Welcome to our Championship Sunday addition of Beasts and Busts. It was Meatloaf who sang “two out of three ain’t bad” so three out of four must be better! That’s how we faired last weekend so let’s do a review of the Backyard Brawls before we get to the two Championship games this week.

RAVENS 13 @ TITANS 10

We started the weekend by calling for the Ravens to knock off the number one seeded Titans and that’s just what they did. We were a little off on the final score but near flawless from a Fantasy aspect. The Titans had a decided edge in most of the statistical categories in this game but the Ravens defense forced three turnovers which was ultimately the deciding factor. All three turnovers ended long Titan drives (13, 10 and 8 plays) and, as we predicted, the Ravens defense was too much for the Titans. We didn’t expect much out of QB Kerry Collins who was limited to 281 passing yards and 1 INT. We expected that the Titans Thunder and Lightening combo of running backs LenDale White and Chris Johnson to have a combined 100 rushing yards and 1 TD in this one. They ended up with 117 yards and 1 TD. WR Justin Gage exceeded our four catch, 45 yard prediction with 10 catches for 135 yards. As predicted, the rest of the Titans WR core was no where to be found in this one. TE Boo Scaife had the four catches we predicted but only managed 23 yards.

The Ravens are one step away from our prediction of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. QB Joe Flacco showed great poise and decision making again this weekend and fell just short of our predicted production of 185 yards and 1 TD. Flacco finished with 161 pass yards and 1 TD. RB LeRon McClain and RB Willis McGahee were held in check by the Titans in this one. McClain fell way short of prediction with just 12 yards on 12 carries as he dealt with an ankle injury. We expected McGahee to have a 55 yard day and he finished with 36 total yards. RB Ray Rice was the non-factor we predicted. WR Derrick Mason came in at 13 yards over our 65 yard and 1 TD prediction. He finished the day with five catches for 78 yards and 1 TD. WR Mark Clayton had 45 yards which was 10 short of our predicted 55 yards. We expected a quiet day from TE Todd Heap. He finished with just one catch for 23 yards but it was a big one late in the game that helped set up the Ravens game winning field goal.

CARDINALS 33 @ PANTHERS 13

The late game on Saturday had the biggest point spread of the week with the Panthers closing as 9.5 point favorites. The Cardinals went into Carolina and ripped the heart out of the Panthers. We missed on the final score on this one big time but, surprisingly, we were still fairly accurate from a Fantasy perspective.

We had Cardinals QB Kurt Warner at 235 yards with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He finished with 220 yards, 2 TD’s and just 1 INT. We suggested the Cardinals would need another strong effort on the ground in this one and they got it. RB Edgerrine James finished with 66 total yards and 1 TD. RB Tim Hightower was better than our expected 45 yards and 1 TD as he finished with 79 yards and 1 TD. WR Larry Fitzgerald had the big game we expected with 166 yards and 1 TD. As suggested, WR Anquan Boldin was inactive for this contest. WR Steve Breaston fell way below our expected 80 yards and 1 TD and finished with just 28 yards.

The Panthers opened the game running the ball as we expected. They took the opening kickoff and drove 50 yards, with 41 of them on the ground, to take a 7-0 lead. The ensuing kickoff was a game changer that no one has talked about. Kicker Rhsy Lloyd lead the league with 30 kickoffs for touchbacks in the regular season but he kicked the ball out of bounds to put the Cardinals at the 40 yard line. Momentum took an immediate shift and that was the beginning of the end for the Panthers. We expected a modest game from QB Jake Delhomme but who could have predicted five INT’s and a fumble lost from him? Delhomme finished with 205 yards and 1 TD (we called for 200 yards and 2 TD’s) to go along with the turnovers and he has probably thrown his last pass for the Panthers. With the Panthers falling behind 27-7 they were forced to abandon the running game. That made both RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart total busts. WR Steve Smith came in well below our call of 117 yards and 1 TD as he finished with 43 yards and 1 TD. WR Muhsin Muhammad was five yards better than our call of 50 yards but didn’t get the TD we called for. As suggested, neither TE Jeff King or TE Dante Rosario were a factor in this game.

