2006 RECORD: 3-13  -  2007 RECORD: 7-9  -  2008 RECORD: 0-16

Fantasy Stats Scoring System

Total Team Fantasy Points (TTFP): 1303.8 FP – 27 of 32

KEY ADDITION: WR Bryant Johnson (SF)

KEY LOSS: QB Jon Kitna (DAL)

KEY DRAFT PICK: QB Matthew Stafford – Georgia

COACHES: After going 0-16 last season there’s no question that changes were needed in Detroit. The Lions front line coaching staff will all be entering their first year in 2009. Jim Schwartz brings his hard nosed, no nonsense attitude with him from Tennessee where he was the Titans defensive coordinator for eight years. One of Schwartz’s first moves was to bring in offensive coordinator Scott Linehan who spent the last three years as the Rams Head Coach. As the OC/QB coach in Minnesota from 2002 to 2004, Linehan directed the Vikings to NFL OA rankings of second, first and fourth in total offense. Gunther Cunningham takes over as the defensive coordinator in Detroit after serving in the same capacity for the Chiefs over the past five years.

STATS SLANT: StatsGuru (life long Lions Fan) likes the addition of all three of these no nonsense coaches who bring a wealth of experience to the table. We expect this group of coaches will run an exciting offense that will put points on the board in 2009. If their O-Line can hold up and if the additions on defense pan out, the Lions have the coaches in place to make a run at an 8-8 season.

QUARTERBACK (QB): It’s been decades since the Lions have had a top notch QB. You have to go back to 1971 and Greg Landry to find the last Lions QB that played in the Pro Bowl. Some would argue that the Lions haven’t had a true star at the QB position since Bobby Lane in the 1950’s and they would be right! The rumored statement “the Lions will not win for 50 years” supposedly uttered by Lane (when he was traded to the Steelers in 1958), has now expired. After going 0-16 in 2008 (the last year of the curse) there’s no way to go but up! So is it out with the old and in with the new? Not totally. The Lions took QB Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Some like the pick while some don’t. We are going to take a wait and see attitude. Interestingly, Stafford attended Highland Park High School in Dallas, the same high school Booby Lane attended. OK enough Lions history. The Lions say there’s open competition for the starting QB role in Detroit between Dante Culpepper and Stafford. We don’t buy it and fully expect Culpepper will be under center when the season opens. Culpepper shed some pounds in the off-season (he played at 290 last year and is down to 265), his injury woes seem to be behind him and he has been reunited with his former OC Scott Linehan. There is also plenty of pop left in his cannon of a right arm. Culpepper’s last great year was 2004 in Minnesota with Linehan as his OC when he had 4,717 PYD and 39 TD. Linehan left for Miami in 2005, Culpepper’s injury woes started and he hasn’t been the same since. Stafford will back up Culpepper to start the season and, if the Lions stumble out of the gate, he will get his shot as the starter after the Lions Week 7 bye.

STATS SLANT: It is very difficult to forecast how this will all shake out. In his 11th year, this is basically the last NFL lifeline Culpepper has left. He will almost certainly be out of Detroit after the 2009 season as he will be a UFA and Stafford is the Lions QB of the future. Culpepper would love to show he still has what it takes in order to land a gig with another NFL team in 2010. With so much uncertainty swirling in Detroit, no Lions QB should be considered as your Fantasy QB1. You should also remember that the Lions are still relatively weak on the O-Line though they are getting better. Take Culpepper as a low end QB2 and don’t be surprised if he comes through with a good year in 2009. Stafford will watch from the sidelines in his rookie season. Culpepper certainly has the offensive weapons around him to get the job done.

RUNNING BACK (RB): The Lions have been searching for a quality RB since Barry Sanders retired prior to the 1999 season. Sanders retirement was a move that stunned the football world. It’s virtually impossible to be the “next” Barry Sanders but the Lions have a pretty good RB in second year back Kevin Smith. Smith is big at 6’ 1” and 211. In his rookie season, Smith got better as the year went on. He had 305 RYD through the first eight games and 671 RYD in the last eight games. He also caught 39 passes for 289 yards last season. That’s not bad for a rookie playing behind the worst O-Line in all of football and for a team that trailed in every game during 2008. The Lions brought Maurice Morris over from Seattle and he will serve as the backup to Smith. That role is very familiar to Morris as he was the backup for Shaun Alexander during his glory days in Seattle. While Morris has never been a “star” NFL RB, being around Alexander for all those years makes him a valuable commodity. Plus, if Smith should go down to injury, Morris is more than capable to step in and take over.

