Welcome to our Super Bowl addition of Beasts and Busts. We were 1 and 1 on Championship Sunday so let’s review the results before we move on to our Super Bowl preview.

EAGLES 25 @ CARDINALS 32

We forecasted a 31 – 24 Cardinals victory in this one and called it as close to perfect as it gets. We said the Cardinals would be out for revenge and the way they piled on the points in the first half they certainly looked like they were going to get it. A sleepy third quarter and rough start to the fourth quarter put the Cards down by one point. The Cards got up off the mat though and went on a 14 play, 72 yard drive that ended with a Tim Hightower 8 yard TD catch and a two point convert. The drive took nearly eight minutes off the clock, it seemed to have stunned the Eagles and it was game over.

We expected a strong outing from QB Kurt Warner in this one and called for 260 yards with 2 TD’s and 1 turnover. He was even better than that with 279 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Edgerrin James came close to our expected 90 total yards (finishing with 89) but did not get the TD we called for. As expected, much less was asked of RB Tim Hightower in this one. He did however get close to our expected 60 total yards (finishing with 44) and he got the red zone TD we suggested he would. WR Larry Fitzgerald was unstoppable again but we underestimated how good he would be in this one. We expected 120 yards and 1 TD from him and he finished with 152 yards and 3 TD’s. WR Anquan Boldin played as expected but was irrelevant for the most part and he finished with four catches for 34 yards. We told you to temper your expectations for WR Steve Breaston and he was held to one catch for 10 yards. As suggested, the TE position for the Cardinals was a non-factor again this weekend from a Fantasy perspective. Look for the Cards to draft or trade for a stud TE this offseason. Can you imagine a Witten type TE in that offense? Wow!

We expected a modest game out of QB Donovan McNabb at 225 yards with two 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Due to a strong third quarter, he finished better than that with 375 yards, 3 TD’s and just 1 INT. As suggested, RB Brian Westbrook struggled in this game and barely exceeded our call of 60 total yards as he finished with 71 total yards. RB Correll Buckhalter finished way below our expectations with just 33 total yards. With the Eagles falling way behind, they were forced to air it out in the second half. WR’s Kevin Curtis and DeShaun Jackson both had a big game in this one. We missed on both of them. TE Brent Celek exceeded our expected 50 yard, 1 TD day and finished with 83 yards and 2 TD’s.

RAVENS 14 @ STEELERS 23

Confession time: We called this one with our heart rather than our head. We said that QB Joe Flacco would have to play mistake free football for the Ravens to win and that simply did not happen. His 30 pass attempts were the most he had thrown since the Ravens Week 11 loss to the Giants when he attempted 33 passes. Why the Ravens came out and went with seven pass plays to two rushing plays to start the game is anyones guess. Just one of the seven passes was completed (2 yard gain), one was picked off and the other five fell incomplete. The big game pressure got to the Ravens coaching staff in this one. We didn’t expect big numbers from Flacco and he finished with 141 yards and 3 INT’s. RB LeRon McClain was limited by his ankle injury and finished with just one carry for 3 yards. RB Willis McGahee answered the call, as we predicted, and came close to our 80 yards and 1 TD call finishing with 73 yards and 2 TD’s. RB Ray Rice finished five yards better than our call of 40 total yards with 45 total yards. WR Derrick Mason didn’t get the 70 yards and 1 TD we expected and finished with just 41 yards. WR Mark Clayton didn’t get close to our call of a 50 yard game and finished with 18 yards. TE Todd Heap came close to our three catch, 35 yard game as he caught three balls for 26 yards. The Ravens had a shot to win this game as they had the ball and were down by just two points with under five minute to play. In the end, the Ravens coaches and their game plan doomed their season.