EAGLES 23 @ GIANTS 11

The Eagles made us two for two on predicted upsets on the weekend as their defense smothered the Giants. For the second time this year, we had a game that finished with a score that was a first time ever final score in NFL history. The Steelers V Chargers 11-10 score in Week 11 was the other one. We expected a very mediocre game from QB Eli Manning and that’s exactly what we got. Our call was Manning throwing for under 200 yards without a TD and a couple of INT’s. He finished with 169 yards, no TD’s and 2 INT’s. Like Brother Peyton, Eli will have to be happy with his one Super Bowl win career as we don’t see him ever winning another one. We warned that the Eagles run defense would be huge in this one and they were. We expected that RB Brandon Jacobs would be limited to 80 yards with 1 TD and he finished with 92 yards but did not score. RB Derrick Ward finished a slight notch above our modest 60 total yards prediction with 72 total yards. We didn’t see much production coming out of the WR position for the Giants and they were even worse that what we forecasted. TE Kevin Boss finished with 52 yards which is two yards better than the 50 we predicted from him in this one.

The Eagles continue to accomplish the improbable and defensively have been very impressive in doing so. We are however concerned about their offense moving forward. QB Donovan McNabb finished somewhat worse than our call of 250 yards and 2 TD’s with 217 yards and 2 TD’s. He did however toss 2 INT’s and that hurt his bottom line Fantasy wise. RB Brian Westbrook didn’t come close to our forecasted 120 total yards and two scores in this one as he finished with just 46 total yards. The Eagles receiving core produced as we expected in this one. WR DeShaun Jackson lead the way with 81 yards and WR Kevin Curtis finished with 40 yards. TE Brent Celek didn’t get the 40 yards we expected but he did get the TD we called for and finished with three catches for 12 yards.

CHARGERS 24 @ STEELERS 35

The Chargers put up a decent fight in this one but, the end result was the loss that we predicted. The final score in this one was much higher than we thought it would be. That being said, after the Chargers scored on their opening possession, the Steelers took control of the game and never looked back.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers was much better than our call 220 yards and 1 TD in this game. He finished with 308 yards 3 TD’s and 1 INT. However, the majority of that production came in the fourth quarter with the Steelers playing prevent defense. As expected, RB LT2 did not play in this game which ended a disappointing season for the reigning King of Fantasy. The Steelers held RB Darren Sproles in check for most of the game but a 62 yard catch and run TD late in the fourth quarter boosted his overall bottom line. Sproles finished with 106 total yards and 1 TD. We had WR Vincent Jackson penciled in for 60 yards and he finished with 49 yards and 1 TD. We expected 50 yards from WR Chris Chambers and he finished with 72 yards. We had TE Antonio Gates coming in with six catches and 55 yards with 1 TD and he finished with five catches for 59 yards but did not score.

Our forecasted production out of the Steelers offense could not have been much better. QB Ben Roethlisberger finished slightly below our call of 230 yards and 1 TD with 181 yards and 1 TD. RB Willie Parker was even better than our suggested 100 yards and 1 TD as he finished with 146 yards and 2 TD’s RB Mewelde Moore came in slightly lower than the 45 total yards we predicted with just 25 total yards. RB Gary Russell had the limited touches we forecasted and he also got the goal line TD that we called for. WR Hines Ward had exactly 70 yards receiving, as we predicted, but didn’t get into the end zone. WR Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington both came in at close to the 40 yards we called for with 25 and 30 yards respectively. TE Heath Miller finished with 37 yards and 1 TD.

That’s a wrap of Backyard Brawl Weekend which was an outstanding weekend for us at FootballStatsGuru. Let’s keep it rolling as we look at the two games on Championship Sunday.

