Welcome to our Week 14 Beast, Busts and Sleepers. In this feature we try to dig deep and look beyond the obvious. We look for players that may produce over their heads as our Beasts. We look for players who may underachieve as our Busts. We look for players who could surprise as our Sleepers.

THE CRITERIA

QB: 20 FP or more = Beast
RB/WR: 15 FP or more = Beast
TE/PK/DST: 10 FP or more = Beast

RECORD BY CATEGORY

Beasts: 61-56
Busts: 77-40
Sleepers: 30-71

THE BEASTS
Beyond the obvious:

QB: Joe Flacco, BAL vs DET - A bust in eight of twelve weeks, Flacco will torch the Lions.

QB: Donovan McNabb, PHI at NYG – The Eagles will attack the Giants suspect secondary.

RB: Fred Jackson, BUF at KC - Jackson will shine in a run dominated game.

RB: Jamal Charles, KC vs BUF - The Bills are giving up 28 FP PG to the RB position.

WR: Marques Colston, NO at ATL – His 11.3 FP average in the last five games will double here.

WR: DeSean Jackson, PHI at NYG – Back from injury, Jackson is a must start.

TE: Kevin Boss, NYG vs PHI – Eagles have surrendered 10.6 FP PG to the TE position.

PK: Dan Carpenter, MIA vs JAC – Lots of chances for Carpenter in this high scoring game.

DST: Titans vs Rams – The Titans average 6.3 FP PG. Expect 15 FP here.

THE BUSTS
Studs to Duds:

QB: Jason Campbell, WAS at OAK – Back to reality for Campbell in the Black Hole.

QB: Brett Favre, MIN vs CIN – Vikings will attack the Bengals injury depleted run defense.

RB: Kevin Smith, DET at BAL – The Lions could get shutout by the Ravens defense.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, SD at DAL – Bolts attack through the air to beat the Cowboys.

WR: Antonio Bryant, TB vs NYJ – Hot streak ends at two games for Bryant.

WR: Louis Murphy, OAK vs WAS – His 28.8 FP in Week 13, turns to 8.8 FP in Week 14.

TE: Fred Davis, WAS at OAK – The Raiders have not allowed a TE TD all season.

PK: John Kasay, CAR at NE – The conditions in Foxborough will be tough for Kasay.

DST: Broncos at Colts – The fifth ranked FP scoring DST takes a hit on the road.

THE SLEEPERS:
Underachievers with a chance to shine:

QB: David Garrard, JAC vs MIA – The Dolphins are allowing 19.5 FP per game to the QB position, Garrard is normally hot at home.

RB: Ryan Moats, HOU vs SEA – With Slaton on injured reserve, Moats get a chance as the starting RB in Houston.

RB: Lawrence Maroney, NE vs CAR – The Panthers have allowed 16 RB TD and are allowing 22.6 FP per game to the RB position.

WR: Derrick Mason, BAL vs DET – Mason will rebound from his Week 13 letdown (3.3 FP) and torch the Lions.

WR: Kevin Walters, HOU vs SEA – Walter is overdue for a big game and this one should be a high scoring affair.

TE: Dustin Keller, NYJ at TB – When the Jets do pass, backup QB Clemens will look for Keller.

PK: Rian Lindell, BUF at KC – Lindell will get a lot of chances against the leaky Chiefs defense.

DST: Jets at Buccaneers – The Bucs offense is a mess, Jets are desperate for a win.

FANTASY FACTS:

Week 13 saw some no name players dominate at the QB position. Bruce Gradkowski (29.4), Jason Campbell (29.2), Brady Quinn (26.3), Chad Henne (23.6) and Alex Smith (23.6) all finished in the top ten in QB FP scoring. Those five now have a combined 629.8 FP.

Brett Favre (19.7), Donovan McNabb (17.6), Peyton Manning (17.3), Matt Schaub (14.05) and Carson Palmer (13.7) didn’t crack the top 15 in QB FP scoring. Those five now have a combined 1193.5 FP.

After three strong weeks of scoring (774.7 average) the RB position posted just 699 FP in Week 13. Browns RB Jerome Harrison entered the week with 58 FP on the season. He led the RB position with 28.7 FP in Week 13.

Colts RB Joseph Addai dropped into the fourth round in most 2009 Drafts. Addai had 276.6 FP in 2007 but slumped to 142.0 FP in 2008. After posting 24.6 FP in Week 13, Addai has quietly moved up to sixth overall in RB scoring with 213.60 FP.

Like the QB position, some no name WR led the way in Week 13. Robert Meachem (34.2), Devin Thomas (29), Louis Murphy (28.8) and Devone Bess (27.7) finished in the top eight with a combined for 119.7 FP. Prior to Week 13 those four WR had a combined 305.7 total FP.

The WR position had their best week of the season with a combined 1126.8 FP in Week 13. The previous high was 1065.7 FP scored in Week 11. Larry Fitzgerald has taken over the top spot in WR scoring with 239.9 FP. Reggie Wayne dropped to second with 239.5 FP. It doesn’t get much closer than .4 FP in the battle for top spot!

After a quiet start to the season with a 10.81 FP average through ten games, TE Jason Witten has cranked it up over the past two weeks. Witten caught a career high 14 passes in Week 13 and scored 29.6 FP. He has averaged 22.6 FP in his last two games.

In his first game of the season Saints PK Garrett Hartley had 15.4 FP in Week 13. Hartley is on the waiver wire in most leagues. If you are hurting at the PK position grab Hartley now as he will finish the season strong in the potent Saints offense.

FANTASY FACTOR:

It was a rough week for the Fantasy Factor as we finished 10-6. The lone bright spot was a 4-1 record on the Bad Bets. That brings the record for the Bad Bets to 25-24 and we are now on the sunny side of .500 in all thee categories. The overall record now sits at 133-59.

We are looking for a rebound week so let’s take a look at Week 14!

A mismatch of Fantasy Beasts versus Fantasy Busts goes a long way to deciding the outcome of NFL games. If you wager on the outcome of games, especially on the Money Line, you need to consider the Fantasy Factor.

B: Bad Bet (25-24): These are not good games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should stay away from these games.

M: Middle Bet (46-22): These are decent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should still consider all the facts before picking from these games.

X: Excellent Bet (62-13): These are excellent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. Load up and enjoy!!!

HOW WE RANK AGAINST OTHERS:

VFFP Crew

Photo Credit:

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/XglxlYLkKqJ/Baltimore+Ravens+v+San+Diego+Chargers/