Other than their defense there was nothing really impressive about this Steelers win. We expected a 50/50 run/pass attack out of them and they ran 28 times while passing 33 times. They settled for three field goals and missed on several scoring opportunities. QB Ben Roethlisberger had the solid, though not spectacular, game that we expected. His 255 yards exceeded our call of 200 yards. He tossed the 1TD we called for but did not throw an INT. RB Willie Parker did not score and had the mediocre game we forecasted. Parker finished with just 47 rushing yards. Neither RB Mewelede Moore or Gary Russell produced anything meaningful in this one. WR Hines Ward left this game early and fell below our seven catch, 75 yard 1 TD call. He finished with three catches for 55 yards. In Wards absence, WR Santonio Holmes stepped up and produced with 70 yards and 1 TD. WR Nate Washington posted a modest three catches for 21 yards. TE Heath Miller exceeded our call of 35 yards and finished with three catches and 62 yards.

In the end, this game went exactly opposite from what we called for. The Steelers, not the Ravens, won the turnover battle. Turnovers and questionable play calling by the Ravens ultimately decided the game. So it’s a Steelers VRS Cardinals Super Bowl. Early on in Super Bowl week there hasn’t been much excitement for this matchup but we see it as a good one. Let’s take a closer look shall we?

CARDINALS (9-7) VRS STEELERS (12-4)

REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS:

On defense, the Cardinals rank 22nd against the pass and gave up a staggering 36 passing touchdowns which was the most in the league in 2008. They rank 16th in run defense and gave up just 13 rushing touchdowns. The Cards registered 31 sacks and had 13 INT’s. On offense, the Cardinals rank 2nd in passing and scored 31 touchdowns through the air. They were a dismal, dead last, in rushing offense having gained an average of just 73 yards per game while scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Steelers rank 1st against the pass and gave 12 passing touchdowns. They rank 2nd against the run and gave up 10 TD’s on the ground. The Steelers registered 51 sacks and had 20 INT’s. On offense, the Steelers rank 15th in passing and scored 19 touchdowns through the air. They rank 23rd in rushing and scored 16 touchdowns on the ground.

The Steelers opened as a 6.5 point favorite following the Championship games. The number moved to 7 almost immediately and has stayed there ever since. You have probably been bombarded with stats leading up to this game but allow us to add one more to the pile. Teams with a turnover edge are 30-3 in Super Bowl history. Teams with a 0 turnover mark are 9-9. The Cardinals have a +9 turnover edge in their three playoff games while the Steelers have a +5 turnover edge in their two playoff games. Both teams were 10-0 when having a turnover edge this season. In their last meeting, the Cardnials beat the Steelers 21-14 in Arizona during Week 4 of the 2007 season. It was the Steelers first loss of the season after they started 3-0.

For the first time in these playoffs the Cardinals will face a 3-4 defense after three straight weeks against 4-3 defenses. To be successful here the Cardinals should continue to scheme as if they are facing a 4-3 defense. In the 3-4 defense one of the linebackers, cornerbacks or safeties will blitz on almost every play so, unlike a 4-3 defense, the offense never really knows who will come on the blitz. The Cardinals can counter the Steelers 3-4 defense because QB Kurt Warner is so good at seeing what’s coming at him and he has one of the quickest releases in football. They can also counter the 3-4 by forcing the Steelers to respect the run and they must use RB Edgerrin James and RB Tim Hightower effectively. The Cardinals can’t win this game by bombs away alone, they must be able to mix in the run. You can bet that the Cards coaching staff has looked at the Ravens first three series from Championship Sunday and that they won’t make the same mistakes the Ravens made. We see Warner as the more productive QB in this game and we fully expect close to 280 yards and 3 TD’s with 1 INT from him in this one. The Cards won’t be able to dominate with their rushing attack but they should be able to do just enough to keep the Steelers defense honest. That should compute to James and Hightower coming in with 50 and 35 rushing yards respectively. Expect Hightower to add another 25 yards receiving and for him to score one TD. WR Larry Fitzgerald continues to be an unstoppable force and has now racked up 650 yards and 8 TD’s in his last five games. The Steelers will probably want to cover Fitzgerald with Ike Taylor but will also roll some safety coverage his way in this one as well. It won’t matter as Fiztgerald will still get his receptions and we see him finishing with 85 yards and 1 TD. With the Steelers primary focus being on Fitzgerald, WR Aquan Boldin and WR Steve Breaston should both find space in the secondary and they should both be very active in the Cards passing game. Forget about Boldin’s blowup with the Cards OC on Championship Sunday. It was blown out of proportion by the magnitude of the game and media coverage. Boldin will be focused and the Cardinals need his contribution to have success. We see “Q” as the “X” factor in this game and will pencil him in for 105 yards and 2 TD’s. We see Breaston pitching in another 55 receiving yards. In this game, more than in any other game this season, the Cards TE’s will be asked to pass protect, pass protect and then pass protect some more. Anything more than 25 receiving yards from a Cards TE would be a shock.

