Welcome to our Week 5 Beast, Busts and Sleepers. We have hit the quarter pole of the season. In this feature we try to dig deep and look beyond the obvious. We look for players that may produce over their heads as our Beasts. We look for players who may underachieve as our Busts. We look for players who could surprise as our Sleepers.

Here is the breakdown of our forecasts through four weeks:

In a wacky first quarter of the season, we currently stand at 57-49 overall. Our record at the QB/RB/WR positions is 42-23. Our record at TE/PK/DST is struggling at just 15-26.

THE CRITERIA

QB: 20 FP or more = Beast
RB/WR: 15 FP or more = Beast
TE/PK/DST: 10 FP or more = Beast

RECORD BY CATEGORY

Beasts: 19-19
Busts: 26-12
Sleepers: 12-18

RECORD BY POSITION

QB: 14-7
RB: 12-10
WR: 16-6
TE: 7-8
PK: 4-9
DST: 4-9

Let’s take a look at Week 5!

THE BEASTS
Beyond the obvious

QB: Donovan McNabb PHI vs. TB - McNabb comes back and dismantles the Bucs.

QB: Ben Roethlisberger PIT at DET - Lions have allowed a league high 12 TD passes.

RB: Tim Hightower ARI vs. HOU - Texans have given up eight rushing TD.

RB: Clinton Portis WAS at CAR - Panthers last in run D, Portis finally scores.

WR: Andrea Johnson HOU at ARI - AJ gets back on track, Cards struggling against the pass.

WR: Santonio Holmes PIT vs. DET - Last TD was back in Week One; he gets one here.

TE: John Carlson SEA vs. JAC - At home, against 31st ranked Jags pass D.

PK: Rian Lindell CLE at BUF - Everyone gets healthy against the Browns.

D/ST: Eagles vs. Buccaneers - Eagles D exceeds Week 2 & 3 combined total.

THE BUSTS
Studs to Duds

QB: Kyle Orton DEN vs. NE - Orton faces his first true test of the season.

QB: Carson Palmer CIN at BAL - Ravens will be in a nasty mood after loss to the Pats.

RB: Michael Turner ATL at SF - 49ers have yet to give up a rushing TD.

RB: Joseph Addai IND at TEN - Colts air it out early and often against the Titans.

WR: Chad Ochocinco CIN @ BAL - It will be a long day on the road for the Bengals.

WR: Santana Moss WAS at CAR - Redskins will run all day against the Panthers.

TE: Marcedes Lewis JAC at SEA - Bad week, good week trend continues.

PK: Jason Hanson DET vs. PIT - Not many chances against the Steelers D.

D/ST: Texans at Cardinals - Expect a ton of points in this one.

SLEEPERS:
Underachievers with a chance to shine

QB: Wallace/Hasselbeck SEA vs. JAC - Whoever plays will torch the Jaguars.

RB: Marshawn Lynch BUF vs. CLE - Browns can’t stop the run.

RB: Brian Westbrook PHI vs. TB - Westbrook gets his first rushing TD of 2009.

WR: Nate Burleson SEA vs. JAC - Jaguars can’t stop the pass.

WR: Pierre Garcon IND at TEN - Titans concerned with Wayne, Garcon runs free.

TE: Randy McMichael STL vs. MIN - Vikings have allowed four TD to the TE position.

PK: Billy Cundiff CLE at BUF - Browns can move the ball on the Bills.

D/ST: Jets at Dolphins - Chad Henne is in for a long day against an angry Jets team.

FANTASY FACTS:

The Giants offence continues to be impressive. WR Steve Smith, once considered the “other” Steve Smith, had 120.4 FP in 2008. His 99.1 FP has him ranked second in Fantasy scoring in 2009. His average draft position was 105.

Meanwhile, Panthers WR Steve Smith has just 34.1 FP through three games after scoring 260.1 FP in 2008. The lack of production is largely due to the QB play in Carolina but this Smith had an average draft position of 18.

The Jaguars have completed 82 passes for 941 yards and 5 TD though four games. Despite not catching a ball in Week 1, Mike Sims-Walker has 19 catches for 278 yards and 3 TD. With 64.8 FP Sims-Walker has already exceeded his 2008 37.7 FP total.

Sophomore RB Rashard Mendenhall was benched in Week 3 for poor work ethics. With RB Willie Parker fighting turf toe in Week 4, the Steelers went back to Mendenhall and he responded with 33.10 FP. That’s the most FP in one game by any of the Steelers this season.

Colts QB Peyton Manning has four straight 300+ yard passing games to start the season for the first time in his career. Manning is averaging 24.88 FP per game and leads all scorers with 99.5 FP.

49ers TE Vernon Davis has gone from the doghouse to the penthouse in San Fran. Davis had 79.9 FP in 2008. In the 49ers new, TE friendly, offense he has 56.10 FP in just four games.

After starting the season with nine passing TD in their first two games, the Saints have had two straight games without a passing TD. That won’t continue but the Saints have become one of the most well rounded teams in the NFL.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has averaged 12.2 FP over the past two weeks. The Vikings roll into St. Louis to play the Rams this weekend and AP will regain the RB FP lead by the end of the Week 5 action.

NO, IND, NYG, MIN and DEN are all 4-0 and have scored 2352.50 FP. STL, CLE, TB, KC and TEN are all 0-4 and have scored just 1576.95 FP.

Of the teams that have played four games, the Saints lead the way with 525.95 FP. The Raiders sit in last place with 234.60 FP.

The 49ers D/ST have 55 FP so far in 2009. They scored just 92 total FP in 2008. Michael Turner owners beware! The 49ers have held opposition RB to 85 yards or less and no TD through four games.

Bye Weeks are upon us! There are a lot of Studs sitting out in Week 5. The Bears, Packers, Saints and Chargers are all off this week. Plan accordingly.

FANTASY FACTOR:

The Fantasy Factor was 10-4 in Week 4 bringing our overall record to 45-17. Let’s keep it rolling in Week 5!

A mismatch of Fantasy Beasts versus Fantasy Busts goes a long way to deciding the outcome of NFL games. If you wager on the outcome of games, you need to consider the Fantasy Factor.

B: Bad Bet (7-9): These are not good games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should stay away from these games.

M: Middle Bet (19-4): These are decent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. You should still consider all the facts before picking from these games.

E: Excellent Bet (19-4): These are excellent games to select a winner from based on the Fantasy Factor. Load up and enjoy!!!

	B	M	E		B	M	E		B	M	E
Falcons @				Cowboys @		X		Raiders @
49ers	X			Chiefs				Giants			X
	B	M	E		B	M	E		B	M	E
Texans @				Browns @				Vikings @			X
Cardinals	X			Bills		X		Rams
	B	M	E		B	M	E		B	M	E
Jets @	X			Redskins @				Buccaneers @
Dolphins				Panthers		X		Eagles			X
					B	M	E		B	M	E
				Jaguars @		X		Steelers @			X
				Seahawks				Lions
					B	M	E		B	M	E
				Patriots @		X		Bengals @
				Broncos				Ravens			X
									B	M	E
								Colts @			X
								Titans

VFFP Crew

Photo Credit: nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/2009/01/08/2009-01-08_its_the_city_of_brotherly_lovehate_for_d-1.html