EAGLES (9-6-1) @ CARDINALS (9-7)

This most improbable of match ups must have the staff at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale scrambling to get the facility ready to host the NFC Championship game. After the Fiesta Bowl was played on January 6, 2009 we don’t think anyone expected another football game at this venue for several more months. So many things had to break just right for this game, at this venue, to happen that Cardinal fans are enjoying Christmas in January. That stadium will be absolutely crazy this weekend! This is a rematch of the Thanksgiving Day Massacre in Philadelphia back in Week 13 when the Eagles won 48-20. That was the start of the Eagles improbable playoff run but we wouldn’t read too much into that result when analyzing this rematch. We’re not sure how much pay back will play into this game, but it certainly could. The Eagles ran up the score in their first meeting with 14 fourth quarter points that included a passing TD with 5:24 left in the game when the Eagles were already up 41-20. There is certainly much more at stake here than revenge but teams don’t easily forget being embarrassed.

REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS:

On defense, the Cardinals rank 22nd against the pass and gave up a staggering 36 passing touchdowns which was the most in the league in 2008. They rank 16th in run defense and gave up just 13 rushing touchdowns. The Cards registered 31 sacks and had 13 INT’s. On offense, the Cardinals rank 2nd in passing and scored 31 touchdowns through the air. They were a dismal, dead last, in rushing offense having gained an average of just 73 yards per game while scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground.

On defense, the Eagles rank 3rd against the pass and gave up 19 passing touchdowns. They rank 4th in run defense and gave up just seven rushing touchdowns. The Eagles registered 48 sacks and had 19 INT’s. On offense, the Eagles rank 6th in passing and scored 23 touchdowns through the air. They rank 22nd in rushing and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground.

Of the four remaining teams, the Cardinals have shown us the most balance on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Cards have averaged 358 yards in their two playoff games. Their play calling has been outstanding as they have mixed 64 passing plays with 71 rushing attempts and they have controlled the clock with a 34:56 time of possession average. That’s amazing for a team that is thought of as just a passing team. They are also a +7 in turnovers through two games. On defense they have five sacks and seven interceptions and they have allowed just 259 yards per game through two games. Two of the best rushing offenses in the league, the Falcons and Panthers, have been held to an average of 67.5 yards per game by the Cardinals run defense.

Cardinals QB Kurt Warner has been very good through two games with 491 passing yards, 4 TD’s with just 2 INT’s and a 93.9 passer rating. He will need to be extra sharp this weekend against the Eagles blitzing defense. Back in Week 13 the Eagles forced Warner to throw three INT’s with two of them coming on the Cardinals first two possessions. At home and with weather being a non-factor in this game, we see a much better outing from Warner in this one. Expect 260 yards with 2 TD’s and 1 turnover out of Warner this time around. RB Edgerrin James has been reborn over the last three weeks and is one of the most rested players in this game. He is running with purpose and looks similar to the Edge of old. The Cardinals will have to make the Eagles respect the run to limit the amount of blitzes Warner will face. James should see close to 25 touches in this game and we expect 90 total yards and 1 TD from him in this one. RB Tim Hightower had 17 carries last week against the Panthers and that was his second highest total after the 22 carries he had against the Rams back in Week 9. Amazingly, 12 of those touches came on consecutive carries during the Cardinals final drive in the fourth quarter. The rookie probably won’t see that many carries here but we expect 60 total yards and a goal line TD from him in this one. WR Larry Fitzgerald has four straight games with over 100 yards and he has 5 TD’s during that stretch. Despite seeing double coverage for most of the game last weekend he still managed to catch eight passes for 166 yards and 1 TD. Had the game not been so far out of reach, his numbers would have been even higher than they were. Fitzgerald didn’t have a catch after the 7:52 mark of the third quarter. This Fantasy Stud is simply unstoppable and we expect 120 yards and 1 TD from him this weekend. WR Aquan Boldin was held out of last weeks game with a hamstring injury and his status is unclear for this weekend. Boldin participated in practice on Wednesday and expects to start on Sunday. Being as he is one of the toughest players in football, we believe him. How long he can go and how productive he will be is anyones guess. If he can manage to play the entire game we see his production at about 75 yards and 1 TD. WR Steve Breaston will see limited looks underneath coverage with Boldin back in the fold and you should temper your expectations to 45 yards for him in this one. The TE position for the Cardinals did not record a single catch last weekend and should be ignored from a Fantasy perspective.

