2006 RECORD: 7-9  -  2007 RECORD: 7-9  -  2008 RECORD: 7-9

Fantasy Stats Scoring System

Total Team Fantasy Points: 1446.3 FP – 23 of 32

KEY ADDITION: WR Terrell Owens (DAL)

KEY LOSS: TE Robert Royal (CLE)

KEY DRAFT PICK: DE Aaron Maybin – Penn State

COACHES: In a year of coaching overhauls, we are shocked that the Bills three front line coaches are all returning for the 2009 season. Dick Jauron enters his third full season as Head Coach. Turk Schonert begins his second season as the Bills Offensive Coordinator. Perry Fewell enters his fourth season as the Bills Defensive Coordinator.

STATS SLANT: The Bills started the 2008 season like a house on fire but were basically extinguished when QB Trent Edwards went down in Week 5 against the Cardinals. It will be interesting to see how this coaching crew handles T.O. If the Bills start slow, Jauron will be this year’s first coaching casualty. We are hesitant to recommend this crew as anything more than a very low end coaching staff from a Fantasy perspective.

QUATERBACK (QB): Trent Edwards had his 2008 season moving along nicely until Week 5 when he was crushed by Cardinals DB Adrian Wilson and suffered a concussion. In the previous four games he was averaging 16 points a week but he was never the same after that hit. Many are talking about the addition of WR Terrell Owens helping Edwards 2009 production but we view T.O. as the QB Killer he is. Don’t believe us? Just ask Garcia, McNabb and Romo. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick comes over from the Bengals and will backup Edwards in 2009.

STATS SLANT: Edwards came into the league with all kinds of potential but he has never broken through. Some of the blame goes to the Bills offensive system, but some of the blame must also be placed on Edwards who just isn’t an elite NFL QB (in two seasons Edwards has never had a 300 yard passing game). Consider Edwards as a mid range QB2 on Draft Day.

RUNNING BACK (RB): Last year at this time we said this about RB Marshawn Lynch: “Let’s hope Coach Jauron sits him in a cubicle and makes him read all of Cedric Benson’s press clippings, 100 times each”. Apparently Jauron doesn’t read our blog because Lynch got into more trouble with the law during this past off-season. This time it was a weapons charge. He’s suspended (though appealing) for the first three games of the 2009 season and this is strike two for this talented RB. Make no mistake; missing three games is a serious blow to a players Fantasy stock. It can be the difference between a 280-point season and a 225-point season. Based on ‘08 RB scoring that’s the difference between being the #3 RB or the #15 RB (9 OA or 49 OA). RB Fred Jackson has finally agreed on a new contract with the Bills and will start on Monday Night in Week One against the Patriots. Versatile RB Dominic Rhodes is also in the mix in Buffalo. Rhodes hits the “30 Wall” this season, has two guys ahead of him and will be challenged by RB Aavier Omon for the RB3 spot in Buffalo. The Bills will find a way to use him but it won’t be on a regular basis. It would take injures to Lynch and Jackson for him to have any Fantasy value.

STATS SLANT: We see the Bills as being a mess this season and we can’t recommend any of their RB as anything more than a mid range RB2. Let Lynch fall to you and make sure you handcuff him with Jackson as a low end RB4

WIDE RECEIVER (WR): The Bills made the biggest off-season “flash” move by taking a chance on WR Owens. The guy has a nice career (average 270 points over the last eight seasons) but we don’t see this working out at all. With QB Edwards already dealing with confidence issues how much of a help (hindrance) will T.O. be bitching for the ball? Lee Evans will move to the WR2 role for the Bills and that should actually be a good thing for him. Steve Johnson is ahead of Josh Reed and James Hardy for the Bills WR3 spot.

STATS SLANT: The Bills are reported to be moving to a no-huddle offense this season under second year OC Turk Schonert. Is it the return of the vaunted K-Gun (E-Gun) offense in Buffalo? Accuracy and intelligence are QB Edwards’ best attributes but how it all works out remains to be seen. For the first time in eight years, Owens drops out of the top ten ranking for receivers and should be considered as a high end WR2. Consider Evans as high end WR3.

TIGHT END (TE): The Bills drafted TE Shawn Nelson out of Southern Miss in the 2009 Draft. At 6’ 5” and 240 Nelson is a pass catching TE rather than a blocking TE and he will start on opening day. TE Derek Schouman will be the back up to Nelson.

STATS SLANT: Keep an eye on Nelson to see how much the Bills use him during spring training and the pre-season. He has the potential to be a TE sleeper pick and should be a value selection as a low end TE2 on Draft Day.

PLACE KICKER (PK): Rian Lindell enters into his 7th season (9th OA) with the Bills.

STATS SLANT: Lindell is a dependable PK and should be viewed as mid range PK2 for the 2009 season.

DEFENSE-SPECIAL TEAMS (D/ST): The Bills D/ST ranked 18th OA in Fantasy scoring at the position in 2008. The addition of DE Aaron Maybin will bring some much needed help to the Bills D/ST and their sack total should go up somewhat in 2009.

STATS SLANT: The Bills are still a long way off from being a relevant Fantasy D/ST option. Leave them on the waiver wire in 2009.

RED FLAG: Terrell Owens has ruined every team he has ever been with and the Bills schedule is brutal. Tread lightly when selecting any of the Bills players.

Keep a pre-season eye on: Are the Bills serious about moving to a no-huddle offense? If they are and Edwards can pull it off, bump up the QB, WR and TE position players somewhat.

Stats Sleeper: TE Shawn Nelson, WR Steve Jackson.

Strength Of Schedule: 6 of 32

Summary: The Bills are a mess from a Fantasy Point perspective and we suggest you just avoid this situation all together.

StatsGuru

Photo Credit : http://www.torontosun.com/sports/2008/09/08/6704521.html