STATS SLANT: We love the fact that Smith is the undisputed RB1 in Detroit and that they brought Morris in as a mentor who will give him a breather from time to time. There is no RBBC here. OC Linehan used Steven Jackson as the feature back in St. Louis and he will employ the same strategy in Detroit. We think that many owners will sleep on Smith on Draft Day but you shouldn’t let him slip too far. A plus 1,600 TYD and 14 TD season is not out of the realm of possibility for Smith in 2009.  We currently have him ranked as a low end RB1 with great upside. If you draft Smith make sure you grab Morris as the handcuff.

UPDATE: July 22, 2009 – WR Ronald Curry traded to the St. Louis Rams for DE Orien Harris.

WIDE RECEIVER (WR): The Lions come into 2009 with a decent receiving core. Calvin Johnson is the undisputed WR1 in Detroit after the 2008 mid-season trade of Roy E. Williams to Dallas. The Beast is just that, a BEAST! Despite everything that went on in Detroit last season, C J was still the third highest OA WR and 13th highest OA Fantasy scorer. You can’t dismiss those accomplishments as anything less than a stud being a stud or a Beast being a Beast. Underachieving WR Bryant Johnson comes over from the 49ers (via the Cardinals) and assumes the WR2 role in Detroit. As with virtually every 49er, Bryant struggled last season and has yet to mature into the star many thought he would be coming out of Penn State. Facing single coverage (with C J on the other side) all season will certainly help B J. Ronald Curry comes over from Oakland and will assume the slot receiver role. Curry has also been an underachiever during his injury plagued, seven year NFL career. Rookie Derrick Williams, out of Penn State, could challenge Curry for the slot position role but will probably settle in as the #1 return man for the Lions in 2009.

STATS SLANT: Take any of the top 15 QB in the league, have them chucking the pigskin to the Beast and C J would be the overall WR1 in the NFL. Given his situation in Detroit, you have to bump him down some. He will still be one of the first three WR to go off the board in most 2009 Drafts. B J should be considered as a mid range WR5 with potential to move up to a low end WR3. Leave Curry on the waiver wire until he shows something.

TIGHT END (TE): For the first time since Charlie Sanders (1968-77) the Lions have a TE that will be a star in the NFL. The Lions shocked just about everyone when they selected Brandon Pettigrew out of Oklahoma State with their 2nd pick in the 1st round (20) of the 2009 Draft. Pettigrew has the rare combination of being an outstanding pass catcher with even better blocking skills and technique. He doesn’t have great speed but the Lions don’t need speed at the TE position with Johnson & Johnson stretching the field.

STATS SLANT: Pettigrew will be the Lions starting every-down TE as a rookie. That being said, his value will be greater to his NFL owners than it is to his Fantasy owners. Rank him as a high end TE3 capable of filling in during bye weeks and watch how he progresses at the pro level.

PLACE KICKER (PK): Jason Hanson is back for his 11th season as the Lions PK. In the last eight years only six kickers have produced more FP than Hanson (946, 118 APY). In 2008 Hanson set a league record by nailing all eight of his FGA of 50+ yards. He hit on 95.5 of his FGA and his only miss was in Week 10 against the Jaguars. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he had just 22 attempts all season and added just another 25 PA. That was good enough for 116 FP and 27th OA at the PK position.

STATS SLANT: We expect the Lions will score more in 2009 but that it won’t be enough to move Hanson up very much. Leave him on the waiver wire on Draft Day 2009.

DEFENSE-SPECIAL TEAMS (D/ST): The D/ST has been the Lions Achilles-heal for years now. They did make some moves in the off-season to help the defense and having a better offense will also help. It won’t be enough to improve very much on their 2008, 30th OA ranking though (78 FP).

RED FLAG: Last years 0-16 record could have this new coaching staff looking to be satisfied with any improvement at all. They could also be looking towards the 2010 Draft already. You know Linehan will want to test drive Stafford but we hope he doesn’t set his old QB Culpepper up for failure. We can’t see him doing it and it wouldn’t be right, but anything is possible. Also, if Culpepper isn’t going to be the starter, you should bump everyone down some and take a “wait and see” attitude.

Keep a pre-season eye on: The overall health and physical shape of QB Dante Culpepper, his performance in camp and then into the preseason. We feel Culpepper is the Lions best option to win in 2009.

Stats Sleepers: RB Kevin Smith, WR Bryant Johnson

Strength Of Schedule: 21 of 32

Summary: It’s very surprising that a team that has lost 23 of their last 24 games can get this much Fantasy ink. The truth is; there is talent on this football team. The Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens were a combined 10-48 in 2007 but they improved to a combined 33-15 in 2008. The Dolphins alone went from 1-15 to 11-5. It’s true that the Dolphins have the greatest living mind in football in Bill Parcells and the Lions don’t, but they are headed in the right direction.

StatsGuru

Photo Credit: zimbio.com/pictures/kginPLqFvjQ/Detroit+Lions+v+Carolina+Panthers/gSzY76_33g6/Calvin+Johnson