Vegas Fantasy Football Picks

San Diego Chargers 08-09 Forecast

July 29th, 2008 · No Comments

The San Diego Chargers have been an extremely Fantasy relevant team since the 2001 season. It’s not surprising that as their Fantasy relevance rises so does their won lost record. Since 2004 the Chargers have a 46-14 record. If the Chargers finish at 11-5 in ‘08 they will raise their overall record to a game over .500% (365-364). You know there are good things happening in San Diego, so lets have a closer look at these Lightening Bolts!

Coaching: Norv Turner enters his second season as the Chargers Head Coach. Know as a brilliant offensive mind, Turner was brought in after Marty Schottenheimer was fired following the 2006 season. In his first year Turner lead the Chargers to an 11-5 record and playoff wins against the Titans and Colts before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Clarence Shelmon was promoted to Offensive Coordinator at the start of the ‘07 season after serving as the RB Coach for the previous six years. Shelmon has been the RB Coach for Chris Warren (Seattle 1992-95), Emmitt Smith (1998-2001) and has been instrumental in the development of LaDainian Tomlinson. A total of 12 backs that Shelmon has coached have made it to the Pro Bowl. On the same day he was hired as the Head Coach, Turner lured Ted Cottrell out of coaching retirement and named him as the Chargers Defensive Coordinator. Cottrell is best know as the former DC of the Buffalo Bills. During his time with the Bills Cottrell was part of three AFC East titles.

Stats Slant: This is a very solid group of Coaches.

Quarterback: Philips Rivers enters his fifth season with the Chargers and his third as the undisputed starting QB. The entire Chargers team had a very up and down season last year and Rivers was certainly a part of that. After a breakout season in ‘06 (3388 PYD 22 TD 9 INT) Rivers slipped back some in ‘07 (3152 PYD 21 TD 15 INT 6 Fumbles lost). Rivers showed a lot of guts and determination when he played in the AFC Championship game with what was later determined to be a fully torn ACL. Rivers rehab has been said to be quicker than most and he will be able to go full out at training camp. He will wear a brace on his knee for the entire regular season so his mobility will certainly be hampered somewhat. In ‘08 the Chargers play a staggering 12 games against teams that finished in the top ten against the past during the ‘07 season. Former Titans QB Billy Volek will be the back up to Rivers for the second consecutive year.

Stats Slant: Wow! The Bolts certainly didn’t get any favors from the schedule maker. This is bad news for Rivers and keeps him out of our top twelve QB rankings. Select him as a high-end #2 QB and slot him into your lineup when the match-up is favorable.

Running Back: Finally!! After previewing 25 other teams we now get to announce the first, overall selection for Fantasy ‘08. All World RB LaDainian Tomlinson is the perfect Fantasy specimen. LT2 has started every game of his career dating back to 2001 (111 GS) except the meaningless final versus KC in ‘04. His career numbers and averages are not only staggering but brilliant as well. He has averaged 21.3 carriers, 4.5 rush yards per attempt, 95.9 rush yards per game and 16.4 TD in his first seven seasons. Don’t forget about his receiving prowess as well. In seven seasons LT2 has caught 458 passes for 3,375 yards and 14 TD. He also has the ability to throw passes. After not throwing a pass in his first two seasons, LT2 now has 11 attempts 8 completions and 7 TD for his career. He’s had 2,823 touches in his career and has lost an amazingly low 10 fumbles. Some called him soft for his effort against the Patriots in the ‘07 AFC Championship game but he was visibly not healthy with a sprained MCL in his knee. He came out during the second series of the game and did not return. It was a coaches and doctors decision to pull LT2 out of the game not Tomlinson’s. He didn’t need any off-season surgery and is said to have rehabbed 100%. Like previous years, LT2 will not see any preseason action in ‘08. There may be some peasants pounding on the door but the castle is still secure and LT2 remains atop the throne as the King of Fantasy Football. The Chargers lost Michael Turner to Atlanta and Lorenzo Neal to retirement. Darren Sproles plus rookies Jacob Hester and Marcus Thomas will battle in camp to be the back up. Sproles is a dangerous return man and should be more motivated as he’s a restricted free agent at seasons end. Both rookies signed four-year contract deals in the off-season. At this point there isn’t an obvious handcuff for LT2 but the Chargers don’t need or use a backup RB until games are blowouts.

Stats Slant: There is no better feeling in Fantasy Football than knowing that you are the proud owner of a stud like LT2. The Bolts have the worst pass defense schedule but the sixth best rush defense schedule in ‘08. Games against the likes of ATL BUF, CLE, DEN (2), KC (2), MIA, NYJ and OAK (2) set LT up for another monster season. In case you need another reason to draft LT2 first overall consider that they play H ATL H OAK V KC weeks 13 through 15. Don’t try to get cute with the first overall pick in your draft. Select LT2 and become an instant favorite to win your Championship!

