Welcome to our Week 13 Beast, Busts and Sleepers. In this feature we try to dig deep and look beyond the obvious. We look for players that may produce over their heads as our Beasts. We look for players who may underachieve as our Busts. We look for players who could surprise as our Sleepers.

THE CRITERIA

QB: 20 FP or more = Beast
RB/WR: 15 FP or more = Beast
TE/PK/DST: 10 FP or more = Beast

RECORD BY CATEGORY

Beasts: 58-50
Busts: 71-37
Sleepers: 27-66

THE BEASTS
Beyond the obvious:

QB: Matt Schaub, HOU at JAC – Schaub will bounce back against the Jaguars brutal pass defense.

QB: Kyle Orton, DEN at KC - Orton will rebound against the KC 30th ranked pass defense.

RB: Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs OAK – The Raiders have allowed, a league high, 17 rushing touchdowns.

RB: Matt Forte, CHI vs STL - A bust all year, Forte will have a big day in this one.

WR: Jeremy Maclin, PHI at ATL – Without Jackson, the rookie shines against the porous Falcons Pass D.

WR: Mike Sims-Walker, JAC vs HOU – Expect both team score a lot of points in this crucial divisional game.

TE: Heath Miller, PIT vs OAK – Miller was held pointless in Week 12. Expect double digits this week.

PK: Neil Rackers, ARI vs MIN - Rackers will get his chances against the Vikings bend don’t break D.

DST: Bears vs Rams - Bears will be an angry bunch and take it out on the limping Rams.

THE BUSTS
Studs to Duds:

QB: Vince Young, TEN vs IND – Hot streak stopped by a Colts pass D that has allowed just six TD.

QB: Chris Redman, ATL vs PHI - Redman posted 21 FP in relief of Ryan. The Eagles blitz will get to him.

RB: Ricky Williams, MIA vs NE – Patriots have been tough against the run, very weak against the pass.

RB: Jamal Charles, KC vs DEN - Broncos are refocused and desperate for a win against divisional rival.

WR: Roddy White, ATL vs PHI – With Redman running for his life, temper your expectations of White here.

WR: Donald Driver, GB vs BAL – Driver isn’t playing the Lions this week. This one will be low scoring.

TE: Jeremy Shockey, NO at WAS – Shockey has become a forgotten man in the Saints vertical attack.

PK: Shane Graham, CIN vs DET – Bengals will rack up touchdowns not field goals against the Lions.

DST: Vikings at Cardinals – Expect a shoot out in the desert if QB Kurt Warner plays for the Cards.

THE SLEEPERS:
Underachievers with a chance to shine:

QB: Alex Smith, SF vs SEA - Seahawks are dead last in pass defense. Smith is finding his grove.

RB: Rock Cartright, WAS vs NO – The Saints have been suspect in run defense allowing 14 rushing TD.

RB: Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs TB – Williams has a bad ankle, expect a monster day for J-Stew against the Bucs.

WR: Nate Burleson, SEA vs SF – Seattle will air it against the 49ers 29th ranked pass defense.

WR: Hines Ward, PIT vs OAK - Good week, bad week trend continues with a good week for Ward here.

TE: Kevin Boss, NYG vs DAL – Dallas has been suspect against the TE position and Boss will rebound from a dismal Week 12.

PK: Joe Nedney, SF at SEA - Nedney will get chances as the Niners move the ball on a suspect Seahawks defense.

DST: Patriots at Miami – Belichick will have the Patriots defense ready for Henne and the Dolphins.

FANTASY FACTS:

Drew Brees reminded everyone why he was the top QB selected in most drafts with his five TD passes on MNF. He has moved into second in overall scoring with 269.5 FP. If he outscores Aaron Rogers (284.5 FP) by 15.1 FP in Week 13 he will take the overall lead. Brees has a better match-up.

After scoring a combined 71.4 FP in Week 11 the youngsters came back to earth in Week 12. Matthew Stafford (12.5 FP) and Brady Quinn (14.8) combined for just 27.5 FP against the Packers and the Bengals respectively. Stafford has a bright future beyond 2009 while Quinn does not.

Titans RB Chris Johnson (264 FP) needs 44 FP to surpass the 2008 RB league leader. DeAngelo Williiams lead the RB position with 307.9 FP in 2008. Johnson has surpassed the 252 FP he scored as a rookie last season. He could be the #1 pick in most 2010 Drafts.

In addition to Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew (246.4), Ray Rice (243.3), Adrian Peterson (231.3) and Steven Jackson (201.8) should all surpass the 307.4 FP Williams had as the 2008 leader. None will come close to the most recent record of 483.3 FP posted by Ladainian Tomlinson in 2006.

With 322.5 FP, Andre Johnson led all WR Fantasy scoring last season. Currently sitting with 189.9 FP, he will need to average 26.5 FP per game to match is 2008 total. He has the talent, the QB and the schedule to do it.

Reggie Wayne is the current leader in WR scoring with 230.7 FP. He needs just 3.9 FP to surpass his 2008 total of 234.5 FP. He will set a career high (315.4 in ’07) with 84.8 FP over his last five games.

Last week we spoke highly of TE Brandon Pettigrew. He is now out for the season with a torn ACL. We weren’t so kind to Vernon Davis. He then went out and scored 16.18 FP against Jacksonville. Prior to Week 12, the Jaguars had allowed just 4.5 FP per game to the TE position.

It’s been a down year at the PK position in 2009. Through 12 weeks in 2008 the PK position had scored 3071 FP with a 255.9 per week average. Through 12 weeks in 2009 the PK position has scored 2667.7 FP with a 222.3 per week average.

The DST units have been somewhat better in 2009. Through 12 weeks they have totaled 2592 FP for a 216 per week average. Through 12 weeks in 2008 they totaled 2451 FP for a 204 per week average.

FANTASY FACTOR:

It was an outstanding week for the Fantasy Factor as we finished with a 14-2 record. Our Bad Bets were 4-4 and our Excellent Bets were 6-6. We missed on the Giants and Dolphins in the Medium Bets as they went 4-2. Our overall record has improved to 123-53.

Let’s take a look at what looks like a very tough Week 13.

A mismatch of Fantasy Beasts versus Fantasy Busts goes a long way to deciding the outcome of NFL games. If you wager on the outcome of games, especially on the Money Line, you need to consider the Fantasy Factor.

B: Bad Bet (21-23): These are not good games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should stay away from these games.

M: Middle Bet (44-18): These are decent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should still consider all the facts before picking from these games.

X: Excellent Bet (58-12): These are excellent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. Load up and enjoy!!!

HOW WE RANK WITH OTHERS:

VFFP Crew

Photo Credit: http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/z4Rk5MXjW3Y/Detroit+Lions+v+Houston+Texans/6jvhfgI6rSQ/Matt+Schaub

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