Vegas Fantasy Football Picks

Philadelphia Eagles 08-09 Forecast

July 25th, 2008 · No Comments

In four of the past six seasons the Eagles have ranked in the top ten in total offense. That includes a #6 rank in 2007 and a #2 rank in 2006. Fantasy success always comes from teams who can move the ball and put points on the board. Let’s have a look at what you can expect out of the Eagles in 2008.

Coaching: Andy Reid starts his tenth season as the Head Coach of the Eagles. He is also the Executive VP in charge of Football Operations. Reid took over an Eagles team that went 3-13 in 1998 and has posted an 88-56 record during his tenure. Reid has faced a lot of ups and downs in his ten years with the Eagles and always keeps the ship headed in the right direction. Marty Mornhinweg enters his sixth season with the Eagles and his third as the Offensive Coordinator. Mornhinweg is widely recognized as a brilliant offensive mind. Twice in his career he has been the OC of teams that set franchise records with over 6,000 total net yards of offense (Eagles ‘06 6,103 49ers ‘98 6,800). The first move Reid made when he took over the Eagles was to hire Jim Johnson as the teams Defensive Coordinator. Since 2000 the Johnson lead Eagles D are tied for the most sacks in the league with 342 and have had 24 Pro Bowl selections.

Stats Slant: This is one of the most experienced and talented coaching crews in the entire league. The Eagles have had their share of injuries over the past eight years and they went through the T.O. fiasco. Through it all Reid and company have managed to keep it together and remain a force in the NFL.

Quarterback: Andy Reid and the Eagles selected Donovan McNabb with the second overall selection in the 1999 NFL Draft. In 2008, provided he can stay healthy, McNabb will overtake Ron Jaworski as the Eagles all-time leader in pass attempts (needs 186) pass yards (needs 1,559) and total pass TD’s (needs 4). He’s already their all-time completions leader with 2,189. “If he can stay healthy” are the operative words because injures have plagued McNabb throughout his career. He has only played all 16 games once in his nine NFL seasons (2003). 2007 was no different as McNabb missed Weeks 12 and 13 (both Eagle losses) with ankle and thumb injuries. Missing just two games was actually a pleasant surprise and fortunate. McNabb was under siege all season and had to survive the 12-sack game in Week 4 against the Giants. Overall he was sacked an alarming 44 times in 14 games. In ‘07, for only the second time in his career (first since his rookie season), McNabb did not score a rushing TD. Despite it all, McNabb had a serviceable season in 2007 (3,324 PYD 19 PTD 7 INT 236 RYD). Don’t forget to grab QB Kevin Kolb to back up McNabb if you have the roster space.

Stats Slant: McNabb is the classic risk/reward QB. Draft him and you risk injury. If he remains healthy you get rewarded with good numbers and a guy who you can plug in and leave in. You can argue the numbers as McNabb has 171 PTD 24 RTD and just 79 INT in his nine seasons. McNabb experienced some shoulder tendonitis in the off-season but looked very good during mini camp. He is still a top ten Fantasy QB who will go off the board during the second run on QB’s.

Running Back: All World RB Brian Westbrook is not a happy camper and another player who is trying to rework an existing contract. He is scheduled to make $4.5 Million in ‘08 but is said to be looking for a totally new deal that would pay him $30 Million over the first three years. Eagle veteran’s reported to camp on 24/7/08 and Westbrook did show up. Contract complications aside, Westbrook is still one of the most valuable starting RB’s in the league. The numbers speak for themselves as Westbrook had outstanding numbers again in ‘07 (1,333 RYD 7 RTD 90 C 771 PYD 5 TD). Over the past two seasons Westbrook has had more carries, rush yards and rushing touchdowns than he did in his first four seasons combined. Anyone concerned about him being overworked needs to consider that he has only been a workhorse for the past two years. Prior to that his career high rushing attempts was just 177 in ‘04. Like McNabb, Westbrook has some sort of injury every year and has yet to play a full season in his career. The Eagles traded a fourth-round draft choice (115 OA) to the Dolphins to acquire RB Lorenzo Booker. They see Booker as a mirror image of Westbrook and figure they won’t skip a beat when Booker comes into games. Correll Buckhalter will need a very strong camp to retain his back up role but we don’t see it happening.

Stats Slant: Westbrook is going to be a distraction at training camp, but after T.O., the Eagles have been there, done that. Recent talk has this contract thing dragging out now that Westbrook has hired agent Todd France who guaranteed him a certain, undisclosed amount. Regardless, Westbrook is a top five RB who will go off the board in the first round of all drafts.

