Pondering Preseason: Sleepers Exposed

We understand the value of the preseason to the NFL Teams, so there’s no need for anyone to go there. We do find it hard to believe that fans actually forked over $95 to see a Chargers preseason game. That’s a topic for another day though.

Preseason is bad for hardcore Fantasy Freaks. It’s bad because it exposes a lot of Sleepers to the “Ya I can just watch preseason games, check the box scores and pick up a Fantasy Magazine on my way to my Draft” crowd. That’s how they prepare for their draft and that’s how they get their information.

While it’s true they don’t win a lot, they can end up stealing bits and pieces you wanted to use to build your own Fantasy machine because of preseason games.

Let’s take a look at what preseason unearthed this weekend.

Chris Baker  -  TE Patriots

Wow! Is this guy finally going to be Chris Baker “The TD Maker”? The Patriots have talked openly about wanting to get the TE position more involved in their game plan for years. We all know how BB loves to pull players off the scrap heap, shine them up and set them loose. That includes Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Sammy Morris to name a few. Prior to Thursday Baker didn’t even have a mock average draft position (ADP). He will be soon!

Stats Slant: With so many weapons, after Brady, Moss and Welker, it’s tough to tell just who will shine on any given Sunday for the Patriots. At just 6’ 3” but a bulky 258 Baker has WR height with a TE body. We will add him to our TE list but for now see him as a serviceable mid range TE2 with tons of upside in the New England offence. The NFL TE pool is deeper than it ever has been heading into 2009.

Brent Celek  - TE Eagles

It’s kind of good news – bad news for Celek. He definitely arrived in the last couple of regular season and playoff games for the Eagles but he was hovering around the 161 ADP mark prior to Thursday. He showed he is still on the same page with McNabb with two catches for 30 yards before leaving the game with a mild shoulder separation sprain. It’s bad news the whole word was reminded of how good he is. It’s good news that the sprain is a very low grade and he will be fine.

Stats Slant: We hope Celek doesn’t play in any more preseason games. The injury will scare off the faint of heart and leave him down there as a value pick in round 12 or so. Celek is knocking on the door and is on his way to being a low end TE1 in 2009.

Kevin Smith  -  RB Lions

Smith had a great finish to 2008 and was sporting a nice 34 ADP to begin with but did the Lions have to show all their cards on their first drive? To be fair, the Lions weren’t playing with a full deck with the Johnson boys and Brandon Pettigew out. That left Smith as the only “big name” weapon on the field for the Lions. The Falcons VRS Lions game was the only afternoon game on Saturday so it was in fact a prime time game. Hopefully everyone was watching the PGA Championship.

Stats Slant: Smith will be a dual threat run and catching in 2009. The Lions have a brutal first six weeks and then their bye week. Smith could struggle a bit early on but he will be Fantasy Gold the rest of the way. Draft him as a high end RB2.

Ray Rice  - RB Ravens

Rice suffered a leg injury as a rookie last season and had a 105 ADP back in mid July. His latest ADP is 66 and that will climb a little higher after he gained 60 TYD on seven touches. He looked explosive in doing so with the added lower body and leg muscle he gained during the off-season.

Stats Slant: Willis McGahee simply can’t take the everyday pounding anymore and Le’Ron McClain is moving back to the FB position for the Ravens. That leaves Rice as the main man and a dual threat in Baltimore. You won’t draft him as your RB1 but you may want to consider him as a low end RB2. Don’t expect to get him any lower than a very high end RB3.

Donald Brown  - RB Colts

The Colts drafted Brown in the first round (27 OA) in 2009 NFL Draft. This kid has amazing speed, vision and is a strong runner between the tackles. That’s a perfect fit in the Colts offence. Brown showed his speed and overall ability, as he was the best player on field in the Colts preseason game against the Vikings. Brown had 58 yards on five carries including an electrifying 38 yard run. The Colts didn’t draft this kid with a plan to have him watch the action from the sidelines. He is battling incumbent RB Joesph Addai for playing time and touches.

Stats Slant: The Colts are insisting that Addai is still their RB1 but we are not buying into that at all. Whether it’s inconsistency on the field or his ability to stay healthy, we think Addia will be the one doing the watching by the third or fourth week of the season. Brown is currently at an ADP of 85 and 34^th amongst all running backs. Addai has a 44 ADP and is ranked 22^nd. We feel these numbers should be reversed and suggest that you don’t wait too long on Brown during your 2009 Draft.

Chris Henry  - WR Bengals

Could 2009 finally be the year this talented kid makes more headlines on the football field than he does on the police plotter? He spent a ton of time in the off-season with QB Carson Palmer and he’s in a contract year. Palmer loves Henry and has publicly stated that he has Randy Moss type ability if he can just stay clean. We would like Henry’s chances better if the Bengals didn’t replace T. J. Houshmanzadeh with Laveranues Coles in the off-season but it really is a “now or never” type situation. Henry caught seven passes for 100 yards and one TD in the Bengals first preseason game. Henry has seen his ADP go from 172 up to his current 143 and you can expect him to climb even higher as the preseason moves along.

Stats Slant: Chad Ochocinco and Coles are the entrenched WR1 and WR2 in Cincinnati but Henry is definitely making a statement for looks and touches. The Bengals don’t have TE to speak of so there will be balls for Henry as the Bengals WR3 and he is virtually unchallenged at the position. Henry is another grab and stash guy in the all important late middle rounds of your Draft.

Kenny Britt – WR Titans

In an offense that’s known more for it’s rushing attack than it’s passing attack Britt was a standout with five catches for 89 yards and a TD in the Titans first preseason game. There’s a lot of talk that the Titans want to more vertical this season and we believe it. Britt was dealing with a nagging hamstring injury through the Titans OTA’s and appeared to have aggravated the injury as he limped off the field late in the game.

Stats Slant: Hamstring injuries are never good and we are always hesitant to buy damaged goods. That being said, Britt is a beast and the huge target the Titans have been lacking for years. His ADP is currently at 248 and the hamstring injury may overshadow his production so you will get good value with Britt as a late in your Draft.

We are all over the preseason so please check back for more updates as we move closer to Week One of the 2009 NFL Season.

StatsGuru - VFFP Staff Writer

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