2006 RECORD: 8-8  -  2007 RECORD: 7-9  -  2008 RECORD: 4-11-1

Fantasy Stats Scoring System

Total Team Fantasy Points (TTFP): 1168.4 FP – 31 of 32

KEY ADDITION: WR Laveranues Coles (NYJ)

KEY LOSS: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)

KEY DRAFT PICK: OT Andre Smith – Alabama

COACHES: The Bengals coaching staff returning intact is even more shocking than the Bills coaching crew returning. Between the losses, disgruntled players and a full police blotter, the Bengals have been a mess for several years. They have not had a winning record since 2005 under this crew. Marvin Lewis enters his seventh year as the Bengals Head Coach. Bob Bratkowski returns for his ninth season as the Bengals offensive coordinator. Mike Zimmer enters his second season as the Bengals defensive coordinator.

STATS SLANT: The Bengals are talking the talk when they say they want to have a vertical offense in 2009. Can they walk the walk?  This staff has their work cut out for them and can’t be recommended. Lewis is a prime candidate to be the first HC fired in 2009.

QUARTERBACK (QB) Carson Palmer and his doctors decided that rest, not “Tommy John” surgery, was needed to heal his ailing elbow during the 2008 season. As a result, he played in just four games last season. In early spring workouts it’s been reported that Palmers elbow is close to 100% healthy. We will reserve judgment on that until we see him in action in the preseason. Palmer is a former stud Fantasy QB as is evident by his 305 FP average in the three years prior to 2008. We will be watching this situation very closely.

STATS SLANT: Regardless if the elbow is 100% or not, who is Palmer going to be throwing the ball to? We will discuss the WR situation later, but it’s not all that encouraging. Palmer will be a risk/reward selection for the owner brave enough to select him. He will come in as a value pick but shouldn’t be taken higher than a very low end QB1. Former 49ers QB J.T. O’Sullivan will be Palmers backup in 2009. Given Palmers injury history, J.T. is a must have handcuff.

RUNNING BACK (RB): The Bengals have been searching for a quality, starting, RB for a couple of years now. They haven’t had a RB in the top ten (based on total rushing yards) since Rudi Johnson rushed for 1,309 in 2006. Last year they tried a couple of backs before settling on Cedric Benson. In ten starts in 2008, Benson had 896 total yards and two touchdowns. Brian Leonard comes over from the Rams and is projected to be the Bengals 3rd down back. He will compete with Kenny Watson, DeDe Dorsey, Bernard Scott, and James Johnson for playing time. Out of this group we would watch Bernard Scott and take him as a sleeper pick late in the Draft.

STATS SLANT: There isn’t a slower backfield anywhere in the NFL than this group. There also isn’t a backfield that you should trust any less than this one. Benson had a nice finish as he averaged 19 FP in the Bengals three game winning streak to close out the 2008 season. Don’t read much into that though as the games were against WAS, CLE and KC. This is an even riskier, risk/reward situation than the one with Palmer. No Bengal RB should be trusted as anything more than a mid range RB3 and that “award” goes to Cedric Benson.

WIDE RECEIVER (WR): The waters keep getting murkier as we dive into the WR situation in Cincinnati. T.J. has moved on to Seattle, Chad Johnson is officially Chad Ochocinco, while Coles is 31 and coming to a new offense. Ochocinco was posting an average of 273 FP a season (over six years) before changing his name and slumping to 131 FP in 2008. Coles has averaged 207 FP over the last eight years. Last season (NYJ) he posted 198 FP. That was 42 FP better than 2007 (156 FP) but still 40 FP less than his 238 FP in 2006. The Bengals put the C on Chris Henry’s uniform before their final preseason game against the Colts in 2008. We aren’t sure if they were trying to instill some confidence in this troubled kid or if the C stood for something else. Either way, it didn’t work out too good. Henry ended up playing in ten games last season and scored 95 FP. Andre Caldwell and a cast of thousands are also “battling” for roster spots at the WR position.

STATS SLANT: The theme throughout the Bengals roster to this point has been risk/reward. With the receiving core, it’s more of a Boom or Bust scenario. We feel that you are taking a chance with all of these guys. So many things have to fall into place for good things to happen. Palmer has to stay healthy, Benson has to make teams respect the run and the OL has to protect Palmer. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) was sacked 38 times in 12 games for the Bengals in 2008. As well, Ochocinco has to be able to earn respect as a receiving threat. Those are all pretty tall orders. We suggest Coles as a high end WR3, Ochocinco as a high end WR5 with potential to move up. Leave the rest of the Bengal wide outs to someone else.

TIGHT END (TE): The Bengals liked TE Ben Utecht and lured him away from the Colts but he was a bust in 2008. So, in typical Bengal fashion, they drafted TE Chase Coffman with the 34th pick (98) in the 3rd round. Coffman is a mirror image of Utecht in that he has good hands but he’s slower than mud going uphill. Coffman broke his foot at the Alamo Bowl to end his career with Missouri (Utecht was hampered with a foot injury for most of 2008).

STATS SLANT: Palmer has never had a reliable TE in his entire career and that isn’t going to change with either of these guys. There are back-up TE that you should consider as a TE2 before any Bengal TE In that vein, Billy Miller NO and Todd Heap BAL come to mind.

PLACE KICKER (PK): Shayne Graham had been one of the most prolific kickers in the NFL during his five seasons with the Bengals. As with every Bengal in 2008, Graham saw his numbers shrink from 144 FP in 2007 to just 91 FP points in 2008.

STATS SLANT: We missed badly on Graham last season but we see the Bengals being able to move the ball somewhat in 2009. Consider Graham as a high end PK2 who could move up to a low end PK1 by the start of the season.

DEFENSE-SPECIAL TEAMS (D/ST): The Bengals D/ST had a decent four-year run from 2004 through 2007 (127 FP average) but came in with just 89 FP in 2008. 25 teams scored more FP than this unit last season.

STATS SLANT: The Bengals D/ST won’t have to spend as much time on the field this season but it won’t matter. They shouldn’t be on anyone’s opening day roster for the Fantasy Football 2009 Season.

RED FLAG: The Bengals entire team is one BIG RED FLAG.

Keep a pre-season eye on: Palmer’s elbow and Ochocinco’s attitude.

Stats Sleeper: If Palmer is 100% and teams have to respect the Bengals passing attack, the addition of OT Andre Smith should be a boost for RB Cedric Benson. If it all works out, Benson will be a huge value pick. If he can walk his talk, Ochocinco could be a great value pick. He hasn’t shown he can over the past two seasons though.

Strength Of Schedule: 22 of 32

Summary: It will be Boom or Bust with virtually every Bengal in 2009. Take value if you can get it late in the Draft but remember, this is a classic “buyer beware” situation.

StatsGuru

Photo Credit: http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/AyWV6-lJLdS/Cincinnati+Bengals+v+New+York+Giants/a6tXgcStJDZ/Carson+Palmer