Pondering Preseason: Week Three

Week Three is typically the week that the starters see their most playing time in the preseason. Starters won’t see much more than one or two series in Week 4, so this week’s action is our final look at serious, in game action.

Chris Henry  - WR Bengals

Henry continued his amazing preseason with another two catches for 63 yards including a 54-yard TD. We’ve been high on Henry since July but, at this point, his ADP is getting somewhat over valued. Back on July 21, he was sitting at an ADP of 171. His preseason play has spring boarded him up to his current ADP of 110 and he is going off the board higher than starters like Justin Gage, Josh Morgan and Chris Chambers. That kind of an ADP is starting to push him out of our range. Remember, Henry will be a WR3 behind Ochocinco and Coles and he has also done most of his damage against second team defenses.

Ray Rice  -  RB Ravens

The stranglehold Rice has on the RB1 role in Baltimore got a little tighter after he put up 99 total yards on the weekend. His rushing numbers were far from impressive (32 yards, 10 rushes) but he looked like Jerry Rice hauling in 8 catches for 61 yards. It’s still somewhat concerning that Rice hasn’t locked up short yardage and goal line carries but neither have McGahee or McClain. Rice is another guy who has seen his ADP skyrocket over the past couple of weeks. He was at 105 back in July and is currently at an ADP of 50. He has surpassed guys like Derrick Ward, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Knowshon Moreno. We see this as mostly justified and feel that Rice is the real deal in Baltimore. We could see ourselves passing on a tier two QB and taking Rice with our 5th Round (RD) pick.

Jermichael Finley  - TE Packers

Finley is one guy we were really hoping would have a quiet preseason and remain under the radar. We talked about Finley in our Packers Team Preview back on July 19 and listed him as the Packer with the highest sleeper value. After his 4 catches for 28 yards and 2 TD in Week 3; he’s not under the radar any longer. In the deepest TE pool in Fantasy Football history, Finley just earned his first preseason ADP and currently sits at 211. We would be ecstatic to get him in RD 17 but you can expect his ADP to climb dramatically as we move towards Draft Day. Don’t be surprised when Finley goes off the board in the 12-13 RD, as the Packers offense has been lights out in the preseason. You can safely remove Donald Lee from your cheat sheet if you have not already done so as he won’t be much more than a blocking TE this season. This is another example of why we dislike preseason football so much.

Kevin Smith – RB Lions

Smith had another impressive effort on the weekend as he did a lot of damage against the Colts first team defense (FTD). Smith had 83 total yards in just one quarter of action. The Lions are playing it right by protecting Smith and have used him to perfection thus far in the preseason. Smith has been locked in as the 17 RB for two months now. From what we’ve seen he has moved up to a high end RB2 and he’s knocking on the door of top 12 running backs. It should be noted that the RB2 in Detroit is not even close to being decided and there probably won’t be a clear-cut handcuff for Smith all year long. Maurice Morris, Aveion Cason and Aaron Brown will all get touches in specialized roles. This means Smith is firmly entrenched as the Lions every down back, That is a rare and valuable role in today’s NFL and even more so in Fantasy Football. If forced, we would take the rookie Brown as the handcuff to Smith.

Jordy Nelson – WR Packers

Another Packer hits the board here as Nelson caught three passes for 88 yards including a 74-yard TD bomb on the weekend. Nelson is in a huge battle with James Jones for the WR3 role in Green Bay. Neither of them has gained any separation from the other and this may be the case through out the regular season. Nelson is more of a sure handed, possession type receiver while Jones has big play potential. Jones will be a late RD selection in most Drafts while Nelson will most likely open the season on the waiver wire in most Fantasy leagues.

Justin Gage – WR Titans

Gage is quietly having a decent preseason for the Titans. He missed their first game but has had TD’s in the last two games. This weekend he had 6 catches for 57 yards and TD. With Nate Washington on the shelf with a hamstring injury that could linger well into the season, Gage will get a ton of looks as QB Kerry Collins most trusted receiver. Rookie Kenny Britt started opposite of Justin Gage as the Titans WR2 this weekend and caught one pass for 19 yards. Since his breakout, first preseason game (5 C 89 YD 1 TD) Britt has since looked like the rookie that he is. With his ADP still hovering around 130 we think Gage is a steal in RD 11.

