by injuries to the O-line and their backs this season. With those injuries behind them now we expect the Colts to use a mix of a 2:1 pass/run ratio in this one. That being said, we expect that RB Joseph Addai and RB Dominick Rhodes will share the workload here which renders them both risky plays this weekend.

The 130 or so rush yards and possible 1 TD they will split means you should look for other options at the RB position this weekend. WR Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez will all be vying for looks from Manning. Being as such, our order of preference is Wayne at 110 yards and 2 TD’s, Harrison at 60 yards and Gonzalez at 50 yards and 1 TD. Your stud of the week at TE is Dallas Clark from the Colts. No TE has been hotter to close out the season and we fully expect Clark to keep it rolling in this one. Pencil in Clark for close to 100 yards 1 TD.

BOTTOM LINE: If the Chargers injured players are ineffective and the secondary plays poorly, as they have for most of the season, the Colts will move on to a date with the Steelers at Hines Field next weekend. Check the actives lists before starting anyone who is dealing with injuries in this game.

STATS SCORE: Colts 31 Chargers 27

RAVENS (11-5) @ DOLPHINS (11-5)

The early game on Sunday features two of the most surprising teams from the 2008 season. Not much was expected from either of these teams in preseason but here they are battling on Wild Card Weekend. Of the four games this weekend we see this one as one of the easier games to predict. Read on to find out why.

RANKINGS

On defense, the Dolphins rank 25th against the pass and gave up 18 passing touchdowns. They rank 10th in run defense and gave up 11 rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins registered 40 sacks and had 18 INT’s. On offense, the Dolphins rank 10th in passing and scored 20 Touchdowns through the air. They rank 11th in rushing and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Ravens were stellar on both sides of the ball. They rank 3rd in run defense and gave up a league low four rushing touchdowns. They rank 2nd against the pass and gave up 17 passing touchdowns. The Ravens registered 34 sacks and lead the league with 26 INT’s. On offense, the Ravens rank 28th in passing and scored 16 touchdowns through the air. They rank 4th in rushing and scored 20 TD’s on the ground.

The Dolphins have enjoyed a Cinderella season but are about to turn into pumpkins. We have a huge amount of respect for their turn around this season but we don’t see this game being close at all. The Ravens defense is just too good and the Dolphins offense is just too mediocre. QB Chad Pennington earned his second Come Back Player Of The Year in three seasons this year. He’s a good game manager for the Dolphins but doesn’t post nearly enough numbers to be considered as your starting Fantasy QB this weekend. Pennington threw just seven INT’s all season but, facing constant pressure this weekend, we see that number rising. Expect a modest 210 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s from Pennington in this one.

Neither RB Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams will be very effective here as the Ravens limited to the Dolphins to just 71 rushing yards in the Week 7 matchup won by the Ravens 27-13. We don’t see this combo gaining more than 80 total rushing yards and don’t see either of them scoring. With the running game rendered ineffective the Ravens will be able to cover the Dolphins receivers with relative ease. Neither WR Ted Ginn Jr. or WR Davone Bess should be started in this one. We do see some limited value at the TE position for the Dolphins but it’s a tough call as to who will be more effective of the two. TE Anthony Fasano and TE David Martin seem to alternate good games between them on a weekly basis. There are certainly better choices at TE than these two this weekend but we will give the edge to Martin and pencil him in at 45 yards and the lone Dolphin pass TD.

The Ravens do just enough on offense to go along with their defensive scoring to win games. TE Joe Flacco improved by leaps and bounds as the season wore on and ended up passing for 2,971 yards and 14 TD’s. That being said, like Pennigton, he can’t be trusted as your starting QB this weekend. The Ravens love to pound the ball on the ground and wear teams down. That will be their MO again this weekend. Expect Flacco to pass for 220 yards and 1 TD with 1 INT. The Ravens three headed monster of RB LeRon McClain, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice are all expected to play in this game. Expect the top producer to be McClain with 95 yards and 1 TD, followed by McGahee with 70 yards and 1 TD and Rice to chip in with 40 yards.

WR Derrick Mason has been dealing with a shoulder injury all season and has proved to be one the toughest players in football. Pencil Mason in for 70 yards and expect him to catch the Ravens lone TD through the air. WR Michael Clayton is a hit or miss weekly and you should expect 60 yards or so from him in this one. TE Todd Heap has been asked to block more than catch passes all season and that will be the case again this weekend against the blitz happy Dolphin defense. Keep your expectations of Heap in check as anything above 50 receiving yards would be a surprise.