The Eagles have gone from being happy to be a part of the post season to thinking that they can win it all now. Whether by design or because of injury, the Eagles have shown a little less balance on offense through their last two games. They have had 74 pass attempts to just 51 rushing attempts. We expect more of the same from them this weekend. While the Eagles have been dominant on defense, we don’t like what we have seen from them on offense. QB Donovan McNabb has averaged 258 yards per game but has thrown just 2 TD’s to go along with 3 INT’s and a 74.0 passer rating. Against the Cardinals suddenly ball hawking secondary he will need a much better game if the Eagles are to advance. We are expecting a modest game from McNabb in this one and we will pencil him in for 225 yards with two 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. After the game against the Giants, RB Brian Westbrook told the media that he re-injured his knee and he is currently listed as questionable for Sundays game. Westbrook had a huge 4 TD game against the Cards back in Week 13 but we don’t expect a repeat performance from him in this one. When we have doubted Westbrook in the past, he seems to go off and have his best games. He has however been very ineffective averaging barely 45 rushing yards a game over his last five games. He is clearly not healthy and should not be trusted in this game. We will be surprised to see him gain anything over 60 total yards in this one. With Westbrook hobbled, the Eagles will be forced to use RB Correll Buckhalter more in this one. Buckhalter is dealing with a slight knee injury of his own so his effectiveness is questionable as well. He will get his fair share of touches though so we see a 75 total yard 1 TD day from him in this one. With the Eagles backfield hurting, their receiving core will be asked to step it up in this one. We just don’t see that happening. WR’s Kevin Curtis, DeShaun Jackson, Jason Avant, Reggie Brown and Hank Basket have all seen looks from McNabb in the playoffs but none have put up any substantial numbers. Curtis should score and post 50 yards in this one while Jackson should come in with about 65 receiving yards, The rest of them should not be trusted this weekend. In fact, we suggest that you should just avoid the Eagles WR situation all together this weekend. TE Brent Celek is a good starting option at TE for the Eagles and we expect a 50 yard 1 TD day from him in this one.

Bottom Line: The Cardinals balance on offense, a suddenly potent defense, home field advantage and injuries for the Eagles will all be key factors in this game. Revenge will be sweet for the Cardinals and a late INT toss by McNabb will help them advance to the Super Bowl. Cardinal Fans, as the late great Jack Buck once said, “Go crazy folks! Go crazy!”

Stats Score: Cardinals 31 Eagles 24

RAVENS (11-5) @ STEELERS (12-4)

It doesn’t get much more epic than this battle of AFC North beasts. It’s like Bird against Magic, Gibson against Lolich or Gretzky against Lemieux. It won’t be pretty, as these two defensive heavyweights will slug it out for a full 60 minutes on Sunday afternoon. Whoever delivers the knock out punch will also punch their ticket to Tampa for Super Bowl XLIII. These teams met twice in the regular season and the Steelers won both games. In Week 4 the Steelers needed a 46 yard field goal to win in OT. In Week 15 the Steelers put together a 12 play, 92 yard drive to win in the closing minutes on a controversial TD catch by WR Santonio Holmes. We expect this one to be very close as well.

REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS:

On defense, the Ravens were stellar on both sides of the ball. They rank 3rd in run defense and gave up a league low four rushing touchdowns. They rank 2nd against the pass and gave up 17 passing touchdowns. The Ravens registered 34 sacks and lead the league with 26 INT’s. On offense, the Ravens rank 28th in passing and scored 16 touchdowns through the air. They rank 4th in rushing and scored 20 TD’s on the ground.

