2006 RECORD: 9-7  -  2007 RECORD: 4-12  -  2008 RECORD: 2-14

Fantasy Stats Scoring System

Total Team Fantasy Points (TTFP): 1426.8 FP – 26 of 32

KEY ADDITION: QB Matt Cassel (NE)

KEY LOSS: TE Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

KEY DRAFT PICK: DE Tyson Jackson – Louisiana State University

COACHES: There was a lot of movement in KC this past off-season. Herm Edwards is out as the Chiefs Head Coach and has been replaced by former Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Chan Gailey returns as the Chiefs OC for his second season with the team. Gunther Cunningham has moved on to the Lions and Haley brought former Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast with him to be the Chiefs new DC. These guys certainly have their work cut out for them.

STATS SLANT: There’s no doubt that this group is very offensive minded. There have been a ton of player moves in KC during the off-season but we wonder how productive the additions will be and how much the deletions will hurt. Fantasy owners love coaches with vertical minds and Haley certainly fits that mold. The Chiefs coaching crew is another “wait and see” group that we will monitor during training camp.

QUARTERBACK (QB): The Chiefs made news on what seemed to be a daily basis during the 2009 free agent period. The biggest move was the acquisition of “one year wonder” QB Matt Cassel from NE. He had thrown 22 passes in three seasons before getting thrown into the fire when Tom Brady went down in the first quarter of Week 1 in 2008. Ironically, it was the Chiefs who ended Brady’s season. His 301 FP was 26 FP better than Brady posted in 2006 and just 1.57 FP less than Brady’s average from 2001-07. We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again; It’s the SYSTEM in NE that makes quarterbacks shine. Much like Brady did in 2007, Cassel scored in bunches last season. He had four 3-TD games (DEN, NYJ, MIA, ARI) and one 4-TD game (OAK). That accounted for 16 of his 21 PTD. The flip side of that is the six games where he didn’t throw a TD pass at all. Wait, it gets worse. Cassel was sacked an NFL high 47 times last year. The O-Line protection in KC is worse than it was in NE plus he will be asked to do more with less. The loser in the acquisition of Cassel (besides the Chiefs) is Tyler Thigpen who posted 260 FP in 14 games in 2008. Thigpen is not happy about the situation and you can’t blame him. He kept the Chiefs in several games last season with some very gusty performances.

STATS SLANT: The Chiefs say it will be an open competition in camp to decide the QB1 in KC this season but we aren’t buying that. Cassel is scheduled to make $14.651 million this season while Thigpen will make $460,000. Simple math decides that “competition”. Plus, Cassel worked with the first team offense during mini camp while Thigpen worked with the second team. We currently have Cassel ranked as a mid range QB2. That being said we don’t see Cassel finishing the season as the Chiefs starting QB.  Whether it’s from poor play or an injury due to the Chiefs brutal O-Line, he could lose his job by midseason. If you take a chance on Cassel, you had better back him up with Thigpen. Better yet, grab and stash him on your bench from the owner who drafted Cassel.

RUNNING BACK (RB): Injuries and a lack of quality at the RB position cost the Chiefs dearly in 2008. They managed just nine rushing TD in 2008 and Thigpen scored three of them. That left Larry Johnson with five TD and Kolby Smith with one TD. Jamaal Charles had zero TD on 67 rush attempts while playing injured for most of the season. Maybe LJ needed another year to get over his foot injury or maybe he is done at the age of 30. Smith is still not 100% from a knee sprain that ended his season in Week 9 but says he will be ready by the preseason. Charles is 100% recovered from the nagging ankle injury he struggled with for most of the 2008 season. At age 30 (and with his play in decline) LJ won’t be much more than a two-down back in 2009. Look for Charles to be the third down back. We expect Haley will use Charles much like he used J.J. Arrington in Arizona only with more looks and touches.

STATS SLANT: There’s not a lot to see here. The Chiefs want to be a vertical football team in 2009, the O-Line doesn’t open up enough holes and the RB talent is not very good. Just ignore this situation all together. If pressed, consider LJ as a mid range RB3 and get Charles as his handcuff. If Charles does become a more involved version of J.J. his value could be greater than that of LJ by seasons end.