Samkon Gado – RB Rams

Gado is making his case to be the RB2 in St Louis behind Steven Jackson and is becoming a must have handcuff if you draft Jackson. On the weekend Gado had 33 yards rushing with a TD and added a second TD with a two-yard TD catch. Gado is in his second season with the Rams and has been a backup his entire six-year career. The competitors for the RB2 spot aren’t the most talented group and we are pretty sure the Rams are still beating the bushes in hopes of adding another RB to the fold. Gado however is the front-runner as we head into the final week of preseason action. No Rams RB other than S-Jax has an ADP at this point so you can probably wait until RD 18-20 to grab whoever wins the RB2 battle.

Bernard Scott – RB Bengals

Speaking of handcuffs, it looks like Scott has won the “battle” to back up Cedric Benson in Cincinnati. Scott was active again this weekend as he had eight carries for 54 yards. The excitement in Bengal land needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Carson Palmer has not shown he can stay healthy and we are not sold on CP2 or J.T. O’Sullivan at QB for the Bengals.

Rashard Mendenhall – RB Steelers

Mendenhall had his first full workload of the preseason with 16 carries for 48 yards and one TD. With Willie Parker nursing his injury d’jour (hamstring) Mendy got the start but a 3.0 YPC average isn’t going to make him the starter any time soon. It’s clear however that if you are going to dabble with any of the Steelers RB you better be prepared to have three of them. Parker and Melwede Moore are still very much in the picture in Pittsburgh.

P.J. Hill / Lynell Hamilton – RB Saints

Hill is fighting to make the Saints roster as an undrafted rookie out of Wisconsin. Both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush sat out the Saints whacking of the Raiders and Hill rushed for 83 yards with two TD on just 12 carries. Fellow rookie Lynell Hamilton (SD STATE) had 16 carries for 95 yards. They are both chasing Mike Bell to be the RB3 in New Orleans. Bell shined last weekend but only played in the first two series this past weekend. Bell will be a very late round selection while Hill and Hamilton will be left on the waiver wire come Draft Day. You need to know who these guys are though if you draft Pierre Thomas. One should separate from the other after the Saints final preseason game but, at this time, it’s too close to call.

Hakeem Nicks – WR Giants

Nicks lit up the Jets with six catches for 144 yards and 2 TD on the weekend. Both of Nicks TD catches were amazing but they both came against the Jets third team defense late in the fourth quarter. To this point the rookie out of North Carolina has been buried on the Giants depth chart as their WR5. While this performance should move him up to WR3 status it also makes an already murky situation even murkier when if comes to the G-Men’s receiving core. Domenik Hixon (105) and Steve Smith (129) are currently ahead of Hicks (152) in ADP. If Hicks fell to us in the 13 RD we would be hard pressed to pass on him. We have felt that Hixon at 105 has been over valued during the entire preseason and the performance by Nicks will only make him even more over valued.

Matt Hasselbeck – QB Seahawks

Hass had another awesome half of football this weekend as he lead the Seahawks on two TD drives against the Chiefs who looked like the “Chefs” of old. Hass was 19/25 for 216 yards and an INT to go along with the two TD passes. TE John Carlson caught 5 passes for 68 yards and one TD, T. J. Houshmandzadeh had 5 grabs for 60 yards and one TD while Nate Burleson pitched in 2 catches for 49 yards. Hass looks healthy and ready to return to his 2007 form. We have moved him into the top 12 in our player rankings that are currently being worked on.

Speaking of player rankings, don’t forget to check out our Golden Sheet that will be posted later this week. It will be a combination of ADP and Depth Chart and will be the most accurate ADP you will find anywhere on the net.

StatsGuru
VFFP Staff Writer

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