BOTTOM LINE: The Ravens stellar defense and the points they score on that side of the ball will be too much for the Dolphins to overcome in this one. The Ravens head to Tennessee for a matchup against the Titans once this one is over.

STATS SCORE: Ravens 31 Dolphins 13

EAGLES (9-6-1) @ VIKINGS (10-5)

The Vikings won five of their last six games to win the NFC North while the Eagles won four of their last five to sneak in the back door as the last Wild Card team in the NFC. Like the Ravens @ Dolphins game we are fairly certain of the outcome of this game.

On defense, the Vikings rank 18th against the pass and gave up 15 passing touchdowns. They rank 1st in run defense and gave up 10 rushing touchdowns. The Vikings registered 45 sacks and had 15 INT’s. On offense, the Vikings rank 25th in passing and scored 22 touchdowns through the air. They rank 5th in rushing and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Eagles rank 3rd against the pass and gave up 19 passing touchdowns. They rank 4th in run defense and gave up just seven rushing touchdowns. The Eagles registered 48 sacks and had 19 INT’s. On offense, the Eagles rank 6th in passing and scored 23 touchdowns through the air. They rank 22nd in rushing and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground.

The Vikings needed a Week 17 win against a resting Giants team to clinch the NFC North title. They won three of their last four games with RB Tavaris Jackson under center and he will be at the helm again this weekend. The main reason Jackson lost his starting job, apart from being relatively ineffective, was his poor decision making that resulted in way too many turnovers. This is not a good spot for Jackson as the Eagles blitzing, attack defense will force Jackson into making mistakes this weekend. If QB Gus Frerotte is anywhere near close to healthy, we expect to see him in this game at some point. That makes both of them the worst possible starting QB’s this weekend. Avoid this situation all together.

RB Adrian Peterson was projected by many as the top Fantasy RB going into the season. He posted a league high 1,757 rushing yards but managed just 10 rushing touchdowns and did not have a receiving touchdown. He also fumbled nine times and that’s an alarming total for a featured back. We expect the Vikings to lean heavily on AP in this one but we certainly don’t expect monster numbers against the stout Eagles defense. AP will be in the starting roster for many Fantasy teams this weekend but we suggest a modest 90 yards and 1 TD day out him. With Jackson struggling at QB for the Vikings it’s hard to trust anyone from the Vikings receiving core here. WR Bernard Berrian has been hit or miss all season but he’s a home run threat any time he touches the ball. We don’t see many touches for him this weekend though and forecast a four catch 45 yard day from him in this one.

WR Bobby Wade is a decent possession receiver in the slot position but he rarely tops 60 yards and had just two touchdowns all year. Leave him on the bench this weekend. TE Visanthe Shiancoe was another hit or miss player for the Vikings this season. The Eagles generally don’t cover the TE position well so Shiancoe has some sleeper value in this one. There are better options out there but we expect 60 yards and a possible TD from Shiancoe this weekend.

The Eagles finished off their miracle run to the playoffs with a 44-6 beat down of the Cowboys in Week 17. They must be feeling very good about themselves and are brimming with confidence heading into this one. The Eagles have owned the Vikings in recent meetings and we expect that will be the case again this weekend. QB Donavan McNabb is in a good spot here as the Vikings pass defense is one of their glaring weaknesses. If McNabb is your starting QB this weekend, expect close to 250 yards with two passing touchdowns and another possible rushing TD. RB Brian Westbrook got some much needed rest in the second half of the Eagles blowout of the Cowboys last weekend. He’s been dealing with various injuries all season but we expect him to start and produce against the Vikings. It’s still unclear if DT Pat Williams will play this weekend as he tries to recover from a fractured shoulder. Even if he does start, we wonder how effective he will be.

Westbrook is a strong start this weekend and you can expect close to 150 total yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles receiving core is relatively shaky as neither DeSean Jackson or Kevin Curtis are reliable options from week to week. Expect somewhere in the range of 60 yards form both of them with a TD coming from Curtis. The Eagles have been using L.J. Smith and Brent Celek in tandem at the TE position and that makes them both a risky start this weekend. Expect Smith to post 35 yards and Celek to be slightly better at close to 45 yards with a score.

BOTTOM LINE: The Eagles defense will be way too much for the mistake prone Vikings and will head to the Meadowlands for a showdown with the Giants next weekend.

STATS SCORE: Eagles 27 Vikings 17

That’s it for Wild Card Weekend and we hope this helps your decision making process.

Enjoy The Games Everybody!

StatsGuru

Tags: NFL Weekly Projections

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