The Steelers are as vanilla as it gets when it comes to offense. Their mix of run and pass is highly predictable but often difficult to stop. That being said, we just don’t see the Steelers being able to match the Cardinals point production in this one. QB Ben Roethlisberger will be asked to keep up with Warner and we don’t like him in that situation. The term is somewhat over used but, Big Ben is a classic “game manager” QB. The Steelers get in trouble when they ask him to do too much. The Cards will want to bring a heavy pass rush in this one as Big Ben was the most sacked QB in the league when facing the blitz. The numbers are almost staggering as he was sacked once every 6.2 times he faced a blitz while completing just 52.8 percent of his passes in the blitz scenario. By comparison, Warner was sacked once every 29.7 times he faced the blitz and he completed 64.4 percent of his passes in the blitz scenario. We think the Steelers will have to abandon the run at some point in this game and that could be a nightmare scenario for Big Ben. Look for Roethlisberger to come in at around 230 yards passing with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Early on the Steelers will want to pound the ball on the ground with a combination of rushes from RB Willie Parker, RB Mewelede Moore and RB Gary Russell. All three will see touches with Parker leading the way. We do however expect that the Cardinals will build an early lead and that will make the running game less effective for the Steelers. We see the Steelers gaining 110 yards rushing in this one and 1 TD. Parker will lead the way with 60 yards and one score. Moore will add another 35 and Russell will pitch in some third down carries to gain 15 yards. The Steelers will be forced to air in this one and will have to rely on a steady, but not spectacular receiving core when they do. WR Hines Ward is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury but has said he expects to play. In Boldin and Ward, this game features two of the toughest receivers in football and we expect Ward will give it a go. How long he lasts and how effective he will be is anyones guess. The injury is a sprained medial collateral ligament and it often takes weeks to heal. Steelers RB Willie Parker missed four games with the same injury earlier this season. The fact that Ward didn’t play for most of three quarters in the Championship game shows us that it’s not just a minor sprain. We don’t like Wards chances of being very productive based on his injury. At this point, we suggest a modest 45 receiving yards without a score from of Ward. With Ward hobbled, the onus falls on Steelers WR’s Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and Limas Sweed to pick up the slack. Holmes is a burner but he’s also hit or miss on a weekly basis. With his injury, the Cards will be able to use single coverage on Ward and move their top coverage to Holmes. We see Holmes breaking one late and ending up with 65 receiving yards and 1 TD. Look for Washington to contribute another 35 yards and for Sweed to pitch in another 25 yards. With Roethlisberger facing a heavy blitz, TE Heath Miller will be the most active TE in this game. We see Miller tallying seven catches for 50 yards and 1 TD in this one.

Bottom Line: We could play it safe and join the masses in predicting a Steelers win here but we’re not going to. We find it difficult to argue with the way the Cardinals have played on both sides of the ball over their last three games and we don’t see it as being a fluke. We think the Cardinals are healthier, have the more explosive playmakers and have a better balance on offense. On the grandest of stages we also see both defenses taking a back seat to the offenses. We also think that the Cards are hungrier than the Steelers who have been here before.There is no doubt that both teams are hungry for the win but we feel the Cards have a slight edge in that intangible. All those factors add up to a Super Bowl upset win for the Arizona Cardinals.

Stats Score: Cardinals 31 Steelers 27

Stats Super Bowl MVP: Anquan Boldin

Enjoy The Game Everybody!

StatsGuru