WIDE RECEIVER (WR): Dwayne Bowe improved by 30 FP in 2008 (230 FP) from his 2007 rookie season (200 FP). Often injured Mark Bradley is currently ranked as the Chiefs WR2 and would line up in the flanker position (Haley used Boldin as the flanker in ARI). There’s a cast of thousands battling for the WR3 role or just trying to make the team. That includes incumbent Devard Darling, Bobby Engram who came over from Seattle and Terrance Copper who came over from Baltimore. Jeff Webb, Quinten Lawrence (NE), C.J. Jones and Rodney White are also in the mix in KC. Engram is close to the end of his career but has a shot at the WR3 slot position role and could be a safety valve for Cassel. That would make Engram the KC version of the Patriots Wes Welker who caught 109 passes from Cassel in 2008 (Welker had 111 catches but two were from Brady in Week 1). We aren’t saying Engram has a chance at 111 receptions but 50 catches isn’t out of the question.

STATS SLANT: The loss of Gonzalez means that Bowe will see more targets in his third season but he will also see a lot more double coverage as well. We expect a modest spike in Bowe’s numbers but nothing dramatic and currently rank him as a high end WR2. After that it’s going to be several rounds before Mark Bradley gets selected as a high end WR6.

TIGHT END (TE): After ten years with the Chiefs Tony Gonzalez is now in Atlanta. The Chiefs didn’t do anything to replace him during the off-season or at the 2009 NFL Draft. In Haley’s offensive system the TE is used for blocking more than anything else so we understand why the need was ignored. Brad Cottam is currently at the top of the five-player TE depth chart in KC because of his blocking skills. Former Dallas TE Tony Curtis will probably end up as the Chiefs pass catching TE but anything more than 30 receptions from him would be a shock.

PLACE KICKER (PK): Connor Barth took over as the Chiefs PK in Week 8 last season and hit on 10 of his 12 FGA and all 25 of his XPA. The Chiefs selected Ryan Succop out of South Carolina as “Mr. Irrelevant 09” with the last pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. We’re not sure why they picked him as he missed on 10 of 30 FGA as a senior at SC in 2008.

STATS SLANT: Barth will be the starter in 2009 but that’s not saying much. Just ignore the PK position in Kansas City all season long in 2009.

DEFENSE-SPECIAL TEAMS (D/ST): The Chiefs D/ST was brutal in 2008. How brutal were they? They had just 10 sacks all season. That’s the lowest total since the stat has been tracked. The previous low was 11 by the Ravens in just nine games during the strike shortened 1982 season. They also recorded a meager 13 INT and finished 28th in TD allowed with a generous 49.

STATS SLANT: The Chiefs used their first three picks of the 2009 NFL Draft on their defense. The acquisitions will help some, but not enough.

RED FLAG: Cassel and his player agent, David Dunn, have asked for the sun, moon and the stars as a contract extension. GM Scott Pioli balked at the price and no deal has been made. If a deal isn’t reached prior to the season Cassel will have the added pressure of not only trying to win games but to win a new contract as well. His deal in KC is currently for just one year (2009: $14.65 million, 2010: Free Agent). Don’t forget that the Chiefs still have one of the worst O-Lines in all of football as well.

Keep a pre-season eye on: The battle for the WR2 and WR3 positions. How the Chiefs dole out the RB touches.

Stats Sleeper: If somehow, someway, the Chiefs can make something out of nothing with their O-Line, second year RB Jamaal Charles could have a Fantasy impact in KC. That’s a BIG IF though.

Strength Of Schedule: 17 of 32

Summary: We didn’t like the trade that brought Cassel to KC when it was announced and after this preview we like it even less. The new vertical offense should be exciting, but it’s going to be a very long season in KC once again in 2009. Oh well, KC is still one of the best tailgating cities in the NFL, so Chief fans have that going for them.

StatsGuru

Photo Credit : http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/13-SSS9tCFi/Kansas+City+Chiefs+v+Chicago+Bears/S72rWs1kClq/Larry+Johnson