Wide Receiver: Vincent Jackson (41 C 623 PYD 3 TD) and Chris Chambers (66 C 970 PYD 4 TD) will be the starting WR’s when the Chargers open the ‘08 season. Jackson was a disappointment for Fantasy owners, as his “Magical Third Season” did not materialize. He was good down the stretch and in the playoffs though and that should continue as the Bolts enter their second season with Turner at the helm. Chambers was acquired by the Chargers at the ‘07 trade deadline and started their last nine games and all three playoff games. Turner was the OC for Chambers in Miami for two seasons. Craig Davis, Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee will battle in camp for the 3# WR role. Naanee was impressive during OTAs and should pass Davis and win the battle.

Stats Slant: When a team has studs like RB LT2 and TE Antonio Gates, the WR’s are used primarily as possession receivers and are asked to block downfield. Having a full off-season as a Charger under his belt and not facing the double teams he faced in Miami should help Chambers in his second year with the Bolts. Rank him as low-end #2 WR and Jackson as high-end #3 with upside and an outstanding bye replacement.

Tight End: Antonio Gates burst onto the Fantasy scene in 2004 when he posted 81 C 964 PYD and 13 TD. In the last four years he has averaged ten TD and almost 80 catches per season. Gates suffered through back pains late in the season and let down his owners during the Fantasy playoff weeks. From Week 13 through 16, Gates had just 9 C 88 PYD 1 TD. That had to hurt! Gates dislocated his left big toe in the first round playoff game versus the Titans. He played through the pain but was visibly not even close to 100% versus the Colts and even less against the Patriots. Surgery on Gates toe was successful in the off-season but could limit the former back to back to back #1 Fantasy TE stud come September.

Training Camp Update: Gates is at the Chargers training camp and worked out with a separate group of coaches than the rest of the team. Gates was then placed on the Active-PUP list, a move that was expected. Being on the A-PUP list gives players a chance to get healthy. Once they are declared fit and pass a physical, they simply come off the list and join the team.

Stats Slant: This will be the first year out of four that Gates won’t go as the #1 TE across all leagues. He is a risk/reward selection with the injured toe and wonky back but should still be viewed as a top five starting TE. Watch for the TE run but Gates should still be on the board as the fifth round begins. If he isn’t, chalk it up to knowing someone paid too much for him and move on to someone like Dallas Clark or Chris Cooley.

Place Kicker: Nate Kaeding is in a very good spot as the PK for the high powered Chargers. He is pretty much as dependable as they get and will always get his chances (24 of 27 FG 46 of 46 XP).

Stats Slant: Consider Kaeding as a low-end #1 PK.

Defense/Special Teams: The arrival of Defensive Coordinator Ted Cottrell signaled the beginning of renewed pride on the Defensive side of the ball in San Diego. Having stars like Shawne Merriman, Antonio Cromartie, Shaun Phillips and Quentin Jammer certainly helps. Throw in speedy return man Darren Sproles and it is easy to see why the Bolts DF/ST scored 8 TD had 30 INT and recorded 43 Sacks in ‘07.

Stats Slant: The Charges DF/ST should be the second unit chosen after the Vikings. High scoring shootout games in the AFC West is the only reason they are not #1 overall. If it’s time to take a DF/ST and the Bolts are on the board, take them and enjoy the weekly results.

Red Flag: The Chargers are another team who are dealing with several injuries to key players. You also have to pay some attention to the schedule. As we said earlier, the Chargers play a staggering 12 games against teams that finished in the top ten against the pass during the ‘07 season.

Keep a pre-season eye on: The back up RB/FB position and see if anyone will be able to step up and help open some holes for LT2. The health of Gates. If he comes off the A-PUP list prior to August 30th he will be eligible to play in Week One but he will have to pass a physical to get off the list. If he remains on the A-PUP list after 30/8 he will be ineligible until Week 7 at the earliest.

Stats Sleeper: We think that Legedu Naanee will take the #3 WR spot from the rest of the field. At 6′ 2″ and 225 and a guy who runs a 4.41 forty, Naanee has a great size and speed. Virtually every Charger WR has some sleeper value on based on their schedule.

Last word: The Chargers and the Saints will hook up at Wembley Stadium in London on October 26th in a Week 8 game that should be one of the highest scoring games of the year. The Saints lose a home game by having to travel across the pond. This was a team that was without LT2 and had Rivers and Gates at about 30% and they still managed to score 4 times against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. All four scores were field goals but they did move chains. One has to imagine that a lot of Chargers will be playing in ‘08 with a huge chip on their shoulder and that woulda, coulda, shoulda feeling in their bellies. Hopefully they won’t wrap up the AFC West too early on.

Up Next: San Francisco 49ers On Deck: Seattle Seahawks In The Hole: St. Louis Rams

StatsGuru

Tags: 2008-2009 NFL Pre-Season Forecasts

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