On defense, the Steelers rank 1st against the pass and gave 12 passing touchdowns. They rank 2nd against the run and gave up 10 TD’s on the ground. The Steelers registered 51 sacks and had 20 INT’s. On offense, the Steelers rank 15th in passing and scored 19 touchdowns through the air. They rank 23rd in rushing and scored 16 touchdowns on the ground.

We expect the Ravens will continue to keep it simple for rookie QB Joe Flacco. Why shouldn’t they? They have won seven of their last eight games with smash mouth, on the ground football. They take a few shots downfield through the air and then rely heavily on their amazing defense. Don’t expect big numbers from Flacco in this one as 180 yards and 1 TD with another 25 rushing yards should be about right. If the unflappable Flacco can stay away from turnovers, the Ravens will win this game. RB LeRon McClain turned his ankle and was very ineffective last weekend against the Titans. He is listed as questionable for this game. Even if he was 100% healthy he would be hard pressed to have a monster game here against the stout Steelers defense. The injury will limit his production and we expect a modest 55 total yard game from him in this one. That means the relatively forgotten man from the Ravens will have to step up and produce. RB Willis McGahee should see a sharp increase in touches for the Ravens this weekend. We think he will answer the call and total close to 80 yards and 1 TD. With McClain at less than 100% Ravens RB Ray Rice should also see some touches in this one but anything over 40 total yards would be a bonus. WR Derrick Mason is also a wounded bird but he has been playing through pain all season. Expect him to start again this weekend and produce his standard 70 yards and catch the lone Flacco TD pass. Like Mason, WR Mark Clayton is also playing through injury but he to will start in this one. Clayton puts up fairly standard numbers on a weekly basis so expect another 50 yard game from him against the Steelers. TE Todd Heap will be asked to block even more than usual in this game and should not be trusted as your starting TE. A three catch, 35 yard game seems about right for Heap in this one.

The Steelers will come in with 50/50 run/pass attack in this one. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been here before and we expect a solid, though not spectacular, game out of him in this one. Expect Big Ben to post 200 yards and 1 TD with 1 INT this weekend. RB Willie Parker went off last weekend against a decent Chargers run defense. He will find much tougher sledding in this one though. Parker did not play back in Week 4 and was held to 47 yards against the Ravens in week 15. Expect Fast Willie to post about 75 total yards without a score in this one. RB Mewelede Moore and Gary Russell will both see limited touches for the Steelers in this one. Moore will total 45 yards while Russell will pitch in another 35 yards and he will steal a goal line TD. WR Hines Ward had 164 receiving yards in the two regular season games against the Ravens. He rarely puts up huge numbers but he always shows up in big games. We see expect a seven catch, 75 yard 1 TD game from Ward this weekend. WR Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington both face a difficult challenge against the talented Ravens secondary. Of the two, Holmes is the better option because he is also used to return kicks which gives him more opportunities to score. Expect somewhere in the range of 40 receiving yards from both of them here. Like Todd Heap for the Ravens, TE Heath Miller will be asked to do more blocking than catching for the Steelers in this game. Expect a modest 35 yards from Miller in this one.

Bottom Line: We expect a late field goal will win this game after these two pound on each other all game in a defensive battle. The Steelers will be more aggressive and take more shots downfield than the Ravens will in this game. In the end, that will not be a good thing for the Steelers as the Ravens will win the turnover battle. We have said all along that the Ravens are this years version of last years Giants team. Being as such, we are going to call for a Matt Stover 35 yard field goal to win the game and propel the Ravens to Super Bowl XLIII against the upstart Cardinals.

Stats Score: Ravens 17 Steelers 14

There you have it folks! It’s going to be a Dog Day Afternoon on Championship Sunday. We’ll be back next week to preview Super Bowl XLIII but right now, we are posting the Ravens as early 3 point favorites in the Battle of the Birds in Super Bowl XLIII.

Enjoy The Games Everybody!

StatsGuru