Wide Receiver: Digging into the stats of the Eagle WR cores from the past, you have to respect the impressive career numbers that McNabb has posted even more. Since coming into the league McNabb has had two WR reach the 1,000-yard receiving mark (Curtis ‘07 and Owens ‘04). He has never had a receiver catch more than 77 passes (Owens ‘04). Kevin Curtis came over from the Rams and made an immediate impact with the Eagles (77 C 1,110 RYD 6 TD) Fantasy wise those are decent numbers but you have to remember that 221 PYD and 3 TD were recorded in Week 3 at home against the Lions. He also recorded 100+ PYD games and a TD in Weeks 6 and 13. Over half of his total PYD and all of his TD’s came in 4 weeks. He basically disappeared in all other games except Week 16 (78 PYD 1 TD). Reggie Brown should start opposite Curtis. Brown bucked the “3rd Year Receiver” trend and failed to live up to the hype that surrounded him on Draft Day. After posting encouraging numbers in ‘06 (46 C 816 PYD 8 TD) Brown was a bust in ‘07 (61 C 780 PYD 4 TD). No one has been able to explain why his numbers were so poor but maybe his breakout season is a year late. Hank Baskett and Jason Avant will battle to be the #3 WR. Neither of them offers much in the way of Fantasy value. Speedy but undersized rookie DeShean Jackson (RD 2 45th OA) should spend most of his of his first season on special teams.

Stats Slant: Curtis was extremely spotty and Brown was just disappointing. A lot of Fantasy owners will drop Brown down and move Curtis but Brown should be considered the first option at WR for the Eagles. Both Brown and Curtis should be drafted as #3 WR’s.

Tight End: L. J. Smith was another wounded bird that spent a lot of time in the trainer’s room in ‘07. He came into the season, his fifth with Eagles, with high expectations but a hamstring injury kept him out of 6 games. He played two games, then missed two, played one, then missed one two, played 6 and then shut it down for the final three games of the season. The Eagles signed Smith to a one-year contract extension for the ‘08 season (04/2/08) and he will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Stats Slant: Health is the biggest concern when considering Smith. When healthy he is one of McNabb’s favorite targets. He did participate in all of the Eagles off-season workouts and appears to be 100% healthy. Consider Smith as a high-end #2 TE in most drafts.

Place Kicker: David Akers enters his tenth season as the Eagles undisputed starting PK. Akers was a #1 Fantasy option early in his career but age is starting to catch up to him. By his standards, Akers ‘07 season was disappointing (24 of 32 FG and 36 of 36 XP).

Stats Slant: Akers days as a #1 PK are all but over. Leave him on the board on Draft Day and consider him as a top bye week replacement off the waiver wire.

Defense/Special Teams: Under Jim Johnson the Eagles have always had an attack style defense that nets them a lot of sacks (36 for 11th in ‘07). They added CB Asante Samuel as a free agent from New England during the off-season. Samuel joins Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown giving the Eagles a very solid cornerback trio. This should help the Eagles improve on their zero DF/ST ‘07 TD total. It obviously can’t get any worse.

Stats Slant: Given their disappointing ‘07 totals, the Eagles DF/ST should drop down on most lists. The addition of Jackson gives this unit some sleeper value. Consider them as a #2 DF/ST and an excellent bye week replacement if the match up is favorable.

Red Flag: A disgruntled Westbrook is a glaring red flag in Philadelphia. We can’t see it dragging out very long and he is in camp, but monitor this situation as Westbrook is a top five overall pick. Health is always a concern when it comes to virtually every Eagle player.

Keep a pre-season eye on: Westbrook and his contract negotiations.

Stats Sleeper: Rookie DeSean Jackson may be given a shot as a third receiver. Brown could finally bust out and Smith will be undervalued at TE. If Westbrook leaves camp or is a hold out, Booker will see his value skyrocket.

Last Word: The Eagles should fire their entire training staff and bring in people who can keep this group healthy. Because of the injury concerns, if you are trying to decide between players of equal value, take the player that isn’t an Eagle.

Up Next: Pittsburgh Steelers On Deck: San Diego Chargers In The Hole: San Francisco 49ers

StatsGuru

Tags: 2008-2009 NFL Pre-Season Forecasts

0 responses so far ↓

  • There are no comments yet...Kick things off by filling out the form below.

Leave a Comment